Primary voter turnout lower than 2020
Fewer overall area voters marked their ballots for the 2024 primary race last Tuesday, March 5 in what has been a markedly uncompetitive race for both Democrats and Republicans, as incumbent President Joe Biden seeks re-election, and former President Donald Trump has blown out his competition in the primary races so far as he seeks to win back the presidency after his loss in 2020 to Biden.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Trump were the only two candidates still in the race when Minnesota’s primary held on Super Tuesday came around.
The former president clinched 4,080 votes in our coverage area of Forest Lake, Scandia, Wyoming, Columbus, and Linwood township. Trump drew about 75% of Republican primary voters, compared to Nikki Haley’s 21.51% in the combined coverage area. A total of 908 voters cast their ballot for the former president in Forest Lake, while Scandia offered 244, Wyoming with 479, Columbus with 271, and Linwood with 420. Haley, who suspended her campaign after Super Tuesday’s race, garnered the next highest with 654 total votes from the five cities: 285 from Forest Lake, 93 from Scandia, Wyoming with 122, Columbus with 74, and Linwood with 80. In total, 3,041 people cast their ballots in the Republican primary across the five cities: 1,223 in Forest Lake; 343 in Scandia, 619 in Wyoming; 347 in Columbus, and 509 in Linwood.
Across Minnesota, 68.94% of voters punched their ballot for Trump as the Republican nominee, with Nikki Haley taking 28.77% of the vote.
But just because Haley and Trump were the only two still actively in the race didn’t mean the ballot didn’t offer other options for Republican voters.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis garnered 38 total votes: 17 from Forest Lake, and 14 from Wyoming. Vivek Ramaswamy, a pharmaceutical entrepreneur who had never held office prior to his presidential bid and – despite running against Trump in the primaries – voiced his support for the former president while campaigning, claimed 15 area votes, seven of which came from Forest Lake voters.
Chris Christie, whose campaign was a stark contrast and pushback against the direction of the party under Trump, clinched a total of six votes – the same amount of write-in ballots – in the combined five cities, three of which (for both Christie and write-ins) came from Forest Lake residents.
Minnesotans chose DeSantis next with 1.21%, while Ramaswamy and Christie nearly tied at 1,470 (.44%) and 1,431 votes (.42%), respectively.
Ironically, the Democratic primary ticket held a total of nine competitors, in addition to a new “uncommitted” option, offering voters a total of 11 choices with the write-in option. In 2020, President Trump, who was then the incumbent, was the only candidate on the ticket.
1,025 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary across the five municipalities, with 492 coming from Forest Lake; 179 from Scandia, 195 from Wyoming, 119 from Columbus, and 40 coming from Linwood. President Joe Biden was an obvious standout, garnering 800 total votes, or 78% across the five cities. 379 Forest Lake residents cast their ballots for the current president, while Scandia added 145, Wyoming added 155, Columbus added 91, and Linwood added 30.
Notably, nearly 10% of voters checked “uncommitted,” far more than the fraction of a percentage voters marked in 2020, signifying a protest vote in the Democratic party. Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips, a Democrat representing Minnesota’s third district and began a late-start campaign to run as an alternative to Joe Biden, won 87 votes from area residents, 43 of which came from Forest Lake.
70.12% of Minnesotans cast ballots for the current President, while 18.8% voted “uncommitted”; Phillips clinched 18,959 total votes for just 7.76% of Minnesotans’ votes.
New this year, the Legalize Marijuana party had its own primary ballot, which received a total of 14 votes across the five municipalities. Krystal Gabel garnered 8 total votes from area cities, with four of those votes coming from Columbus voters; she also won the party’s nomination in Minnesota with 28.84% of the vote with just 759 votes total.
Despite more candidates on both Republican and Democratic ballots, voter turnout in the 2024 presidential primary race in the five cities was lower than 2020’s presidential primary. However, Trump, then the incumbent, was the only Republican on the ballot in 2020 as the competitive Democratic field was still being narrowed. In addition, this year’s nominees seemed well-poised to clinch their parties’ respective nominations before Super Tuesday commenced, with Biden as the incumbent in his party, and Trump the clear Republican favorite for months leading up to the primary season.
There were 650 fewer total votes in the 2024 presidential primary than in 2020, with 4,730 casting a ballot in 2020’s primary, compared to this year’s 4,080. Forest Lake saw a 26% decrease in voters from 2020’s 2,165, with this year at 1,718, the largest percentage drop in area cities. Scandia’s interest in voting dropped from 620 voters to 523 this year; Wyoming dropped from 895 to this year’s 816; Columbus decreased voters from 496 to 472 this year; while Linwood stayed nearly the same at 551 after 2020’s 554.
That’s on trend for Minnesotans as a whole; 884,753 voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential primary, while only 584,646 voted in this year’s primary, even as a new party was added to the ballot.
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