NASCAR at Darlington odds, predictions: Advanced model makes surprising 2024 Goodyear 400 picks, leaderboard

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season continues on Sunday with the 2024 Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. Darlington is one of NASCAR's oldest and most challenging tracks on the circuit and the "The Track Too Tough to Tame" has produced plenty of drama over the years. William Byron enters the 2024 Goodyear 400 as the defending champion, but he's finished 23rd or worse in his last two starts on the NASCAR Cup Series. The green flag is scheduled to drop on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. According to the latest 2024 Goodyear 400 odds, Kyle Larson is going off as the +425 favorite (bet $100 to win $425).

Larson is followed by Denny Hamlin (+450) and Martin Truex Jr. (+650) in the 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Darlington predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Goodyear 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Goodyear 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Darlington leaderboard .

Top 2024 Goodyear 400 predictions

For the 2024 Goodyear 400, the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a +1600 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Elliott has already racked up one win and six top-10 finishes this season. He's also been consistent at Darlington Raceway in recent years, securing a top-10 finish in four of his last six starts.

Elliott will enter the 2024 Goodyear 400 full of confidence after finishing in the top five in five of his last six starts on the NASCAR Cup Series. That success is a big reason why the model expects Elliott to be in the mix on Sunday.

Another massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., who is second in the standings and listed as one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Darlington NASCAR starting lineup. The 44-year-old hasn't been able to make his way to victory lane over the first 12 races of the season. He's failed to lead a lap in three of his last five races after leading at least one lap in six consecutive races after Daytona.

Truex is a two-time winner at Darlington, but only has four top-five finishes in 23 career starts on the egg-shaped oval and has had tough luck there since the switch to the Next-Gen Car. Truex has finished 18th or worse in all four of his starts at Darlington since 2022, with mechanical failures sending him to the back of the pack in three of those races despite the fact that he led at least 28 laps in each. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Darlington picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds longer than +1500 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .

So who wins the 2024 Goodyear 400, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Darlington leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year .

2024 Goodyear 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Darlington picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson +425
Denny Hamlin +450
Martin Truex Jr. +650
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Christopher Bell +900
Ross Chastain +1500
Brad Keselowski +1600
Chase Elliott +1600
Kyle Busch +1600
Chris Buescher +2000
Ty Gibbs +2200
Joey Logano +2500
Ryan Blaney +2800
Bubba Wallace +3000
Alex Bowman +3500
Erik Jones +4000
Noah Gragson +5000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Daniel Suarez +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Michael McDowell +25000
Austin Dillon +30000
Carson Hocevar +30000
Austin Cindric +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Ryan Preece +50000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Corey Lajoie +75000
Justin Haley +100000
Harrison Burton +100000
Zane Smith +100000
Daniel Hemric +150000
Derek Kraus +500000
Kaz Grala +500000