2024 Kentucky Derby odds, picks and predictions

It’s time for the 2024 Kentucky Derby , which will be the 150th installment of the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville. It’s the first jewel in the American Triple Crown of horse racing. Live coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC), with post time for the Kentucky Derby at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze DraftKings Sportsbook lines around the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds , and make our expert picks and predictions.

Kentucky Derby: What you need to know

• The weather forecast calls for a temperature around 80 degrees, with a 35 percent chance of precipitation
• Encino , a Brad Cox-trained horse, has been scratched at the advice of a veterinarian due to a non-life threatening leg sprain. He had won 3 of his past 4 starts
• Epic Ride (48-1), the first alternate, will move into the field in place of Encino, starting from Post 20
• Fierceness (3-1), a Todd Pletched-trained horse, will now go off from Post 16 after Encino’s scratch, rather than “unlucky” Post 17. Fierceness won the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths
• Post 17 is the only spot in the field which a horse has never won in 150 running of the Kentucky Derby. Stronghold (32-1) will now start from Post 17 instead of Fierceness
• West Saratoga (27-1) resides in Barn 42, the same location Seattle Slew stayed before winning the 1977 Kentucky Derby and, eventually, the triple crown. He is trained by Larry Demeritte, just the 2nd black trainer since 1951 to saddle a horse in the Kentucky Derby
• Sierra Leone (5-1), is ridden by jockey Tyler Gaffalione. He has been the leading rider at Churchill Downs 11 times, but in 6 mounts at the Kentucky Derby, his average finish is 14th
• Jockey Flavien Prat is aboard Catching Freedom (8-1). He rode Country House to the 2019 Kentucky Derby win
• Just a Touch (11-1) has great blood lines, as he was sired by 2018 American Triple Crown winner Justify
• Domestic Product (28-1) is a Chad Brown-trained horse, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. He won the Tampa Bay Derby (March 30) in his most recent race, while finishing 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream (Feb. 3)

Kentucky Derby – Expert pick

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:21 p.m. ET.

FIERCENESS (+300) is one of the speediest horses in the field. He has won 3 of his past 5 races, including a victory in the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa (Grade 1), with a E Speed Figure of 110.

Fierceness is a Todd Pletcher-trained horse, ridden by John Velazquez. That trainer-jockey combination won with Always Dreaming in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, and Velazquez was aboard Authentic in 2020. Velazquez also steered Animal Kingdom to the winner’s circle in 2011 at the Derby.

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Kentucky Derby – Contender

If you’re a little more adventurous, and not interested in the favorites, or those with short odds, then JUST A TOUCH (+1100) might be more your speed.

The colt has amazing bloodlines, with 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify as the sire, and he was produced from the Tapit mare Touching Beauty.

Just a Touch won the Maiden Special Weight race in late January at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, while placing at both the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, and the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Kentucky Derby – Exacta pick

FIERCENESS and JUST A TOUCH ($2 EXACTA)

These are my 2 favorite horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. Fierceness is lightning-quick, while Just a Touch has all of the bloodlines.

If you bet a straight exacta, you’ll be betting on the exact order. So, if you take Fierceness to win, Just a Touch must also come in 2nd for your bet to win.

For more sports betting picks and tips , check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW .

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter . Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook . .

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