Local Impact of Growing U.S. Demand for Power Grid Transformers by 2050

The U.S. is currently experiencing a significant imbalance in the supply and demand for transformers, a key part of the power grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is working to determine the long-term demand for these devices. Factors such as building and transportation electrification, extreme weather events, and the need to update old electrical infrastructure are driving this demand.

The initial phase of NREL's study has determined the number, capacity, age, and use of the current transformer stock in the nation. The data suggests that the capacity of distribution transformers may need to increase by 160%–260% by 2050 compared to 2021. This is mainly due to old transformers and electrification. The study also looks at potential demand increases from extreme weather events and utility undergrounding and resilience programs.

NREL has noted a growing demand for step-up transformers. These devices convert low-voltage electrical generation into high-voltage electricity for long-distance transmission. They are important for integrating wind and solar farms onto the power grid as they adjust voltages, improve efficiency, and enhance grid reliability.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has asked NREL to develop more analysis capabilities to assess future transformer demand. This will involve examining load growth, new customers, replacement needs, and resilience investments. The DOE intends to share this analysis with stakeholders to help them understand key load metrics and inform distribution planning decisions.

To encourage further action, the DOE will share these insights in an ongoing meeting with power sector stakeholders, manufacturers, and federal partners. The goal is to identify and implement actions that will help to balance the supply and demand for distribution transformers.

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