Has Rochester had its final freeze?

May has arrived. The lilacs are blooming, our scenery is turning ever more colorful as our days lengthen. We’re also not far removed from a pair of late April nights that fell below freezing, damaging crops across parts of the region where efforts to mitigate the cold weren’t enough to prevent loss.

May is a month of continued warming as our sun angle increases, becoming ever more effective in preventing additional freezes. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. In fact, May freezes aren’t necessarily uncommon, particularly in the first week or two of May. Over the last 50 years, Rochester’s final freeze date occurred in May almost 40% of the time. Note the clustering of snowflakes (marking the final freeze date of each year) around/just prior to May 1.

Statistically, it is reasonable to take comfort that the odds at this point suggest it’s certainly possible, if not probable, Rochester has seen its last freeze. The model data ahead certainly lends some additional padding to that notion.

However, Rochester has experienced a freeze as late as May 29th (1889). The other glaring reality is all the data above covers the Rochester Airport. We are a region of many microclimates and varying elevations, all playing some role in manipulating the ultimate final freeze date for your particular location. For areas near the protection of Lake Ontario, you’re final freeze date is often earlier. Parts of the Finger Lakes and southern Tier can deal with final freezes that linger longer.

While the longer range model data is encouraging, history tells not we can’t let our guard down just yet. It’s quite possible our region has dealt with the final freeze of the season. We likely have a few more weeks to get through before we can sound the all-clear on that declaration. This will be something we’ll be monitoring closely as our unseasonably warm winter has helped spur an earlier blossoming this season. Impacts from any additional freezes would likely be magnified and preferably, avoided.

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