First Alert Day Today & Saturday

Dew points have increased about 5 degrees since yesterday, and this should help fuel thunderstorms that are likely to charge southwest out of the mountains later this afternoon and evening. As of this writing (2 pm), the storms have yet to form, so it's going to be 6 pm at the earliest when any significant storms roll through the Triangle. They will persist into early tonight, then diminish toward midnight. Any of the storms this evening may have locally severe weather with damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours (street flooding).

Heights stay fairly low tomorrow, around 578-580dm. So, with lower heights, CAPE building again by the PM, and a weak boundary still in the vicinity, t-storms fire up again tomorrow afternoon and evening. While there may be a few isolated instances of severe weather tomorrow, the parameters are not high enough to believe any widespread severe storms will break out.

With weak troughing aloft still lingering on Saturday, there will still be an afternoon thunderstorm or two, but they are not expected to be widespread in coverage.

Of all the days this long Memorial Day weekend, Sunday seems the least likely day to see a thunderstorm. Weak ridging aloft will stabilize the atmosphere, and with no strong features at the surface or aloft, any storms that do form are likely to be air mass in nature and widely-separated in coverage. A trough and its attendant surface front will be approaching Memorial Day. This increases the likelihood of most of the viewing area receiving a thunderstorm on Monday afternoon and evening. Folks should keep this in mind when planning outdoor activities, especially hiking, and boating when shelter from storms is not always readily accessible.

Finally, the trailing frontal boundary sweeps through the area on Tuesday, and we will likely get a stretch of cooler, less humid conditions from Tuesday to Thursday of next week with general toughness across the NE and eastern Great Lakes. Enjoy the break from the heat and humidity-these will not be frequent in the weeks and months ahead.

Have a Great Evening!

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