Bruins-Panthers series preview: 5 thoughts ahead of second round

The Bruins are riding high after Saturday’s emotional Game 7 overtime win against the Maple Leafs, but it’s right back to business as they now open the second round Monday night in Sunrise, Florida against the Panthers, with puck drop set for 8 p.m.

Here are five thoughts on the series:

1. The Bruins are the underdogs this time

Boston did win all four regular-season games against Florida this year, but make no mistake: The Bruins are the underdogs this time around.

Last year, the Bruins were the overwhelming favorites going into their first-round series against the Panthers, but we know how that turned out. This Panthers team is deeper and better than last year’s, and this Bruins team is not as deep or as talented as last year’s.

That doesn’t mean the Bruins can’t win, of course. Far from it. But the Panthers are a formidable opponent in every way. They gave up the fewest goals in the NHL this season. They ranked fifth in 5-on-5 goal differential. Their power play and penalty kill both ranked top 10. They’re arguably the most physical and best forechecking team in the league. They just disposed of the Lightning in five games in the first round.

Matthew Tkachuk (88 points in the regular season, nine in the first round) and Aleksander Barkov (80 points, Selke Trophy finalist) remain the heartbeat of the team, but there’s also Sam Reinhart coming off a career year (57 goals) and Carter Verhaeghe topping 70 points again (and then matching Tkachuk’s nine points against Tampa). Deadline acquisition Vladimir Tarasenko has fit in well and brings Stanley Cup pedigree.

Gustav Forsling had his best season to date on defense and will likely get Norris Trophy votes. The offseason additions of Niko Mikkola and a rejuvenated Oliver Ekman-Larsson helped turn the blue line from a question mark last year to a clear strength this year. In net, Sergei Bobrovsky is a Vezina Trophy finalist for the first time since 2017 (more on him in a minute).

Simply put, the Panthers don’t have any glaring flaws, which is why they’re one of the Cup favorites.

2. Will Linus Ullmark get a game?

Jeremy Swayman was lights-out against Toronto, going 4-2 with a .950 save percentage and 1.49 goals-against average. He was the best goalie in the league in the first round, and arguably the best player overall. He is as hot as a hot hand can possibly get.

He has also started five straight games for the first time in two years, and the Bruins get no extra day of rest before Game 1, or any other game in this series until a potential two-day break between Games 5 and 6 (if necessary). Swayman has never started six games in a row in his NHL career.

It at least raises the question: Will Linus Ullmark get one of the first two games down in Florida to give Swayman a breather? That would mirror the Bruins’ approach against Toronto, when Swayman and Ullmark split the first two games before Jim Montgomery and goalie coach Bob Essensa decided to ride Swayman.

Whereas Swayman was the dominant goalie against Toronto in the regular season, Ullmark was the one who took over against Florida. He went 3-0-0 against the Panthers this year with a .947 save percentage and 1.62 GAA. Swayman did win his only start against Florida, but gave up three goals on 21 shots (.857 save percentage).

Of course, Ullmark did not have the Panthers’ number in the playoffs last year. He was very good in the Bruins’ three wins, but he also gave up 15 goals in his three losses.

If it were up to me? Stick with Swayman until he gives you a reason not to, but be vigilant when it comes to any signs of fatigue.

3. Which Sergei Bobrovsky shows up?

On the other side of this goaltending battle is Bobrovsky, who, as we mentioned, is a Vezina finalist this season. Bobrovsky returned to true workhorse status this season for arguably the first time since signing his megadeal with Florida in 2019, starting 58 games (his most since 2018-19) and posting a .915 save percentage (his best since 2017-18).

But he did slow down a little down the stretch (.900 save percentage over his final 10 starts of the regular season), and he wasn’t great in the first round (.896 save percentage) despite going 4-1.

Bobrovsky has been inconsistent in the playoffs throughout his career, backing up his status as a two-time Vezina winner at times, but falling apart at others. Just take last year for example. He was only OK against the Bruins in the first round (.891 save percentage in four starts), then he was unbeatable in the second and third rounds against Toronto and Carolina (.954 in nine games), and then he stunk in the Stanley Cup Final (.844 in five games).

The Bruins’ best chance to win this series is by having the advantage in net, so they will certainly be hoping that Bad Bob shows up. Even if he does, however, we have to point out that Bobrovsky’s backup, Anthony Stolarz, had a very good season, going 16-7-2 with a .925 save percentage. That actually ranked first in the NHL among goalies who made at least 25 appearances this season.

4. Monitor the health of Sam Bennett

Bennett, the Panthers’ No. 2 center, missed the final three games of the first round after taking a shot off the hand and has already been ruled out for Game 1 against Boston. Florida coach Paul Maurice said he’s considered “day-to-day.”

Bruins fans don’t need to be reminded of the impact Bennett can make. After missing Game 1 last year, he had five points in six games and helped spark linemates Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe, including setting up Verhaeghe for the overtime winner in Game 7.

Anton Lundell moved up to center Tkachuk and Verhaeghe with Bennett out against Tampa Bay – and in fairness, that line was still great, if a little less physical. The bigger impact might be the trickle down, as Kevin Stenlund (15 points in 81 games) gets bumped up to third-line center, a role he’s not really suited for.

The Lightning weren’t deep enough to take advantage of that. The Bruins might be, so Bennett’s availability is once again a key storyline entering this rematch series.

5. How do the Bruins match up against Matthew Tkachuk?

There’s no way around it: Tkachuk torched the Bruins last spring. Five goals, six assists, a plus-5 rating, and plenty of agitation. It didn’t matter what line or defense pairing they threw out against him.

The Bruins kept Tkachuk a little quieter this regular season, holding him to two points and a minus-2 in four games. How they did it was interesting, though.

Usually Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo are Jim Montgomery’s go-to shutdown pairing, but they struggled with that assignment last postseason and this regular season. Tkachuk went head-to-head against the Lindholm-Carlo pairing for 19:01 at 5-on-5 this season, and the Panthers outshot the Bruins 17-1 and outscored them 1-0 during those minutes.

Charlie McAvoy did a better job, as the Bruins outshot the Panthers 10-5 and outscored them 2-1 during the 15:18 he went head-to-head with Tkachuk. In the teams’ final meeting of the regular season, the Bruins’ then-third pairing of Parker Wotherspoon and Andrew Peeke also stepped up to the plate, holding the Panthers without a high-danger chance during their 6:18 against Tkachuk’s line while also matching them hit-for-hit physically.

“I thought they [brought some attitude],” Montgomery said of Wotherspoon and Peeke after that game. “We purposely matched them up against Bennett and Tkachuk. They were physical. They were in their faces all night long. I think that's something that we're trying to build within our team as a whole group, is to be more in people's faces.”

Peeke, like Bennett, suffered a hand injury in Game 2 of the first round and missed the rest of the series. He was on the ice for morning skate Saturday and general manager Don Sweeney said on Sunday that he anticipates Peeke returning at some point in the second round. It’s unclear exactly when, but just based on that last meeting, it certainly seems like he could have a role to play in this series once he’s ready.