Texas State Bobcats Preview 2024
Sometimes a new coaching hire makes all the difference in the world.
Texas State tried to go fast and do things in an unconventional way under former head man Jake Spavital, but the program couldn’t seem to come through with any breaks in key moments - there hadn’t been a winning season since 2014.
In came 34-year-old GJ Kinne fresh off a fantastic 2022 season taking Incarnate Word to the FCS final four and a No. 3 overall finish. He was the spark Texas State needed.
His offense was great right away, there was more pop, production, speed, and points in the best year since the program moved into the FBS in 2012, and the defense was just as fun - if not as productive overall - with a hair-on-fire style that lived in opposing backfields.
Kinne miraculously wasn’t plucked by anyone during coaching search season, and now he has the team in place to do it all over again.
The West is gettable, but the two toughest games - Troy and South Alabama - are on the road. That doesn’t mean this can’t and won’t be the proverbial team no one wants to face as a menace for the rest of the Sun Belt.
Nothing was expected going into last year. This time around, watch for this to once again be one of those teams you have to go out of your way to see.
Texas State Preview 2024: Offense
- Well that worked out just fine. The 2023 Texas State Bobcats came up with just over 3,900 yards of total offense. In came new Kinne, and out came close to 6,000 yards in a fun attack that led the Sun Belt averaging 458 yards and 36.7 points per game. Enough parts are back to do it again.
- QB TJ Finley threw for over 3,400 yards and 24 touchdowns, but he’s off to Western Kentucky. That’s fine - who doesn’t want to run this attack? In comes Jordan McCloud from James Madison, and before that Arizona, and before that USF. He’s the veteran all-around playmaker who can keep the production going - and limit the mistakes.
With the return of 76-catch Joey Hobert and outside target Kole Wilson - along with a few decent transfers - the weapons are there. In all, five of the top six pass catchers are back, helped by do-it-all star …
- RB Ismail Mahdi is special. The 5-9, 180-pound flash of lightning ran for 1,331 yards and ten scores, caught 20 passes, and was an elite return man. He’s not alone with the the transfer portal loading up with options including UTEP’s Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess.
Three starters are back on the line - working around veteran LT Nash Jones - from a group that was great for the ground game but struggled in pass protection.
Texas State Preview 2024: Defense
- The defense had its moments, but it struggled on third downs, allowed 32.8 points per game, and … it was great at getting into the backfield. Yeah there were problems overall, but this bunch brought the heat with the second most tackles for loss per game behind Penn State. Consistency, though, wasn’t necessarily part of the fun, but this bunch took over games for stretches. And now …
- The transfer portal is bringing in the defensive ends. Tunmise Adeleye is a former big-time Texas A&M recruit coming in from Michigan State, and Steven Parker was a whale of a pass rusher at Incarnate Word from the last two years. These two should shine around a decent tackle rotation.
- The transfer portal is also bringing in depth for a secondary that can hit, but struggled overall in coverage. It’s an experienced bunch around S Kaleb Cupp, but the linebacking corps is relying on transfers to play big roles on the inside.
Texas State Key To The Season
Chill on the turnovers and KEEP SCORING.
The offense did its job, but it had to put up a ton of points. Texas State was 7-0 when scoring 35 points or more and 1-5 when it didn’t. That usually coincided with turnover margin, going -7 in the four losses and +6 in the wins. The fumbles have to stop - there were 13.
Texas State Key Player
CBs Joshua Eaton, Jr. and Chris Mills, Sr.
The pass rush was among the best in America, but it didn’t translate into enough production from the secondary. The third down stops weren’t there, the Bobcats were mediocre in pass efficiency defense, and there weren’t enough picks - five in the bowl, six over the other 12 games. The rotation at corner has to do more to get the D off the field.
Texas State Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss
Top Transfer In: QB Jordan McCloud
A very, very strong case could be made for former Incarnate Word pass rushing terror Steven Parker, but McCloud comes in as the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year after throwing 35 touchdown passes and rushing for eight scores at James Madison.
Top Transfer Out: WR Ashtyn Hawkins
The loss of QB TJ Finley to WKU matters, but McCloud makes up for it. The receivers are there to be fine, but Hawkins was the big play threat averaging close to 16 yards per grab on 55 catches. Now he’s a Baylor Bear.
Texas State Key Game
at Troy, Oct. 3
Uhhhhh ... 0-9. That’s what Texas State is against Troy starting in 2012. Worse yet, all but three were ugly blowouts including last year’s 31-13 drubbing. It’s the Sun Belt opener, but it could decide the West right out of the gate.
Texas State 10 Best Players
1. Ismail Mahdi, RB Jr
2. Jordan McCloud, QB Sr.
3. Steven Parker, DE Sr.
4. Joey Hobert, WR Sr.
5. Kole Wilson, WR Jr.
6. Deion Hankins, RB Sr.
7. Nash Jones, OT Sr.
8. Kaleb Culp, S Sr.
9. Mason Shipley, PK Jr.
10. Tunmise Adeleye, DE Jr.
Texas State 2023 Fun Stats
- 1st Quarter Scoring: Texas State 148 - Opponents 80
- Penalties: Texas State 95 for 900 yards - Opponents 74 for 614 yards
- Onside Kicks: Texas State 2-of-5 - Opponents 0-of-3
Texas State 2024 Season Prediction, Win Total, What Will Happen
Can the Bobcats pull off another Baylor-like upset?
Last season they set the tone for the Kinne era right away with a shocking 42-31 win over the Bears, and after that they beat a whole slew of lightweights up until getting by Georgia Southern and South Alabama in November - the win over USA was the only victory over a team that finished with a winning record.
With this offense there’s no game on the schedule the Bobcats can’t win, and that includes the home date against Arizona State.
They miss a slew of the key players in the Sun Belt East - not playing Appalachian State, James Madison, Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina, and Marshall - but they have to go on the road to face Troy and South Alabama.
There will be times when the defense lets the offense down - watch out for the trip to Old Dominion and the home date against Arkansas State - but after going to a bowl game for the first time in school history, they’re about to make it two in a row.
Set The Texas State Win Total At … 7.5
Likely Wins: Lamar, Arkansas State, at ULM, Southern Miss
50/50 Games: Arizona State, UTSA, at Sam Houston, at Old Dominion, Louisiana, Georgia State, at South Alabama
Likely Losses: at Troy
- CFN 2024 College Football Preview
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