Three reasons it's still too early to call the AL East a two-team race, even as Yankees, Orioles surge ahead

Six weeks into the 2024 season, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have distanced themselves a bit from the rest of the AL East. The O's and Yankees are separated by one game in the standings, or, really, two-half games, since they have the same number of wins but the Yankees have played two more games.

Here are the AL East standings as of Tuesday morning:

1. Baltimore Orioles: 23-11
2. New York Yankees: 23-13 (1 GB)
3. Boston Red Sox : 19-16 (4.5 GB)
4. Tampa Bay Rays : 18-18 (6 GB)
5. Toronto Blue Jays : 16-19 (7.5 GB)

The Orioles sitting atop the AL East is not a surprise. They won 101 games and the division last year, added Corbin Burnes , and their young position players have another year of experience under their belt. If the O's had started slow this season, it would have been a surprise, though not necessarily a reason to panic. Instead, they're doing exactly what they were expected to do.

The Yankees went 82-80 a year ago, their worst record in three decades. They then added Juan Soto over the winter, and also Marcus Stroman and Alex Verdugo . If anything, we've yet to see the fully operational version of the Yankees because Aaron Judge is just now hitting his stride at the plate, and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole has yet to pitch because of an elbow injury.

As for the rest of the AL East, the Red Sox have surprised everyone with their elite run prevention, though it has mostly been tough sledding for the Blue Jays and Rays. The Orioles and Yankees look like the cream of the crop in the AL East (in that order), but the remaining three clubs should not be discounted. Here's why it's still too early to call the AL East a two-team race.

1. The Red Sox are better than expected

Unlike the Blue Jays and Rays, Boston's plus-41 run differential is very good and essentially identical to the Yankees' (plus-42), and one or two blowout wins away from Baltimore's (plus-55). The Red Sox have a 2.61 ERA, the best in baseball, and that comes only a year after finishing 21st with a 4.79 ERA. New pitching coach Andrew Bailey has revamped the team's pitching approach .

That league-leading 2.61 ERA is a bit deceptive because unearned runs count, and the Red Sox lead baseball with 30 unearned runs allowed, seven more (30% more!) than any other team. Their defense, particularly on the infield in the wake of Trevor Story's injury, is weak. That said, the Red Sox are still excellent when you look at total runs allowed per game:

1. Seattle Mariners : 3.26
2. Kansas City Royals : 3.31
3. New York Yankees: 3.44
4. Boston Red Sox: 3.46
5. Cleveland Guardians : 3.60
6. Baltimore Orioles: 3.68

Therein lies the kicker: Baltimore and the Yankees are elite run-prevention teams as well, and their offenses are more fearsome, particularly with Story and Triston Casas out with long-term injuries. That said, the Red Sox are averaging a healthy 5.00 runs per game since Casas got hurt, so the offense is not a total pushover. Rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu has been sneaky great.

Nick Pivetta is expected to return this week and Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock aren't too far away either, so the rotation is close to whole. Bottom line, when you prevent runs as well as the Red Sox, you have a chance to win just about every night. This team has had a knack for out-of-nowhere great seasons. All it takes is one good three- or four-week run to make the Orioles and Yankees sweat.

2. Tampa's top hitters are starting to get on track

It's hard to believe it is May 7 and Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz are hitting a combined .193/.292/.293 in 301 plate appearances. A year ago, those two slashed .291/.386/.472 together, with Díaz winning the AL batting title. This year, they are among the least productive everyday players in the majors. It's shocking, really.

There are indications those two are coming out of their early season slumps, however. This past weekend, Díaz had three straight multi-hit games in a sweep of the New York Mets , and Arozarena went deep twice in the series. That including a two-out, two-strike, game-tying blast against Edwin Díaz in the ninth inning Sunday. Arozarena then reached base three times Monday.

Isaac Paredes is humming along with his "pull everything for a home run" approach, new additions Richie Palacios and Ben Rortvedt have been pleasant surprises, Josh Lowe just came off the injured list, and Brandon Lowe (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment soon. Get Arozarena and Díaz fully back on track, and the Rays will be cooking offensively.

The pitching, however, is a much larger issue. Tampa is allowing 5.09 runs per game, fifth most in baseball, and other than Taj Bradley and Shane Baz , who just began a rehab assignment, there's not much help on the horizon. Shane McClanahan will miss the season with Tommy John surgery and Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs aren't due back from their elbow procedures until the second half.

History says the Rays will lose more pitchers to injury -- the Rays are excellent at a great many things, but keeping pitchers healthy is not one of them -- and history also says the Rays will figure it out. At this time last year the bullpen was a major concern and you would have gotten laughed at for suggesting Zack Littell could be a No. 3 type starter. Then the Rays did what the Rays do.

Tampa has earned the benefit of the doubt and shouldn't be written off not even a month and a half into the season. Arozarena and Díaz are showing signs of life and the front office has shown that, given time, they'll cobble together a top pitching staff. They have their work cut out for them, no doubt, but the first step (Arozarena and Díaz starting to hit) appears to be underway.

3. It's May 7, stupid

Yes, I am aware of that. Roughly 20% of the regular season has been played and that leaves, oh, another 130-something games on the schedule. Last May 7, the Red Sox, Minnesota Twins , Pittsburgh Pirates , and San Diego Padres were all in postseason position. Things didn't go well for them the rest of the way. The Houston Astros were .500 and it appeared their AL West rein was ending.

I will say that, unlike the Rays and Red Sox, the Blue Jays look to be in real trouble. They're among the 10 worst teams in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game, they're mostly healthy, and they don't have much help waiting in Triple-A. If there is one AL East team that should be worried (like really, really worried), it's Toronto.

That all said, it is only May 7, and these AL East teams have shown themselves to be too good and too resourceful to write them off with so much season still to play. The Orioles and Yankees have started the season very well, the others not so much, but there is plenty of time remaining to change the narrative and change the standings.