Sonoma County’s population declines again while Napa’s grows slightly amid statewide growth

Sonoma County saw yet another drop in population last year, part of a demographic shift that has continued since 2016, the year before the devastating North Bay fires destroyed thousands of homes in the region.

The county’s population declined in 2023 by nearly 1,300 people, a 0.3% drop to 478,152, according to new data released Tuesday by the California Department of Finance. The biggest declines, of 1% or more, were in Cloverdale, Cotati, Sebastopol and Sonoma.

Meanwhile, Napa County’s population increased by 521 residents, a 0.4% increase, to 135,029 residents, with the biggest annual increase in American Canyon, at 1.8%, according to state numbers.

No cities or towns in Sonoma County saw an increase in population, and unincorporated Sonoma County saw a decline of 0.4%. Santa Rosa saw its population drop by 0.1%, to 174,890 residents.

Sonoma County’s population, according to state estimates, peaked at 503,405 residents in 2016. Napa County’s population peaked in 2015 at 141,530 people.

Robert Eyler, an economist at Sonoma State University, said the persistent population decline in Sonoma County has been a dominant demographic trend since the just before the 2017 firestorm. The region’s economy and housing market continues to recover from years of wildfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

Sonoma County lost roughly 6,000 homes to wildfires since 2017. Eyler pointed out that the loss of so many single family homes that can accommodate larger families has resulted in a dynamic where any influx of population is smaller in volume.

Napa County lost nearly 1,300 homes combined in the wildfires of 2017 and 2020.

Population growth in Sonoma County has largely been “fading” in the past two decades before dipping significantly after 2017, Eyler said. The construction of traditional single family homes has lagged compared to previous generations, as local housing efforts put a greater focus on multifamily units.

“The housing that you’re building won’t accommodate three or four people at once,” Eyler said. “You’re getting population to move here but it’s a smaller volume than when you’re building single family homes.”

”We’re still below the number of single family homes we had before the (2017) fire but we have overall more housing units,“ he added.

Eyler noted Napa County’s growth is largely being fueled by construction of new homes, particularly in American Canyon “that’s bringing in more people, and even more families.”

The state overall saw an increase in population in 2023, the first since 2020. State officials said the increase is driven by decreased mortality and a rebound in legal foreign immigration.

The state’s population grew last year by just over 67,000 (an annual rate of 0.17%) to 39,128,162, according to the state estimates.

The state data, which includes housing estimates, shows that across the Bay Area, locations with the biggest increases in housing also saw the biggest increases in population.

For example, Emeryville, with an increase in housing of 6.4% between Jan. 1, 2023, and Jan. 1, 2024, saw a population increase of 5%. Oakley in Contra Costa County, which saw a 2.4% increase in housing, experienced a 1.8% increase in population.

Petaluma, Rohnert Park and Santa Rosa each had housing increases of 1.1%. However, Petaluma and Rohnert Park had zero growth in population and Santa Rosa saw a decline of 0.1%.

Ethan Brown, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board, pointed out that later this year the state Department of Finance will release more detailed demographic data broken down by births, deaths and migration.

In the past three years, the number of Sonoma County births has been stable while the number of deaths has been slightly decreasing. Still, more people have been leaving than settling in the county.

He noted that since 2020, the county has experienced a net loss of about 5,000 residents. But that population decrease should slow down in the coming years, he said. Eyler agreed; he said he expects Sonoma County will soon see the same modest growth, tracking the statewide recovery.

Brown said there is a strong correlation between new housing built and population growth, though he resists declaring, “if we build it they will come.”

The continued growth in the North Bay’s older populations will create new economic opportunities for the region, particularly in health care, he said.

But growth in that industry will be require similar growth in a younger workforce. Overcoming the housing crunch is a key factor in that equation, he said.

“If we can’t supply the housing it’s going to be a lot more difficult to meet the needs of folks in that age range and their families,” Brown said.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.