Active Pattern Setting Up For The West This Weekend: California Favored, But Everyone Gets Snow

An active pattern is setting up for this weekend and should persist throughout next week.

In the short term, a mild clipper system will bring some snow to parts of Idaho and Montana until the weekend. Below you can see the ECMWF and GFS snowfall projections by Saturday morning. Widespread 1-4" totals with 6-12" totals in the northern Rockies near the Canadian border. The GFS is a little more bullish on these totals, but ensembles are more aligned with the European outlook on the lower side. However, these are assuming 10:1 snow ratios; in reality, dropping temperatures throughout the week should squeeze out a bit more snow. When it's all said and done, final totals will likely be somewhere in between the two projections below.

Looking ahead, a major system makes landfall in California on Friday night/Saturday morning. The most intense precipitation from this system will be concentrated in the Sierra, but Oregon and Washington will still see solid precipitation totals from it (as well as the rest of the intermountain west as the moisture ejects inland to the northeast).

For the Sierra, the best day of skiing will be on Saturday following a big dump on Friday night. We're looking at 8-15" overnight for resorts along the Sierra Crest (e.g. Palisades Tahoe, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood), 3-6" for resorts in the eastern Tahoe basin (Mt. Rose, Heavenly), and 5-10" overnight at Mammoth. Here's projected totals from our "best guess" national blended model by first chair on Saturday:

Snowfall will continue on Saturday. Another 2-6" during the day on Saturday is likely for most Sierra resorts. Precip lingers in the region through Sunday night. When it's all said and done, storm totals will range from as much as 20" for high-elevation Sierra Crest resorts to as low as 6" for eastern Tahoe resorts. Wind shouldn't be much of a concern for California with this storm, so upper elevation lifts will likely be able to run, making high-elevation Sierra Crest resorts like Palisades, Sugar Bowl, and Kirkwood, the best targets for a chase during this storm.

Let's look at the rest of the West for storm totals from this system. In the ECMWF snowfall forecast by Monday morning, you can see how remarkably well spread out the snowfall from this storm will be:

Basically all of the West will see snow. California is obviously the bullseye, but decent totals between 2-10" are likely for Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, and Arizona. At the moment, nowhere other than California is looking especially chase-worthy this weekend, but good turns will be found everywhere.

Looking ahead, our next storm is poised to make landfall on the west coast on Sunday night or Monday morning. Unlike the last storm, which hit California first, models agree that this storm will sweep further north through the Pacific Northwest. Details remain uncertain, so forecasting specific totals is pointless this far out. However, this pattern brings ample moisture, cold temperatures, and good northwest flow that typically favors the Wasatch, Tetons, and northern Colorado. Look for potential chase targets in these regions on Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Stay tuned for more Powderchasers forecasts this week and weekend as specifics about totals come into focus!

Follow Powderchasers on Instagram and Facebook for exclusive chase content and frequent forecasts!