Report: Fresno’s functional unemployment shot to 31% in 2023

The Fresno area had an average annual unemployment rate of 7.5% in 2023, but counting the “functionally unemployed,” the actual jobless rate is closer to 31% and as high as 60%.

The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) last week released its True Rate of Unemployment (TRU) analysis , which tracks the “functionally unemployed,” defined by LISEP as the jobless plus those seeking full-time employment paying above poverty level — about $25,000 a year.

The Fresno metropolitan area had a TRU unemployment rate of 31.1%, according to the Washington, D.C.-based economic research firm. That gives it the second-highest functional unemployment rate among the 100 largest U.S. cities, edged out by McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX with a TRU  of 48%, which was unchanged from last year.

LISEP’s other metric, called the TRU Out of the Population (OOP), measures the functional unemployment rate of the entire working-age population age 16 and above.

On that metric, Fresno’s unemployment rate for 2023 was 60%.

LISEP also noted that Fresno had the third-highest increase in functional unemployment in the past year with a 7-point increase. Bakersfield’s TRU was 21% — below the national average of 23.3%, but a 9-point increase in 2023.

According to the state Employment Development Department, Fresno’s 2023 annual monthly average unemployment rate was  7.5% — up a percentage point from 2022.

The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colorado metro area ranked first in the nation for living-wage jobs with a TRU of 16%, with Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, ranking second at 18%.

“Our data again reveal crucial dynamics at play. Local communities investing in infrastructure, housing, and future-oriented industries consistently outperform those more reliant on low-wage jobs,” said LISEP Chairman Gene Ludwig. “These findings show that some regions are enabling middle- and working-class families to thrive — while others grapple with financial security.”

Ludwig also pointed to President Joe Biden’s recent announcement of a new “place-based” economic strategy, which acknowledges the uneven economic landscape across the country, with some communities thriving while others struggle. The strategy aims to direct resources to the areas where they are needed most. That, Ludwig said, is a step in the right direction.

“Breaking the U.S. economy down into individual, local economies gives us a clearer picture of these contrasting realities,” Ludwig said. “The challenge for policymakers lies in embracing real-world data to craft workable solutions — which begins with a clear picture of what works, what doesn’t, and what’s needed.”