Fears Rise As Rumors Spread That Wagner Is Preparing For Raids Into Polish Territory To Destabilize NATO

President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, standing in front of a war map showing a Russian incursion into Moldova from Odesa, 2022.Photo byWikimedia Commons

The Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, has warned the deployment of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus to being closer to NATO borders is an attempt to destabilize the military alliance. While small compared to the overall size of NATO military forces, the fact that Wagner could have as many as 4,000 fighters in Belarus still represents a capacity to potentially inflict harm on neighboring NATO states should they decide to launch raids or stage provocations against those supporting Ukraine. Beyond these acts, the main concern for NATO would be that Wagner on behalf of Russia and Belarus, and perhaps with some level of support, would act to seize the Suwalki Gap that stretches to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which would effectively cut off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the rest of the members of NATO. While extremely unlikely in the current situation, should it occur and NATO as a whole not act to protect its Baltic members, the alliance would suffer significant harm.

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have been wary of Belarus for some time now, as even before the recent arrival of Wagner mercenaries to the country, they had been weaponizing migrants through passing them into the European Union in order to destabilize it. With the arrival of Wagner, concerns actions have been raised further, which appear to be justified given the recent violation of Polish airspace by military helicopters from Belarus. While NATO as a whole is monitoring the situation, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have all indicated that they will be deploying additional troops and military equipment to their borders to protect against further actions.

While some have stated that Wagner, as it currently is equipped, is not a threat to NATO member countries, the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has said that "...we have to ensure that the message is clear that any attacks by the Wagner Group will be seen as an attack by the Russian government." The logic is, so long as this is clear to Wagner, and by extension Belarus and Russia, the likelihood of direct actions being taken by the enemies of Ukraine against members of NATO will remain low. We can but hope this will be the case.