Summer heat forecast for Dallas-Fort Worth says ‘above normal.’ Here’s what that means

North Texas is a few weeks away from the official start of summer. But even before the summer solstice on June 20 temperatures are sure to heat up. So, just how hot will it get?

It depends on who you ask.

But before North Texans can bask (or bemoan) in the summer heat, they’ll have to deal with severe weather this week. The National Weather Service forecast showed potential for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes Tuesday through Saturday. On Wednesday, a tornado watch was issued for 36 counties in North and Central Texas.

Texas is known for its sweltering summers, with one study saying that it could get even hotter in years to come. Here’s what we know about this summer in North Texas.

[RELATED: Texas could see a 125-degree day in our lifetimes, study says.]

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How hot will summer temperatures be in North Texas?

The current seasonal temperature outlook for North Texas is predicting above normal conditions for June, July and August.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued the three month outlook on May 16. A majority of Texas is showing to have above normal temperatures over the summer months.

However, above normal temperatures doesn’t always equate to extreme heat.

“Above normal doesn’t necessarily mean extreme heat,” said Patricia Sanchez, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office. “It could be a couple degrees more.”

Next in line for the Climate Prediction Center’s models is the one month outlook for June , which was issued last week.

North Texas is split between leaning above (40-50%) and likely above (50-60%) normal temperatures for June. The Metroplex is an outlier on the model, as the rest of the state is predicted to see likely above normal temperatures for the month.

At least for the next week in North Texas, the NWS is forecasting temperatures fluctuating between the high 80s to mid 90s.

When does North Texas typically see its first 100 degree day of the year?

Last year, North Texas recorded 55 days over triple digits, an eight day increase from 2022’s 47 days.

On average, North Texas doesn’t record its first 100-degree day until July 1, Sanchez said. The Metroplex has certainly recorded triple digits before then, but on average, that’s when it occurs.

What’s the hottest temperature recorded in North Texas this year?

That would be earlier this month at 95 degrees on May 8.

In total, North Texas has recorded seven days at 90 degrees. In May alone, the NWS has clocked six days at or above 90 degrees.

The first 90-degree day of the year came on Feb. 26 at 94 degrees. Reaching 90 degrees that early in the year may seem like a preview of a sweltering summer season, but it does not.

“History and climatology shows us that however early we do reach that 90 degree, it doesn’t necessarily back up with what we’ll look like over the summer,” NWS warning coordination meteorologist Jennifer Dunn told the Star-Telegram in February.