5 initial thoughts on Celtics-Cavaliers Eastern Conference semifinals

When chants of “We want Boston” echoed through the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse as the Cleveland Cavaliers put the finishing touches on their 106-94 series-clinching victory over the Orlando Magic, it was clear the wait was over for the Celtics.

Like the first round, the Celtics were the last team to learn their opponent. It wasn’t until mid-Sunday afternoon that Cleveland emerged victorious from a grueling seven-game battle with the Magic, setting the stage for the Eastern Conference semifinals.

“For us coming into Boston, I’m pretty sure everybody thinks they are going to come in and kick our ass,” Donovan Mitchell said after the win. “For us to continue to stay level-headed throughout, we [can’t listen to the media]. Just be who we are. That’s the biggest thing.”

Mitchell’s assumption is accurate. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Celtics at -1600 (!) favorites to win the series, while DraftKings has the C’s at -1200 – insane numbers for a second-round series.

Boston and Cleveland haven’t crossed paths in the postseason since 2018. That year, rookie Jayson Tatum and sophomore Jaylen Brown led a spirited effort against LeBron James and the Cavs, pushing the series to a dramatic Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals despite the absences of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward.

This year, the Celtics took the season series with Cleveland two games to one, with an average margin of victory of +5.0.

One of Boston’s losses to Cleveland occurred when Mitchell was sidelined with a knee injury. In that game, Dean Wade scored 20 points in the fourth quarter on a perfect 7-of-7 from the field and 5-of-5 from deep, leading the Cavs to a stunning comeback. They closed the game with a 34-11 run, erasing a 22-point fourth-quarter lead held by Boston.

Game 1 will be Tuesday night at TD Garden.

Here are five initial thoughts on the Celtics-Cavaliers semifinal matchup:

On the health front

Unfortunately, injuries have been a hot topic this postseason, and it’s no different for these two teams.

While Kristaps Porzingis hopes to be on the court quickly, all signs appear to point to him not playing in this series due to the soleus strain he suffered in the Celtics’ Game 4 win in Miami.

“There’s no specific date. It’s still pretty early. I think it will be clearer once I start doing more stuff,” Porzingis said after practice Saturday. “Not super close yet. But expecting to recover at a historic rate.”

For Cleveland, Jarrett Allen missed the final three games of the first round with a rib injury, and Dean Wade (knee) missed the final 12 games of the regular season and all seven games of round one. Wade remains out indefinitely.

Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is playing through a nagging knee injury.

Allen’s potential availability could significantly impact the series, particularly with his prowess around the rim and in pick-and-roll situations. His presence, alongside Evan Mobley, would provide the Cavs with a formidable inside presence, posing a challenge for Boston, especially in the absence of Porzingis.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Cavaliers have a 116.5 offensive rating and a 112.7 defensive rating with Allen on the floor. With Allen off, they have posted a 113.1 offensive rating and 113.3 defensive rating. With Allen on the floor, who averaged 16.5 points and 10.5 boards, the Cavaliers are +202; with him off, they are +22.

After Game 7, Mitchell expressed confidence in Allen’s impending return, stating, “There is an exhale because Jarrett is coming back.”

Beware of the Celtics killers

After torching the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals a season ago, averaging 19.3 points per game on 60.2% shooting from the field and 48.9% from deep en route to +31, the Celtics finally put to rest the haunting memory of Caleb Martin in the first round.

Now, they will be tasked with a few other known Celtics killers in Max Strus and Donovan Mitchell.

Strus has been a thorn in the side of the Celtics’ for years, specifically in the postseason. Meanwhile, since the 2019-20 season, only Joel Embiid (471) has scored more points than Mitchell (386) against the Celtics. It’s worth nothing Mitchell spent the 2019-20 and 2021-22 seasons in the Western Conference.

In his two games against the Celtics this season, Mitchell averaged 30.0 points on 50% shooting, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. The five-time All-Star is one of the rare scorers the Celtics have struggled to contain this season.

And, of course, you can’t forget about Caris LeVert, who dropped 26 points against the Celtics in mid-December, along with a career-high 51-point game in 2020 and another 41-point performance last season. In 17 career games against the Celtics, LeVert has averaged 16.7 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.8% from distance.

Keeping up in the race

In the regular season, the Cavaliers’ offense was 16th-ranked in the NBA. Boston, however, had a significantly better performance, with a record that outpaced the Cavaliers by 7.5 points per 100 possessions. Defensively, the Cavaliers ranked seventh, allowing 112.1 points per 100 possessions, while Boston held the second spot with a rating of 110.6.

The Cavs hit a wall after the All-Star break, finishing the season 12-17. Their offensive rating dropped from 15th (116.2) to 20th (112.0), and their defensive rating plummeted from second (110.3) to 25th (115.5).

In the first round of the playoffs, Cleveland’s defense ranked fourth with a rating of 104.9. Yet, their offense lagged behind at 15th with a rating of 100.0. Meanwhile, Boston showcased a robust defensive effort, ranking third with a rating of 100.7, complemented by an equally impressive offensive performance, also ranking third with a rating of 117.7.

One of the reasons the Celtics can build such big leads is their dominance on the perimeter, an area the Cavs struggled in their slugfest with Orlando.

In round one, Boston averaged a league-best 15.0 made threes per game, almost doubling up Cleveland, who made an NBA-fewest 8.6 per game.

Boston shot 38.5% from beyond the arc (second-best), while Cleveland shot 28.7% (second-worst). In five games this postseason, the Celtics made 75 threes. Cleveland made just 60 in a seven-game series.

If you are going to beat the Celtics, you have to keep them off the perimeter. Boston is 58-7 when making the same number or more threes as their opponents and 10-12 when making fewer.

With Cleveland’s lineup dealing with injuries, the question arises: can they match Boston’s performance on both ends of the floor? While Donovan Mitchell is undoubtedly capable of securing at least one victory for the Cavs single-handedly, the key lies in support from the rest of the team, whether they can match Boston for the duration of the series, and whether they can find consistency.

Experience

Since LeBron James handed Jayson Tatum his initial taste of playoff disappointment, much has changed.

Though Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford remain from that series, they’ve accumulated invaluable experience over the years. Following that setback to James and the Cavs, Tatum, Brown, and the Celtics have made five postseason appearances, including three trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and a subsequent journey to the NBA Finals in 2022.

Boston’s starting lineup, comprising Derrick White (58), Jrue Holiday (75), Brown (110), Tatum (99), and Horford (172), collectively brings a wealth of playoff experience with 514 appearances. In contrast, Cleveland’s lineup has only totaled 143.

In total, the Celtics roster has 585 playoff games under their belts, while Cleveland has 293.

Navigating the NBA playoffs demands unparalleled mental and physical endurance. Boston’s familiarity with postseason intensity could be a significant advantage, complementing its talent on the court.

Stay the course

There is a reason the Celtics are such heavy favorites to win this series. They are undoubtedly the better team, which will test Boston’s mindset again.

Joe Mazzulla’s consistent message to stick to their regular-season approach and avoid preconceived game expectations paid off in the first round against Miami. They handled business efficiently, staying focused and disciplined.

The same mentality applies to the Cleveland series. Last season’s missed opportunity against the Philadelphia 76ers serves as a reminder. Despite Joel Embiid’s absence in Game 1 due to injury, the Celtics faltered, unnecessarily extending the series to seven games.

As long as the Celtics focus on what they can control — the margins, effort, intensity, and focus — this series should be wrapped up in no more than six games. The Celtics are far too talented for anything more if they control the controllables.

Cleveland will be tougher than Miami, but the recipe for success remains the same.