Sizzling summer heat expected for RI. Here's how June, July and August are shaping up

Most of the country, including Southern New England, can expect a hotter-than-normal summer, according to AccuWeather and the National Weather Service.

AccuWeather's summer forecast suggests temperatures in Southern New England will run 2 to 3 degrees above normal while temperatures across much of the rest of the country will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal, AccuWeather said.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is also forecasting above-normal temperatures for Southern New England. Its May, June and July outlook "favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures" for most of the country, with the Northeast among those areas with "maximum probabilities (greater than 50%) of above-normal temperatures.

Will there be any relief from the heat?

If there's any consolation and comfort for Southern New England, it will come from the nearby ocean, with its cool waters delaying the start of consistent heat, according to Paul Pastelok, lead long-range forecaster for AccuWeather, a commercial forecasting service.

"A lot (of the hot weather) will come mid-to-late summer," Pastelok said in a telephone interview.

While much of the Atlantic has been warmer than normal, the water temperature from New England to Bermuda has been below average, Pastelok said. That's helped keep temperatures cool in April and will likely delay the onset of the consistent heat until early or mid-July, he said.

Ultimately, he expects a strong area of high pressure to set up above the Great Lakes, which would tend to send a westerly flow of warm air down and across New England, he said.

Last year was extremely rainy. Will this summer be any different?

Rainfall, or lack of it, will also play a role in delivering summer heat to Southern New England, according to Pastelok.

"I think we're going to below-average precipitation," Pastelok said. "That's also going to help, by default, to get temperatures above average."

Parts of New England could go into drought due to the lack of rain, he said.

According to National Weather Service records, these are the average summer temperatures from 2000 to 2023 for the Providence area:

• June, 68.1 degrees
• July, 74.6
• August, 73.6.

How is the heat impacting the rest of the country?

Some other parts of the country are already feeling the heat and will feel it more than Southern New England, according to AccuWeather. Baltimore topped 90 degrees on April 29, nearly one month ahead of the historical average, and Phoenix had its earliest 100-degree day in six years, on April 21, AccuWeather said.

"Summer 2024 can feature heat waves for many areas across the Plains to the Northeast. Compared to historical averages, the hottest areas could be over the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and southwest Plains," Pastelok said in an AccuWeather press release.

The heat will contribute to an expected increase in thunderstorms, according to Pastelok.

Meteorologists are also forecasting an active hurricane season.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Sizzling summer heat expected for RI. Here's how June, July and August are shaping up