How many 100° days will Austin get this year? Here’s what the First Warning Weather team predicts

AUSTIN (KXAN) — If you’re not a fan of triple-digit heat, you’re probably hoping this year won’t be a repeat of 2023. Camp Mabry, Austin’s official weather reporting site, recorded 80 days at or above 100° last year, second only to 2011, when 90 days of triple-digit heat were recorded.

Each year, we ask the KXAN First Warning Weather team to predict how many times Austin will hit the century mark.

Of course, making predictions so early in the year is not scientifically accurate. As our meteorologists will tell you, accurately forecasting out more than seven days ahead is incredibly difficult. Last year, the team predicted anywhere from 33 to 44 days of triple-digit heat, but Austin ended up with 80.

This year, the team is predicting a well-above-average year when it comes to 100° days. Austin averages 29 days at or above 100° in a typical year. Here’s what the team is predicting for 2024:

Rich Segal: 76 days

“My prediction of 76 may even be too low. We were taught a lesson in 2023 with our low-balling the number triple-digit days. With the forecast of transiting back to an El Niño it just makes sense to me that we will have more triple-digit days than the average. My guess is not based on anything other than how our climate continues to warm.” – Rich Segal

Kristen Currie: 68 days

“The Magic 8 ball and dartboard we keep in the Weather Center both cracked when I asked, so sticking with my gut on this one.” – Kristen Currie

Nick Bannin: 60 days

“I’m going with 60. I think it’ll be hotter than normal, but our — so far — wetter soils this year may help us knock down the number a little bit. That combined with a more active hurricane season may mean we end up with more tropical activity in the Gulf and therefore more clouds/leftovers here.” – Nick Bannin

Jim Spencer: 55 days

“Without looking at a thing, I would have already predicted a hotter-than-average summer with more 100° days than normal. That’s simply because the impact of climate change is so in-your-face obvious now it has resulted in hotter-than-average summers for 13 of the past 14 summers. I’d be a fool NOT to forecast hotter -than-average weather. But, scientifically, there is also reasoning behind it. For example, the Climate Prediction Center explains every seasonal outlook they issue, and the tools used to derive those predictions. As has been the case for as many summers as I can remember, they are also projecting hotter-than-normal weather across Texas this summer.” – Jim Spencer

Here are some 100° facts for Austin :

• 2011 had the most triple-digit days in recorded history, with 90
• 12 years have failed to reach 100° since records began, most recently in 1987
• The hottest temperature ever recorded was 112°, on Sept. 5, 2000 and Aug. 28, 2011
• The earliest 100° day on record was May 4, 1984
• The latest 100° day on record was Oct. 2, in both 1923 and 1938
• The average first and last 100° days are July 4 and Aug. 30
• Aug. 10 has hit 100° more than any other calendar date

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