Light winds kick off new week with stronger trades in forecast

HONOLULU (KHON2) – Drier air has filtered in today as evidenced by decreased cloud cover compared to yesterday and precipitation-free conditions in most locales.

However, some moisture continues wrapping around the Big Island and is supporting a few afternoon showers over Kauai and vicinity.

This may be the case on Monday afternoon as well as the weak gradient gives rise to expanding sea breezes over Kauai coincident with a mid- level shortwave grazing the islands from the north.

This should further reduce stability over Kauai and may result in a couple locally heavy showers over interior or leeward zones during Monday afternoon.

The high res guidance offers a similar picture which increases forecast confidence.

Any afternoon convection will diminish with the loss of diurnal heating Monday evening.

The pattern will remain generally stagnant through at least Tuesday.

Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores through the forecast period.

A small northwest, medium-period swell will persist through mid-week with small surf expected.

Breezy east or east southeasterly flow will produce choppy surf along east facing shores through tonight, then decrease as winds begin to taper off.

Small, short-period southeast, and small medium-period south swell will continue into mid-next week.

Surf heights along the south facing shores should remain near or slightly below seasonal norms.

Wednesday into Thursday will represent a transition period back to a typical easterly trade wind pattern.

Global model consensus indicates that a low will close off over or near the islands immediately south of expansive ridging building over the Central Pacific.

This will set the stage for a breezy and weakly stable easterly trade wind pattern settling in by week’s end.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters.