March Madness 2024: Best Bet for Thursday’s Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

For the third time in four seasons and for the first time ever in the men’s NCAA Tournament, the Alabama Crimson Tide are set to play the North Carolina Tar Heels. On the line Thursday night is a trip to the Elite Eight in the West Region, where the winner of No. 6 Clemson and No. 2 Arizona awaits.

The No. 1 Tar Heels are favored against the No. 4 Crimson Tide in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game of the Sweet 16.

(Odds via FanDuel.)

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels

Game Info: 9:39 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Alabama +3.5 (-102) | North Carolina -3.5 (-120)
Moneyline: ALA (+150) | UNC (-182)
Total: 173.5 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)

The Crimson Tide are back in the Sweet 16, where their tournament runs have come to an end two of the last three seasons. Alabama (23–11) edged out No. 12 Grand Canyon, 72–61, in the Round of 32 after a 109–96 win over No. 13 Charleston in the Round of 64. Next up is a tough Tar Heels team that has designs on advancing to the Final Four in Phoenix. North Carolina (29–7) handled No. 9 Michigan State, 85–69, to advance to the second weekend following a 90–62 blowout against No. 16 Wagner.

Nate Oats’s team has the lowest-rated adjusted defense of any team still alive in the tournament, per KenPom. The Crimson Tide have given up 90 or more points five times in their last 10 games and they allowed 100-plus three times during that stretch. R.J. Davis and the Tar Heels, a top-20 scoring offense, will be able to take advantage of their deficiencies on that side of the ball. But at the same time, no team in the country scores more than ’Bama. Led by Mark Sears (21.5 ppg), the Tide are good for 90.7 points per game and have cracked triple digits four times in their last 11 outings.

Alabama makes 11 threes per game and shoots a 36.5% clip as a team. Against Charleston, the team shot 13–23 from beyond the arc and 60% from the field but just 8–31 from deep in the Grand Canyon game and 37% from the floor. Uncharacteristically, free throw shooting has also been an issue for a team that shoots 78.5% on the year. The Tide are 40–59 (68%) in two tournament games. Sears led the team in scoring in Round 1 with 30 and he had 26 in the next game.

UNC is a much more balanced team than its opponent with top-20 marks in adjusted offense and defense. Davis, a finalist for National Player of the Year, led all scorers with 22 against Wagner and had a team-high 20 the next game against Michigan State. His running mate Armando Bacot posted a dominant, 20-point, 15-rebound double-double in Round 1 and had 18 points his next time out.

The Tar Heels’ offense stalled a bit in the ACC Tournament against Pittsburgh and N.C. State but it returned to form against a tough Spartans defense, an encouraging development ahead of a plus matchup with ’Bama. The onus will be on North Carolina to continue to defend the arc well and clean up the glass in the Sweet 16 against the Tide.

On the season, the Tar Heels (21–15) have a respectable record against the spread and Alabama (19–15) isn’t far behind. However, as a favorite, UNC is 19–14 against the spread while the Crimson Tide are just 2–6 as an underdog. Alabama has lost its last four games as an underdog by at least 18 points — no spread was higher than 5.5 points. Look for that trend to continue Thursday night in Los Angeles. Take the Tar Heels to cover this modest line and advance to the Elite Eight for a potential revenge game against Caleb Love and Arizona.

Bet: North Carolina -3.5 (-120)

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