Who has the edge to win the Arizona high school softball state champions?

The Arizona high school softball playoffs for big schools get underway Saturday. These are often some of the most fun, unpredictable playoffs on the high school sports calendar, with a double-elimination format keeping things interesting throughout.

The Republic breaks down the big school tournaments:

6A Conference

The favorite: No. 1 Mesa Red Mountain

The contenders: No. 2 Chandler Basha, No. 3 Queen Creek, No. 4 Phoenix Xavier Prep, No. 6 Phoenix Desert Vista

The potential Cinderella: No. 15 Yuma Gila Ridge

Pitching is king in high school softball, so it’s no surprise to see the top three 6A teams all be led by some of the state’s best hurlers — especially in a bracket as wide open as this one.

Red Mountain’s Kendall Cochran has a 0.75 ERA, Basha’s Natalie Fritz has a 1.06, Queen Creek’s Jenae Berry has a 1.18 and Desert Vista’s Thailee Jones has a 1.22. All four of those are inside the top five marks in 6A.

It’s not just the pitching that makes these teams stand out, either. Taylor Hampton at Red Mountain has slugged 11 home runs and Basha’s Bragg sisters each have 12. Queen Creek lacks that type of power but has four players hitting .400. Desert Vista might be a tier below those top contenders offensively, but they’ve won eight straight games, with 10-plus runs in four of them.

Xavier Prep offers a slightly different profile. After a down year in 2023, the 2021 and 2022 state champions got it done with their offense this year. Senior Lauren Putz (.678 average, 17 home runs) is the best hitter in the state. The question here is whether Angie Falls — an uber-talented freshman who lacked the consistency of the state’s best upperclassmen pitchers — can shut down the state’s best offenses.

For a long shot with a chance of a run, look at No. 15 seed Gila Ridge. The Hawks barely slid into the playoffs and struggled when they played elite teams, but it’s hard to ignore junior Malina Peterson’s 0.39 ERA.

5A Conference

The favorite: No. 1 Scottsdale Desert Mountain

The contenders: No. 2 Scottsdale Chaparral, No. 3 Waddell Canyon View

The potential Cinderella: No. 14 Cave Creek Cactus Shadows

In contrast to the parity atop 6A, it’s hard to see anyone taking down Desert Mountain. Last year, the Wolves went 28-4 to win their first state title. This year, they’re 24-4.

Since a February loss to Phoenix Pinnacle, all three of Desert Mountain’s losses came on off days for ace Lilly Goodwin, who should be in the circle for every playoff game. Goodwin is an unhittable force, with a 0.20 ERA in her 13 appearances this year, striking out more than two batters per inning.

Desert Mountain’s offense might not be quite as explosive as the best teams in 6A, but Goodwin helps her own cause on that side of the ball too. She’s hitting .557 with three homers.

If anyone does take down the Wolves, look for it to be Canyon View, which is led by Emily Davis (1.05 ERA) or Chaparral, which is led by Lexie Wilson (1.13 ERA). No. 4 Willow Canyon — the 2021 and 2022 5A champions — beat Desert Mountain in March and will be dangerous this month. And although its pitching has struggled, No. 14 Cactus Shadows could win a game or two behind the power stroke of infielder Kira Day (13 home runs).

4A Conference

The favorite: No. 3 Tucson Canyon del Oro

The contenders: No. 1 Mesa Eastmark, No. 2 Phoenix Arcadia, No. 4 Tucson Salpointe Catholic

The potential Cinderella: No. 11 Sahuarita

For the first time in more than half a decade, Salpointe Catholic is not the clear favorite in 4A. That doesn’t mean the Lancers aren’t excellent, with three pitchers who have sub-1.00 ERAs. But some serious credit is due for Canyon del Oro, which went 3-0 against its crosstown rivals this year.

The Dorados are led by junior Amelia Streuber and her 0.57 ERA. In three starts against Salpointe Catholic, she allowed one earned run in 21 innings. And while Canyon del Oro doesn’t have any standout offensive stars, it does have a deep offense with no easy outs.

Up in the valley, Eastmark is also a legitimate contender, as its No. 1 seed would indicate. The Firebirds ace, Lexi Mendez, has a 0.86 ERA with an absurd strikeout rate.

No. 11 seed Sahuarita is also interesting, with a 25-5 record, albeit against a weaker schedule. The Mustangs have five players with at least five home runs, including senior Kealey Mhrye, who has 12.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Who has the edge to win the Arizona high school softball state champions?