Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

The Chicago Cubs (17-11) visit the New York Mets (14-13) at Citi Field Monday to begin a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2024; split last season 3-3

The Mets lost 4-2 in 11 innings as -136 home favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with the Under (8) still hitting despite the game going to extras. It was a pitchers’ duel early on, with both teams combining for just 2 runs in the 1st 10 innings. Mets 3B Mark Vientos walked it off with a 2-run HR in the 11th.

The Cubs, who were +140 underdogs, lost 5-4 at the Boston Red Sox Sunday night as the total (9) pushed. The Cubs nearly pulled off the upset, tying the game 4-4 in the 8th after trailing 4-0 in the 6th, but RHP Mark Leiter Jr. failed to get an out in the 9th, giving up 1 earned on 2 hits and a walk.

Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Luis Severino

Taillon (2-0, 1.69 ERA) makes his 3rd start this season. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 10 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home victory against Houston Astros Wednesday
• .300 OBA vs. left-handed batters and .191 vs. righties

Severino (2-2, 2.67 ERA) makes his 6th start of the season. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-1 loss to San Fransisco Giants Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 2-1, 2.25 ERA (16 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts

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Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 2, Cubs 1

Moneyline

The Mets are 8-5 after a win, good for the 3rd-best record in MLB.

The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, are 6-7 straight up as road underdogs. Given this is Taillon’s 1st road start, I expect some regression after his early success.

LEAN METS ( -130 ).

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets are 5-8 on the run line as home favorites. Combine that with the Cub’s 14-4 RL record as underdogs, and I would PASS , even at these odds.

Over/Under

The Cubs post a .295 OBP on the road, compared to .356 at Wrigley Field. The Mets are the opposite, with a higher OBP on the road (.340) than at home (.304).

And given the Cubs’ Under record of 6-3-1 after a loss, I see a low-scoring game.

BET UNDER 8 ( -110 ).

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