Why expectations for Mississippi State football coach Jeff Lebby's first season should be modest

STARKVILLE — Jeff Lebby emerged from the tunnel at Davis Wade Stadium sporting a maroon rope hat atop his head while donning a shirt reading “ Showtime at State .” As he joined the Mississippi State football team running onto the field for the April 20 spring game , he carried with him the start of a new era in Starkville.

That feeling has become a common occurrence for the Bulldogs. Lebby is the fourth head coach at Mississippi State since 2018.

Since Dan Mullen’s nine-year tenure ended in 2017 with his departure for Florida, MSU has struggled to find consistency at the helm. Joe Moorhead was hired as Mullen’s replacement but lasted only two seasons. Mike Leach followed and gave the Bulldogs a sense of stability, but his unexpected death in 2022 led to the promotion of Zach Arnett , who was fired 10 games into his first full season.

Now, it’s Lebby’s turn. As he enters his first season as a head coach after various stints as an offensive coordinator, what are fair expectations for Lebby?

The answer is complicated.

Expectations could be low for Lebby, and the preseason polls likely will reflect that. Since MSU became part of the SEC in 1933, only seven of its 19 coaches have had a winning record in their first year. Coming off a losing season which saw a plethora of players exhausting eligibility or leaving for the transfer portal, it’s reasonable to believe Lebby’s first campaign could be a struggle.

Then there’s the flipside.

Lebby is coaching in an era unlike any other in the sport’s history. Mississippi State saw key players such as quarterback Will Rogers transfer out, but no first-year coach in Starkville has been able to utilize the portal to this degree to address holes.

About two weeks after State ended its season with an Egg Bowl loss, Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen committed to the Bulldogs. Lebby had a veteran starter already locked up to replace Rogers.

Lebby can view his tenure as a retool rather than a rebuild. That could raise expectations.

“I know what the expectations are going to be for myself and the players in the locker room, and that's to be as good as we can possibly be as fast as we can possibly be,” Lebby said at his introductory news conference.

Here’s a look at how Mississippi State’s previous head coaches have fared in their first seasons:

Zach Arnett

• Record in first season: 4-6
• Tenure: 2022-2023

Mike Leach

• Record in first season: 4-7
• Tenure: 2020-2022

Joe Moorhead

• Record in first season: 8-5
• Tenure: 2018-2019

Dan Mullen

• Record in first season: 5-7
• Tenure: 2009-2017

Sylvester Croom

• Record in first season: 3-8
• Tenure: 2004-2008

Jackie Sherrill

• Record in first season: 7-5
• Tenure: 1991-2003

Rockey Felker

• Record in first season: 6-5
• Tenure: 1986-1990

Emory Bellard

• Record in first season: 3-8
• Tenure: 1979-1985

Bob Tyler

• Record in first season: 4-5-2
• Tenure: 1973-1978

Charley Shira

• Record in first season: 1-9
• Tenure: 1967-1972

Paul Davis

• Record in first season: 3-6
• Tenure: 1962-1966

Wade Walker

• Record in first season: 4-6
• Tenure: 1956-1961

Darrell Royal

• Record in first season: 6-4
• Tenure: 1954-1955

Murray Warmath

• Record in first season: 5-4
• Tenure: 1952-1953

Slick Morton

• Record in first season: 0-8-1
• Tenure: 1949-1951

Allyn McKeen

• Record in first season: 8-2
• Tenure: 1939-1948

Spike Nelson

• Record in first season: 4-6
• Tenure: 1938

Ralph Sasse

• Record in first season: 8-3
• Tenure: 1935-1937

Ross McKechnie

• Record in first season: 3-6-1
• Tenure: 1933-1934

Ray Dauber

• Record in first season: 2-6
• Tenure: 1931-1932

Chris Cagle

• Record in first season: 2-7
• Tenure: 1930

J.W. Hancock

• Record in first season: 5-3
• Tenure: 1927-1929

Bernie Bierman

• Record in first season: 3-4-1
• Tenure: 1925-1926

Earl Able

• Record in first season: 5-2-2
• Tenure: 1923-1924

C.R. “Dudy” Noble

• Record in first season: 3-4-2
• Tenure: 1922

Fred Holtkamp

• Record in first season: 5-3
• Tenure: 1920-1921

Sid Robinson

• Record in first season: 6-1
• Tenure: 1917-1919

E.C. Hayes

• Record in first season: 6-2
• Tenure: 1914-1916

NEW NAME: Trent Hudson transferring from New Mexico State to Mississippi State football

W.D. Chadwick

• Record in first season: 5-4
• Tenure: 1909-1913

Fred Furman

• Record in first season: 6-3
• Tenure: 1907-1908

Dan Martin

• Record in first season: 3-0-2
• Tenure: 1903-1906

L. Gwinn

• Record in first season: 1-4-1
• Tenure: 1902

L.B Harvey

• Record in first season: 2-2-1
• Tenure: 1901

J.B. Hildebrand

• Record in first season: 0-4
• Tenure: 1896

W.M. Matthews

• Record in first season: 0-2
• Tenure: 1895

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3 .

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Why expectations for Mississippi State football coach Jeff Lebby's first season should be modest