Cincinnati Bearcats Preview 2024
That’s not how it was supposed to work.
Under Luke Fickell, Cincinnati won 53 games in five seasons as it rose up into the premier Group of Five program, breaking through the glass ceiling as the first to get into the College Football Playoff.
UC got the call to move up to the Big 12, but it coincided with a rebuild in all phases including at coach with Fickell taking off for Wisconsin.
Scott Satterfield wasn’t able to keep the production going, there weren’t any breaks whatsoever, and win percentage-wise, it was the school’s worst season since 1994.
It might still take a little bit for the Bearcats to find their footing, but Satterfield is a good enough head man to at least get them back into the bowl circuit as the reloading continues.
It’s hardly blah-and-gloom, though.
The coaching staff did a fantastic job of loading up through the transfer portal, the schedule couldn’t be more reasonably manageable - no Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, BYU, or Kansas - and best of all, no one’s seeing UC coming.
In an even Big 12 from top-to-bottom, the expectations will be low, the team can do the “nobody believes in us thing,” and with what’s in place, there’s a shot to be one of the conference surprises.
Cincinnati Preview 2024: Offense
- The offense was too hit-or-miss. The ground game was among the best in the nation, but the downfield passing attack wasn’t there and the mistakes were flowing. With that said, average 426 yards of total offense a game again, and good things will happen. That starts with the running backs.
Corey Kiner ran for 1,047 yards and five scores. He’s back, but No. 2 back Myles Montgomery left for UCF. That’s remedied by landing Evan Pryor from Ohio State to add even more flash to what Kiner brings. It helps that …
- The line will once again be a plus. Gavin Gerhardt is one of the Big 12’s best centers, but he’s hardly alone with all five starters expected to be back. There were too many sacks and tackles for loss allowed, but that’s partly because of the mobility of former starting QB Emory Jones stretched plays out. Fortunately …
- Likely new starting QB Brendan Sorsby can move, too. Maybe not like Jones, but he’ll help with the ground game. There are some changes in the receiving corps, but leading receiver Xzavier Henderson is back after catching 58 passes for 782 yards and three scores. The transfer portal is helping with Tony Johnson (Florida Atlantic) for the outside and Tyrin Smith (UTEP) for the slot.
Cincinnati Preview 2024: Defense
- The O wasn’t bad. The D was another story. There wasn’t any pass rush, the big plays weren’t there, the run defense was bad, and overall the group gave up 403 yards and 30 points per game. This is where the transfer portal comes in.
- The idea is to get instant help to get behind the line with former Wisconsin Badger Darian Varner and Eastern Michigan’s Mike Coleman expected to be factors right away.
They get the benefit of playing around - possibly - the best defensive tackle in college football, Dontay Corleone, who’ll combine with 305-pound Jalen Hunt to gum up the interior.
The line will be fine, but the linebackers have to do more cleaning up. There are veterans for the inside with Jack Dingle and Jonathan Thompson, and transfer Jared Bartlett (West Virginia) will work in a hybrid role.
- The Bearcats are looking at the portal to fix the glitches. There’s not a total overhaul, but more playmakers have to emerge.
Safeties Mehki Miller and Joshua Minkins (Louisville) and Mehki Miller (New Mexico State) are instant starters, and if he can regain the level he played at earlier in his career at Georgia Southern, Derrick Canteen (Virginia Tech) will be the team’s to corner.
Cincinnati Key To The Season
Don’t turn the ball over.
The overall run defense stats stunk, but they were sort of skewed - a bulk of the yards allowed came in three losses to Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas. As long as the offense is able to keep the mistakes to a minimum, things should be fine.
UC wasn’t that bad when it came to turnovers, but the team was 0-6 when giving the ball away twice, 3-3 when it didn’t. Until the D comes up with more big stops, the O staying clean is a must.
Cincinnati Key Player
DE Darian Varner, Sr.
A seemingly great get for Wisconsin, the former Temple Owl rose into a pass rushing star with 10.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in his two years in Philadelphia. In Madison he wasn’t able to do much, and now it’s his job to try finding his groove again to give the Bearcats some semblance of a pass rush.
Cincinnati Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss
Top Transfer In: QB Brendan Sorsby
A decent passer when he stepped in at Indiana last season, he threw for close to 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns with five picks and ran for 276 yards and four scores. He’s a big 6-3, 235-pound all-around playmaker who fits the system.
Top Transfer Out: TE Chamon Metayer
There weren’t any killer losses for Cincinnati through the transfer portal - overall the team won the exchange - but there were just enough to be annoying. Metayer is an NFL-sized 6-5, 225-pound receiver with 23 grabs with five scores last season, and now he’ll be catching his passes from Shedeur Sanders at Colorado.
Cincinnati Key Game
Houston, Sept. 21
Get one right away. The Bearcats only won one Big 12 game last season, and it didn’t come until mid-November … against Houston. This time around the conference campaign opens against the Cougars. A home loss wouldn’t be devastating - the schedule over the following few weeks isn’t awful - but it would be a hit.
Cincinnati 10 Best Players
1. Dontay Corleone, DT Jr.
2. Corey Kiner, RB Sr.
3. Gavin Gerhardt, C Sr.
4. Xzavier Henderson, WR Sr.
5. Derrick Canteen, CB Sr.
6. Brendan Sorsby, QB Soph.
7. Mehki Miller, S Sr.
8. Tony Johnson, WR Jr.
9. Mason Fletcher, P Sr.
10. Darian Varner, DE Sr.
Cincinnati 2023 Fun Stats
- 4th Down Conversions: Opponents 12-of-17 (71%), Cincinnati 14-of-31 (45%)
- Opponents 1st Quarter Scoring: 55, Opponents 2nd Quarter Scoring: 114
- Touchdowns Scored: Opponents 46, Cincinnati 35
Cincinnati 2024 Season Prediction, Win Total, What Will Happen
Schedule wasn’t an excuse for the Bearcats last season.
They weren’t bad against Oklahoma, didn’t play Texas, and got enough mid-level to medicare teams to have been better than 3-9.
Miami University wasn’t mediocre, but it was a MAC team, and the Bearcats lost the rivalry game. That turned out to be a bit of a taste of things to come, and now it’s up to this year’s team to start winning more of the tight battles.
Again, missing Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas this year is huge, and not playing BYU or Baylor isn’t bad, either.
Assume it gets the Victory Bell back from the RedHawks as part of a good first half of the season dealing with Towson from the FCS and five teams that came up with losing seasons in the first six games.
It’ll be a fight through the Big 12 slate, but the Bearcats will have a shot to go bowling when the dates against Kansas State and TCU come around in the end.
Set The Cincinnati Win Total At … 5.5
Likely Wins: Towson
50/50 Games: Arizona State, at Colorado, Houston, at Iowa State, at Miami University, Pitt, TCU, at Texas Tech, at UCF, West Virginia
Likely Losses: at Kansas State
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