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Thunder offseason primer: The ultimate buyers in a buyer’s market

By markdeeks,

14 days ago

In posting a 57-25 regular season record and winning the first seed in the Western Conference, the quality of the Oklahoma City Thunder was known to all. But in the playoffs, they showed they were still at least one year away.

With a loss in Game 6 of their second-round series in the 2024 NBA playoffs to the Dallas Mavericks , the Thunder’s season has ended earlier than they would like. But the good news is that their offseason now begins. And over the last few seasons, this has been where the franchise has done its best work.

Since dismantling the last days of the Russell Westbrook era, the Thunder have embarked on an unabashed strategy of asset accumulation , acquiring a historic level of future draft picks by utilizing their minimal financial commitments at a time of tremendous salary cap growth to leverage assets from other teams.

To have a team good enough for 57 wins and the best collection of assets for further reinforcements is a privileged position. And although coming up short this year is understandable, given the relative inexperience of the core, it is now time to convert all that into titles.

With this in mind, here follows a look at the Oklahoma City Thunder’s roster and spending heading into the 2024 NBA offseason.

State of the roster and offseason options

As well as a legitimate superstar in Shai, an enviable collection of young prospects such as Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams , and a famously enormous cache of draft capital collated from every other team, the Thunder have plenty of money to spend. Only Gilgeous-Alexander ( $35,859,950 ) and Luguentz Dort ($16,500,000) are set to earn a salary above the mid-level exception next season, and the Thunder achieve a lot of cost control via the rookie scale contracts afforded to Holmgren ($10,880,640), Williams ($4,775,760), Josh Giddey ($8,352,367), Ousmane Dieng ($5,027,040) and Cason Wallace ($5,555,920). Furthermore, there are no bad contracts. The only overhang from all the unwanted contracts of other teams acquired via trade will be a single $1,000,000 cap hit owed to Kevin Porter Jr ; beyond that, the dead salary of Rudy Gay , Aleksej Pokusevski , Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington all expire this summer. All told, the Thunder are in an almost-unique position of having both an All-Star short of his prime years, and near-maximum cap space to be able to target another. In what figures to be a slowed market due to the loading up of salaries around the league over the past couple of seasons, the Thunder are in the driving seat of all driving seats.

How the CBA affects them

An added benefit to all that salary cap freedom is the lack of punitive measures that will now bite other teams. The luxury tax and aprons are a million miles away, and their continued ability to take on excess salaries of those other teams now feeling the punitive effects on the second apron gives them even more leverage around the league. As explored in the Philadelphia 76ers offseason primer , expiring contracts do not automatically mean cap space – free agents continue to count against the cap unless expressly renounced (or until they sign with another NBA team), and any such renouncement removes their Bird rights. However, the only free agents on the Thunder's 2024 salary cap will be Gordon Hayward , Bismack Biyombo , Mike Muscala , Olivier Sarr and Keyontae Johnson . None of those Bird rights are required.

Free agent/extension candidate: Isaiah Joe

Team option: $2,164,993

A tenure that started with an October-time pick-up back in 2022 has reached a point where Joe is a playoff starter, and it is time he was paid accordingly. A sweet shooter at a time when shooting has never been so valuable, Joe appeared in 78 regular season games and recorded an 8.2 points per game average in them, hitting above 40 percent from three-point range for the second consecutive season. That gets a man paid, and while the Thunder will be grateful that the team option will allow them to keep him at the minimum salary price for one more season, they should perhaps also look to extend him before he hits free agency next summer, something they can do upon the two-year anniversary of his signing.

Free agent/extension candidate: Aaron Wiggins

Team option: $1,988,598

Wiggins' time with Oklahoma City has had a similar trajectory to that of Joe, having turned an initial two-way contract back in August 2021 into a role in a playoff rotation. He is one rung below Joe in the backcourt hierarchy, and has seen his playing time diminish since Joe's arrival, yet in his 78 regular season appearances,

Wiggins averaged 6.9 points per game of his own, doing so on a piping hot 49.2% three-point percentage. With one year less of experience, Wiggins would be eligible for restricted free agency if his team option was declined, while his full Bird rights and immediate eligibility for an extension all make it easier for the Thunder to keep him beyond this one option year. And as with Joe, because unrestricted free agency looms next summer, it may behove them to deal with the situation before it gets to that point.

Free agent: Gordon Hayward

Unrestricted free agent

The Thunder traded for Hayward's enormous contract at the deadline, knowing the days of hoping he would play up to it were long gone, yet they expected more than they got. In 26 regular season games, Hayward averaged only 5.3 points a contest, and in 46 minutes across the Thunder's first seven postseason games, he went completely scoreless. Had they known he would only do that, they could have just kept Davis Bertans . Hayward's best value to the Thunder going forward, and perhaps his only value going forward, is the salary cap space opened up by renouncing his near-$50 million cap hold. There exists a possibility for his contract to be used in sign-and-trades scenarios, and also perhaps the opportunity for him to return as a player. But both seem far less likely than just cutting the losses and renouncing him.

Extension candidate: Josh Giddey

Entering fourth year of rookie scale contract

Giddey's career trajectory has hit a rough patch. On the surface, averaging 12.3 points , 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists as a third-year player is an excellent start to a career, yet being removed from the starting line-up for the final two games of the series against the Mavericks speaks to his imperfections. A limited shooter and finisher, and a reluctant scorer altogether, the gravity of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may benefit The Thunder, then, have a choice. Given all the assets and flexibility mentioned above, they can - indeed, they must - be picky. Oklahoma City needs to identify not just good players, but the ideal players to pair alongside Shai, and construct a championship-winning team accordingly. And the first such decision is coming up with Giddey. They do not have to make that decision this offseason; they can allow Giddey to hit the free agency market in the summer of 2025, or extend him this summer with a view to trading him later. A complete commitment/resolution need not be immediate. Yet with all their flexibility to buy in a buyer's market, it might also be the best time to do it.

2024-25 SALARY SITUATION

Players rostered: 13, including three team options Two-way players : One (Adam Flagler) Guaranteed salaries: $6,350,561 Non-guaranteed salaries: $6,350,561 Total salary: $102,990,937 Projected 2024/25 salary cap amount: $141,000,000

Maximum s alary cap space: Approximately $42 million
Realistic salary cap space: Approximately $34 million

Projected 2024/25 luxury tax threshold: $171,345,000

Luxury tax space: Plentiful

Projected 2024/25 first apron threshold: $178,655,000

First apron space: Plentiful

Projected 2024/25 second apron threshold: $189,486,000

Second apron space: Extremely plentiful

Projected 2024/25 room exception: $8,006,000 Spending options, in the unlikely event they opt not to use cap space:

Non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, $12,859,000 (projected)
Bi-Annual Exception, $4,681,000 (projected)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl trade exception – $1,900,000 (expires October 17 2024)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2024-25 salary: $35,859,950 Remaining salary guaranteed: $114,999,150 through 2026-27 Additional notes:

Has a $17,222,222 team option for 2026-27.

Luguentz Dort

2024-25 salary: $16,500,000 Remaining salary guaranteed: $34,222,222 through 2025-26 Additional notes:

Has a $17,222,222 team option for 2026/27.

Chet Holmgren

2024-25 salary: $10,880,640 Remaining salary guaranteed: $10,880,640 through 2024-25 Additional notes:

Has a $13,731,368 team option for 2025-26.

Josh Giddey

2024-25 salary: $8,352,367 Remaining salary guaranteed: $8,352,367 through 2024-25 Additional notes:

Rookie scale extension eligible this offseason.

Kenrich Williams

2024-25 salary: $6,669,000 Remaining salary guaranteed: $13,832,000 through 2025-26 Additional notes:

Has a $7,163,000 team option for 2026-27.

Cason Wallace

2024-25 salary: $5,555,920 Remaining salary guaranteed: $5,555,920 through 2024-25 Additional notes:

Has a $5,820,487 team option for 2025-26.
Has a $7,421,121 team option for 2026-27.

Ousmane Dieng

2024-25 salary: $5,027,040 Remaining salary guaranteed: $5,027,040 through 2024-25 Additional notes:

Has a $6,670,882 team option for 2025-26.

Jalen Williams

2024-25 salary: $4,775,760 Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,775,760 through 2024-25 Additional notes:

Has a $6,580,997 team option for 2025-26.

Jaylin Williams

2024-25 salary: $2,019,699 (unguaranteed) Remaining salary guaranteed: None Additional notes:

Extension-eligible after July 19.
2024-25 salary is fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date.
Has a $2,187,699 team option for 2025-26.
Even with the team option, 2025-26 salary is fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date.

Adam Flagler

2024-25 salary: Signed to a two-way contract Remaining salary guaranteed: None

Lindy Waters III

2024-25 salary: $2,196,970 (team option) Remaining salary guaranteed: None Additional notes:

Can be made into a restricted free agent if the option is declined.

Isaiah Joe

2024-25 salary: $2,164,993 (team option) Remaining salary guaranteed: None Additional notes:

Even with the team option, 2024-25 salary is fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date.

Aaron Wiggins

2024-25 salary: $1,988,598 (team option) Remaining salary guaranteed: None Additional notes:

Extension-eligible immediately
Can be made into a restricted free agent if the option is declined.
Even with the team option, 2024-25 salary is fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date.

Gordon Hayward

Cap hold: $49,261,430 (* estimated amount, due to the exact maximum salary determination not being made until the July moratorium) Type of free agent: Full Bird (unrestricted) Additional notes:

Extension-eligible up to and including June 30
Maximum cap hold based on previous salary will be $49,979,095; if the league-wide maximum starting salary is higher than this amount, the $49,979,095 figure will be used instead

Bismack Biyombo

Cap hold: $2,093,637 Type of free agent: Non-Bird (unrestricted)