Wednesday, May 1: Unsettled pattern through the weekend, severe risk increasing next week

Cloudy skies ruled this morning but sunshine won the battle in the afternoon. This gave much of the area another day to dry out. There was a wave of thunderstorms that spread through areas near and east of Hwy. 63 with locally heavy rain totals that topped 1″.

The pattern looks quiet tonight into Thursday morning. Morning lows in the 60s will quickly warm into the 70s under morning sunshine. A couple of different rain triggers will work together to blanket the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The severe risk looks pretty limited, but a few “pulsey” storms might be strong enough to generate isolated areas of hail and strong winds.

The risk for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday night with the focus shifting south into Arkansas as the night progresses.

The cold front moving in won’t “cleanly” move through leaving plenty of moisture around for a cloudy start to the day. Clouds will thin some by afternoon with warm and humid weather hanging around. A few pop-up showers are also possible, mainly south of I-44.

The pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend with a persistent southwest flow over the area sending waves of scattered storms our way. We’ll see a round of rain and thunder moving through during the day Saturday, likely arriving in the morning and wrapping up by late afternoon. Another wave of rain and thunder is expected later in the day on Sunday. Conditions will remain a little warm and humid, and the overnight and morning hours could feature some areas of dense fog, especially south of I-44.

Severe weather chances look limited through the weekend thanks to rather weak levels of wind energy. That said, a few of the storms may become strong enough to produce some hail and locally strong winds. Heavy rain could lead to some localized flooding as well. Rain totals through the weekend will tend to be in the 1 to 3″ range.

We’re keeping an eye on the pattern for next week. A stronger storm system will move into the middle of the country bringing stronger atmospheric winds back to the region. This coupled with a front that may wobble across the region will lead to the potential for episodes of strong to severe storms in the region much of next week.

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