Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest Developments

_{May 22, 12:43 AM}

That’s a wrap!

With all of tonight's key races now projected, it's time for us to hit the hay. Here's a recap of who won today:

- Despite trying to ride the wave of voter activation over abortion, former Democratic Rep. John Barrow failed to unseat Republican-appointed Justice Andrew Pinson in the only contested race for Georgia Supreme Court today.

- Challenges to a pair of major figures in Trump's Georgia election-interference case also went nowhere. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis easily won her Democratic primary, and Judge Scott McAfee won his judicial election against a self-described "conservative Democrat."

- The Republican primary in Georgia's 3rd District is going to a June 18 runoff between longtime Trump staffer Brian Jack and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan.

- In Georgia's 13th District , incumbent Rep. David Scott prevailed over his six challengers to win his Democratic primary and will go on to seek reelection in November. Scott's challengers tried to focus on his age and health as an issue, echoing criticisms facing the Democrats and President Joe Biden in November, but incumbency proved too powerful an advantage.

- Out west, the DCCC got their candidate in Oregon's 5th District , as state Rep. Janelle Bynum easily dispatched attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost in 2022 in this seat against Republican Rep Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum will face off against Chavez-DeRemer this November.

- In Oregon's 3rd District , state Rep. Maxine Dexter benefited from a plethora of outside spending to defeat former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal in the Democratic primary, all-but-ensuring that Dexter will be this dark-blue seat's next representative.

- Republican Mike Erickson will get a third shot at winning a House seat as he cruised to victory in the GOP primary for Oregon's 6th District . At times, Erickson seems more focused on winning a defamation case against Rep. Andrea Salinas regarding an ad she aired last cycle against him than he does on beating her in an election.

- In Idaho's 2nd District, incumbent Republican Mike Simpson is poised to win his primary and likely reelection this fall. With more than 60 percent of the votes counted, he leads his closest challenger, investment adviser Scott Cleveland, 57 percent to 34 percent. (Scott Cleveland is a great quarterback name, now that this politics thing doesn't seem to be working out.)

- In the special election in California's 20th District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Assemblyman Vince Fong defeated fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux. As a result, Speaker Mike Johnson will soon get an extra vote in the House.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

_{May 22, 12:26 AM}

Simpson prevails in Idaho

The AP is now projecting that Simpson has won the Republican nomination in Idaho's 2nd District. The story of Simpson's career is that he has been moderate enough to arouse significant discontent in primaries, but not enough discontent to make him lose. This time around, he's pulling 57 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

_{May 22, 12:05 AM}

Anchorage, Alaska, has ousted its conservative mayor

This election actually happened last week, but the outcome just became official today: Suzanne LaFrance has defeated incumbent Dave Bronson in the election for mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. Bronson belonged to a right-wing faction of city politics, while LaFrance aligned herself with Democrats. LaFrance is also the first woman elected mayor of Anchorage.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

_{May 22, 12:02 AM}

Greater Idaho grows?

Elsewhere in Oregon, Crook County is poised to become the 13th county to vote to secede from the state and join Idaho. These ballot initiatives are non-binding advisory votes, but a large swath of the sparsely-populated eastern part of the state has voted in favor of secession since 2020.

—Irena Li, 538

_{May 21, 11:59 PM}

I guess we’ll never know …

Interesting, guys. Yeah, the multiple variables at play in Oregon make it hard to say whether Oregon Democrats were consciously pushing back against progressives or if the big spending just overwhelmed everything else.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

_{May 21, 11:59 PM}

Money talks?

Ultimately, in congressional primaries, if you are getting absolutely swamped by your opponent with advertising — both negative and positive, unlike in some other recent primaries with spending disparities — you're going to have a hard time. Susheela Jayapal was up against $5.7 million in pro-Dexter spending and could only marshal a few hundred thousand dollars of advertising. McLeod-Skinner faced $5.7 million of outside spending hitting her and boosting Bynum and only aired about $200,000 worth of advertisements. In an expensive media market, that makes it tough to get your message out, let alone respond effectively to attacks.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

_{May 21, 11:58 PM}

Progressives might be especially disadvantaged in Oregon

That's interesting, Meredith, but I also think that Portland-area voters are a little frustrated with the progressive movement, particularly in the wake of the debacle with decriminalizing drugs that the legislature recently rolled back. There may be some local dynamics that really matter in Oregon, but aren't as influential elsewhere in the country, that are holding progressive candidates back — as you can see in my previous post about polling in the area regarding homelessness and crime. Both the 5th and 3rd districts are in the Portland area, so progressives there may be suffering some blowback from these issues.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

_{May 21, 11:55 PM}

Is progressive influence waning?

That's a good question, Nathaniel. It could be that big spending wins primaries. Another takeaway could be that progressive candidates are losing steam. In the 3rd and the 5th, the candidates more aligned with the progressive wing ended up losing (Jayapal and McLeod-Skinner). But I don't think that's the take away. I think it's more so a consequence of progressive's effective movement. Voters had their pick of several progressive candidates in those races, and yes, the candidates who spent more prevailed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

_{May 21, 11:53 PM}

The lesson out of Oregon

Based on the blowouts in Oregon’s 3rd and 5th District Democratic primaries, is the lesson here just “big spending works”?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

_{May 21, 11:46 PM}

More results in Oregon's 4th District

With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Oregon's 4th District, DeSpain's lead has increased over former Keizer city councilmember, Amy Ryan Courser. It now stands at 58 percent to 41 percent, respectively.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

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