Cardinals Takeaways after First Month of Season: Pitching, defense pretty solid, some signs of concerns with hitting

ST. LOUIS (KMOX) - The first month of the season has quickly come to pass and while the Cardinals are still in last place in the NL Central and are under .500 as the team gets ready to play the Detroit Tigers in Comerica Park, the vibes from 2023 and 2024 certainly feel different.

Here are four takeaways from the Cardinals after as April draws to a close and the Cardinals get ready to head into May.

Look, any realistic Cardinals fans didn't expect the Cardinals 2024 rotation to suddenly turn into a rotation full of five reincarnated Bob Gibson's, or even the 2023 Minnesota Twins or 2022 Houston Astros starting rotations, but expectations for a improved 2024 rotation compared 2023 was certainly high.

The Cardinals did add to the rotation with the signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn over the offseason, even if the signings felt lackluster.

But to the Cardinals credit, the rotation has been decent to begin 2024, posting a 4.21 ERA, and 4.51 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) this season, while not great, a improvement over the 4.96 ERA and 4.76 FIP the Cardinals posted in the first month of 2023.

Gray has been excellent for the Cardinals so far, posting a 1.16 ERA in four great starts, while Lynn and Gibson have been ok, posting a 2.76 ERA/ 4.76 FIP, and 4.35 ERA/5.25 FIP respectively.

There are certainly on doubts on if the rotation can continue to be solid, considering their 4.51 FIP is the fifth-worst in the majors and their Skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is 4.23 is in the bottom ten of the majors , but their expected FIP (xFIP) of 4.13 is in the middle of the pack, and the rotation has done well keeping batters from getting hard contact . So far, it's been decent.

The Cardinals rotation will certainly have questions as the season goes on, especially if injuries become a factor, but the other part of the pitching staff is a whole another story and it feels bold to say it right now this early, but whatever: the Cardinals bullpen has potential to be really good this year.

A year after blowing 28 save opportunities, which was tied for the second most in the National League, the Cardinals went to make improvements in the bullpen, adding new pieces including Riley O'Brien, Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittridge and Ryan Fernandez to go alongside Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero.

To the Cardinals credit, the 2024 Cardinals bullpen looks nothing like the 2023 bullpen that posted the third-worst bullpen ERA in the National League and the seventh-lowest strikeout percentage in Major Leagues. The Cardinals 2024 bullpen has posted the fifth-best strikeout percentage in baseball (25.9%), the sixth best fWAR at 1.1 and their FIP and SIERAs are both in the top-five in the majors.

While O'Brien and Middleton have to yet to make huge impacts due to injuries, and Gallegos has struggled to begin 2024, the rest of the bullpen looks incredibly sharp. Kittridge and Fernandez look like absolutely masterclass acquisitions by the Cardinals front office, with both players FIPs in the top-20 of Major League Baseball.

That not to go without giving props to closer Ryan Helsley and set up man JoJo Romero having been a shutdown 8-9 inning combo to begin the year, with both players' SIERAs in the top-25 in all of Major League Baseball relievers.

With O'Brien and Middleton working their ways back, the Cardinals could add more help soon to be a bullpen that has been absolutely excellent to begin 2024 and there's plenty of reason to think they can continue to be good in 2024.

While much focus was on the pitching for the cause of the Cardinals 2023 collapse that saw them post their worst win percentage since 1995 and first 90-loss season since 1990, the Cardinals defensive regression also was a cause in the collapse.

After posting the among the best defensive stats from 2019-2022, the Cardinals defense regressed tremendously, posting mediocre defensive stats in 2023.

There were certainly plenty of reasons for the regression, from Jordan Walker adjusting to right field in 2023, the transition from now-retired Yadier Molina to Willson Contreras, and injuries, a improvement from 2023 to 2024 defensively was needed.

The Cardinals defense in 2024, while certainly not near the peak of 2019-2022, the Cardinals have been solid defensively, posting around average to solid defensive numbers overall, depending which defensive stat you at between Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

Plenty of players on the roster have seen improvements defensively, from Contreras posting excellent numbers behind the plate compared to 2023, Walker posting highlight defensive plays and numbers before his demotion to Triple-A and Nolan Arenado have posted his usual Gold Glove defense at third after surprisingly down season defensively by his standards.

There's still plenty of room for improvements defensively (looking at you Masyn Winn and Paul Goldschmidt) but so far, solid enough compared to 2023, while not as great as it was from 2019-2022.

The Cardinals has been really slow to start 2024 with the Cardinals tied for the fewest home runs hit in baseball with the terrible Chicago White Sox and posting the fourth-worst weight runs created plus (wRC+) in baseball.

Only two players (Contreras and Masyn Winn) have posted above-average hitting numbers to begin 2024, while Nolan Arenado, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan are in the range of posting average numbers.

While many are going to say it's only April and they will improve and while that may be true, there plenty to suggest the Cardinals hitting could be a struggle this year. According to Baseball Savant, the Cardinals barrel rates is among the worst in not just the National League, but in Major League Baseball, posting only 42 barrels, the second worst in the Majors . Only the White Sox are worst.

Along that, the Cardinals expected numbers like expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) are all only middle of the pack , a far cry from expectations by some the offense could be among the top-10.

A big cause of the struggles stems from the struggles of hitting the fastball, with only two players (Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson) posting above average run values against the four-seam fastball . For comparison, seven players are posting at least average run values against the sinker .

A few players have seen early season struggles, including Paul Goldschmidt, whose age could be catching up to him as he posted his worst April OPS (.591) since his first full season in the majors in 2012 (.569).

If you want good news though, a few Cardinals bats have started to heat up, including Goldschmidt (.882 OPS in last six games) and the Cardinals hard hit percentage average of 88.8 mph is on the upper half of the table .

However, the concerns are real and it could be struggle for the Cardinals offensively as the season goes on.