ANALYSIS: Top programs don’t rely heavily on the portal, and Miami Hurricanes may be on cusp of getting to that point as well

In Miami coach Mario Cristobal ’s first full transfer portal cycle he gobbled up 11 players, then last year took 15 more. The double-digit trend continued this year, with the team grabbing eight transfers in the first window and then taking five more so far in the recent second portal window.

On the surface the portal can be a great tool to make your roster better. The idea is recruit top talent, and while it develops supplement the team and fill roster holes now through the portal.

A problem with that?

Well, portal guys tend to be one- or two-year fixes. And each portal addition is taking the spot of what otherwise could be a recruit that helps a program for 3-5 years. Take enough and it becomes a self-sustaining need – if there are 10 portal additions on your roster every year that are all taken as juniors, for the sake of argument, that’s almost one-quarter of your roster filled by transfers (20 of the 85 limit). And when they wind up leaving because your roster is relying on them … well, you need to bring in more transfers once more to replace them since the typical “hit” rate on recruits means there likely will be a lot of roster needs each year. There’s the additional factor of young talent leaving when they want to play and see the team constantly bringing in older guys to start over them … although so far Cristobal has done a great job of using a lot of freshmen, including five that started games last year (QB Emory Williams, RB Mark Fletcher, OL Francis Mauigoa CB Damari Brown and DE Rueben Bain).

There’s a reason most of the programs that are perennially competing for championships don’t rely heavily on the portal over periods of time, with Florida State an exception.

Here’s how many transfers the top five programs from 2023 averaged over the last three years:

* Michigan: 4.7 transfers per year

* Washington: 10.7

* Texas: 6.7

* Georgia: 4.3

* Alabama: 6.0

As it pertains to the ACC, the general top program Clemson has taken a grand total of two transfers since 2021 while compiling a 30-10 record in that span.

FSU by comparison HAS taken double-digit transfers every single year since 2021, showing you can win through the portal. But it takes landing a lot of “free agents,” and whether that is sustainable remains a big question since you see the Seminoles’ need to keep replenishing the roster through the portal. It’s a vicious cycle of sorts with constantly needing to replace veteran talent with veteran talent in order to win each season, and the roster churn is remarkable with FSU having 18 departures and bringing in 15 new transfers just in the first portal window this year.

Which brings us back to Miami.

Will Cristobal need to continue to take double-digit transfers into the future?

An issue is the classes remain unbalanced at Miami with 64 percent of the roster filled with freshmen and sophomores. As you project ahead to 2025 you could see Miami needing to chase a portal QB to replace the one-year fix of Ward, depending on how Reese Poffenbarger and Emory Williams look. The same at running back where there is questionable depth. Receiver is a spot where there are balanced classes and talent, and the same situation exists at tight end and along the offensive line. So if guys are developed … well, perhaps just a couple of guys will be needed on offense next year.

On defense? The line is relying heavily leaning on first- and second-year guys, 12 of them as a matter of fact (vs. six combined juniors and seniors). So we would not be surprised if Cristobal attacks that area heavily in the portal for 2025, a continuation of having five senior transfer defensive linemen on the current roster even after another transfer, Thomas Gore, recently left. On paper the linebacker and secondary have classes that are balanced well with multiple players in each class. So then it just becomes a matter of whether the coaches feel okay with the general talent level at those spots. With the level of recruitment and development you have to hope comes with this coaching staff, there should not be many needs in the portal at either spot.

So perhaps we are seeing the end of the transfer portal rainbow at Miami. That’s with the caveat that these coaches need to have recruited the right guys and then develop them. If not, then this transfer portal mayhem and roster churn will continue year after year. And if you want to use the Alabama’s and Georgia’s as your example, that’s probably not a good thing.

The formula of those programs: Recruit top talent, develop that talent, then they leave as high picks in the NFL Draft, and then it’s a next-man-up deal. If there is a miss at a position, that is when you hit the portal, but it should be few-and-far-between.

Based on all the above, perhaps when we see Miami down to averaging just a handful of portal takes per year, that’s when we will know the Canes are truly “back.” Because it will mean the roster talent is as good or better than anything you can grab on the second-hand/free agent market.

And that’s when you start rolling with teams year after year that are good enough to compete with anyone in the nation.

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