Sven Sundgaard: What can Minnesota expect from May's weather?

April was yet another month of above normal temperatures BUT there were some notable features that were different from the last several months:

1.) While above normal, it was ‘only’ by 2.2 degrees F at MSP. This was the least anomalous month since July when we were just 0.2 degrees F above normal. Is this a sign of the El Niño pattern winding down after ridiculously warm winter temperature anomalies?

It’s worth noting the temperature anomalies were greatest west and northwest. The Fargo-Moorhead area was more than 5 degrees above normal for the month of April.

2.) Unlike most of mid to late winter, it was WET, continuing the trend that began in mid-March. April precipitation was 43% more than normal. In western Minnesota the precipitation was more than double the normal value!

One measure of the warmth was the lack of real cold nights. Only one night was below freezing: we dipped to 31 degrees on the 20th. On average we see eight nights below freezing in April at MSP using the modern normal (1991-2020 average).

It was also a very windy month, but not record windy in terms of AVERAGE wind speed. Look for an article specific to April winds ahead. Last year and 2022 were both windier. In fact, April 2022 was the windiest in terms of average wind speeds.

Continuing the pattern into May?

There’s a bit of a consensus in the longer range models of more of the same for May. About half of the models have us near normal with some below and some above, making for perhaps a normal May?

As far as precipitation there’s a consensus that we remain on the wetter than normal side except for southwest Minnesota. Most of the models have that area drying out to below normal levels.

This is in line with the official Climate Prediction Center forecasts which calls for equal chances of above/below normal May temperatures and a slightly higher likelihood of above normal precipitation.

The question on everyone’s mind: “Will the rain just stop like the last few summers after wet springs?”

The models are pretty mixed on summer precipitation to the point where I’d say it’s anyone’s guess but given the trends of the last few years, until that pattern seems to finally be broken don’t count on a wet summer yet.

What the models seem to be pointing toward (still) is a hot summer. The NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensembles) point to 80% odds of warmer than normal summer average temperatures.