This is what’s holding up the Jets-Packers Aaron Rodgers trade

It has been five weeks since Aaron Rodgers declared his desire to play for the Jets on “The Pat McAfee Show.”

Five weeks later … we’re still waiting.

The standoff between the Jets and Packers over a Rodgers trade continues. Is there an end in sight? Since that March 15 interview when it became clear that Rodgers wanted to come to the Jets, the question has been when the two teams could work out a deal. The biggest issue was there was no deadline to spur action. There was no date in the near future when a bonus was due. The two teams were not even close to practicing. Both sides could sit back and posture with no pressure points on the horizon.

That first pressure point is now arriving, though, in the form of the NFL Draft, which begins Thursday. The feeling all along has been the draft may be what pushes the two sides to make a deal . We’ll soon find out.

The sticking point in the negotiations remains the Packers’ demand for the Jets’ 2024 first-round pick to be included. As the Packers see it, Rodgers is a four-time MVP who the Jets clearly feel will make their team a contender.

The Jets do not want to send them an unconditional first-round pick for a player who will turn 40 this season and may not play for the Jets in 2024. The Jets’ preference is to send them a conditional pick next year — a second-day pick that can become a first-round choice if certain conditions are met. It is unknown what the conditions the Jets are putting forth are but an example would be if the Jets go to the AFC Championship game, the pick becomes a first-rounder, or if Rodgers wins an MVP, it goes to a 1.

If either side concedes on the 2024 draft pick, this deal can happen quickly.

That brings us back to the 2023 draft.

While the two sides are not discussing a first-round pick this year, they are talking about one of the Jets’ two second-round picks going to the Packers. Those picks will come next Friday night. The second round begins at 7 p.m. That is the soft deadline now for a Rodgers deal to get done.

If the Packers want to come away from this trade with anything to show for it in 2023, they need this trade to happen by the time the Jets are on the clock with the 42nd and 43rd picks in the draft. If the deal is not done by then, things change drastically and the value of what the Packers can get in return for Rodgers drops. We are now looking at the 2024 and 2025 drafts and those are much harder to define and the Jets are going to be much more reluctant to deal premium picks in years where they don’t even know who their quarterback will be.

I still believe this deal has to get done for both sides. The Packers can’t go back to Rodgers. They have made the full pivot to Jordan Love both privately and publicly. The Jets have no Plan B. At some point, GMs Joe Douglas and Brian Gutekunst have to find a compromise and make it work.

As for the idea that another team can swoop in and grab Rodgers, that seems far-fetched. Rodgers is clearly invested in the Jets and wants to come here. Calais Campbell revealed on “The Crew” podcast with reporter Josina Anderson that Rodgers texted him about joining the Jets , “Yo man, let’s go win a championship together.” Campbell chose the Falcons, but it shows that Rodgers is trying to make moves for the Jets.

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Douglas and Gutekunst have been engaged in posturing for weeks now and there have not been many discussions since the league meetings last month. That should change in the coming days and the two GMs need to figure out how to make this work. It is in both of their interest to get this deal done so their two franchises can move on with their plans for the 2023 season.

Rodgers once referred to his future as a “beautiful mystery.” For the Jets and the Packers, the time has arrived to provide some clarity in that mystery.