Severe storm potential returns to the Big Country in 1st full week of May

ABILENE, Texas ( BCH Weather ) – It seems that we can’t get away from the potential for severe weather here in the Big Country. Over the past five days, we have had severe weather everyday except for Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has included Abilene and a good portion of the Big Country in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather Monday afternoon. Parts of Knox and Throckmorton counties are included at a slight risk (level 2/5).

The threat is conditional depending on the cap in the atmosphere. While the chance for storms to develop is low, if a storm can develop it will have the potential to reach severe levels with large hail and damaging winds possible.

Ahead of a dryline, an unstable air mass will prevail with CAPE values well above 3000 J/KG. However, mid-level temperatures have warmed and are acting as a cap, and most if not, all CAMs are indicating that this cap will prevent convection across most of the area.

Many of the CAM models are also hinting at a mid-level cumulus cloud field developing across the eastern big Country south into the Heartland, which is an indication the models are at least trying to break through the cap.

If the cap is able to hold together then we will not see much of any storm development across the area, and it will be a warm day with partly sunny to mostly sunny skies.

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