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MLB home run props for 5/7: France will Ty one on
By Jack Dougherty,
12 days ago
We were unable to cash a home run prop on Monday, but we're feeling good about our chances on Tuesday with friendly weather and wind conditions around MLB. Here are our three favorite HR props for Tuesday night's slate.
Salvador Perez has turned back the clock in an impressive way to start the season. The 33-year-old is batting .328 with a team-leading eight home runs and a .951 OPS through 35 games. He also ranks fifth in MLB in barrel rate, so he's a great target in home run props. The wind at Kaufmann Stadium will be blowing straight out to center field on Tuesday night, and Milwaukee Brewers starter Colin Rea is surrendering the 17th-highest fly ball rate and the 19th-highest barrel rate among qualified pitchers.
Sportsbooks still aren't giving Brandon Marsh enough credit for his strong start to the season. The Philadelphia Phillies outfielder ranks fifth in MLB in hard-hit rate, and all six of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching. Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios is giving up the third-highest hard-hit rate among qualified pitchers, so Marsh has a great chance to barrel one up on Tuesday night.
Ty France has only hit two home runs in 113 at-bats this season, but his advanced stats suggest he's been a bit unlucky in the power department. The Seattle Mariners first baseman is slugging .345 with an expected slugging percentage of .451. That difference of 0.106 is the ninth-largest mark in MLB this year. This is a great spot for France to get a hold of one, as Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober is allowing the fifth-highest barrel rate in the league among qualified pitchers, and the wind at Target Field will be blowing strongly out to left field.
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