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    NEW POLL: Biden Pulls Even Or Ahead of Trump in Several Swing States

    By Isaac Schorr,


    President Joe Biden is gaining on former President Donald Trump in several key swing states, according to a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

    In previous iterations of the survey measuring voters’ preferences in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump has boasted leads in every single one of the battleground states.

    But according to a March poll, Biden has drawn even with Trump in Michigan (45%-45%) and Pennsylvania (45%-45%) and even pulled ahead of the presumptive Republican nominee in Wisconsin (46%-45%). In February, Bloomberg and Morning Consult had found that Trump was up by six points in Pennsylvania, four in Wisconsin, and two in Michigan.

    Trump did retain leads in all of the other key states. He leads by five in Arizona, seven in Georgia, two in Nevada, and six in North Carolina.

    Assuming that the rest of the state-level results from 2020 replicated themselves in 2024 and applying this data to the relevant states on the Electoral College map, Biden would still prevail in 2024 if he won all three of the states he tied or beat Trump in, but only by the narrowest of margins (270-268).

    If Trump pulled back ahead in any single one of the three states, however, he would retake the White House.

    Trump performed worse in every single state except for Georgia in March as compared to February. In the Peach State, his margin of victory increased by a single point (+6 to +7). But he previously led by six in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, nine in North Carolina, and four in Wisconsin.

    The poll measured the preferences of 4,932 respondents and had margins of error between 3 and 5 points depending on the state.

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