Chesapeake Bay watershed not likely to meet some pollution reduction goals by 2025

Virginia did not reach its 2023 pollution reduction targets for nitrogen and phosphorus, according to modeling tools from the Chesapeake Bay Program, but the state is on track for reducing sediment in the bay.

Too much nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment in the Chesapeake Bay contribute to poor quality of the water. Nitrogen and phosphorus fuel the growth of algae blooms, and sediment can block sunlight from reaching underwater grasses, suffocating shellfish. Between 2022 and 2023, pollution loads for nitrogen fell 3.3%, phosphorus fell 4.5% and overall sediment levels decreased by 1% across six states and DC. Those seven entities are part of the Chesapeake Clean Water Blueprint.

The Chesapeake Bay Program measures pollution reduction between 2009 (the baseline year) and 2023. States across the Chesapeake Bay region have a collective goal of reducing pollution in the bay significantly by 2025 using a “pollution diet,” or the total maximum daily load. Virginia has achieved 80% of its 2025 reduction goal for nitrogen, 62% of its reduction goal for phosphorus and 100% of its reduction goal for sediment.

Across the bay region, the maximum load sets watershed limits of 185.9 million pounds of nitrogen, 12.5 million pounds of phosphorus and 6.45 billion pounds of sediment per year. This equates to a 25% reduction in nitrogen, 24% reduction in phosphorus and 20% reduction in sediment compared to 2009.

Despite “significant gains” in restoration, the watershed likely will not reach its goals for nitrogen or phosphorus by 2025, said Alison Prost, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation’s vice president for environmental protection and restoration.

“These most recent model results are encouraging, but on-the-ground outcomes don’t match up and the latest science tells us we can better optimize our efforts,” Prost said. “Climate change is also making reducing pollution harder. The next phase of bay cleanup will require bold thinking grounded in sound science and built on a foundation of accountability.”

The program cites the agricultural sector as responsible for more than 40% of nitrogen reductions and a quarter of phosphorus reductions during 2022 and 2023. The wastewater sector, during the same period, was responsible for about half of nitrogen reductions and two-thirds of phosphorus reductions.

Suzanne Trevena, chair of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s water quality goal implementation team, said in a statement that partners in the program will continue to implement strategies to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus.

“The sediment target has been met across the watershed, and we recognize that opportunities remain to reduce nutrients to meet our 2025 water quality goal,” Trevana said. “We strive to build upon our current successes, focus our efforts on what works well, prioritize innovation and explore additional actions that will help us meet and sustain our water quality goals.”

Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com