Homicides in San Francisco declined in the first quarter of 2024

The number of homicides in major American cities, including San Francisco, is falling after huge jumps during the pandemic.

Why it matters: The nation is on pace to see one of the most significant declines in violent crimes and homicides since President Obama was in office.

State of play: There were nine reported homicides in San Francisco during the first three months of 2024, compared to 13 in the same period in 2023, according to AH Datalytics, a criminal justice consulting firm.

• That's a 31% decrease.
• Most homicides in the city are driven by gun violence, San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) spokesperson Evan Sernoffsky told Axios.
• San Francisco had a total of 54 reported homicides in 2023.

What they're saying: The pandemic-era surge in homicides was the city's first "real increase in over 10 years in shootings and homicides," Sernoffsky said. "It had been precipitously declining for over a decade before that point."

• In 2022, the department launched its Violence Reduction Initiative with community partners to spearhead prevention efforts, which include implementing data-driven strategies to identify and provide resources — such as case management services — to individuals at the highest risk of engaging in or falling victim to violence.
• "We have a better buy-in from the community now than we have had in years," Sernoffsky added.

The big picture: The percentage of homicides in 204 cities declined by nearly 20% during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, per AH Datalytics.

• At this pace, the homicide rate in the U.S. could match its level in 2014, when many cities saw 30-year lows in violent crime and homicides.
• FBI data and numbers from police agencies show that crime has been steadily declining since the pandemic spike.
• AH Datalytics calculated its data using the latest available crime numbers from local and state sources.

Reality check: Some cities saw homicide increases in the first three months of 2024 compared to last year, including Los Angeles.

Between the lines: Polls show crime is a top concern ahead of the 2024 election.

Editor's note: The chart headlines have been corrected to note that it is a selection of major cities, not the most populous cities.

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