Don't get used to the recent sweater weather. Virginia will likely face a hotter-than-usual summer , according to new forecasts and scientific research.
Why it matters: Extreme heat is a major public health threat that puts vulnerable populations at risk and can further strain the power grid during prolonged heat waves.
The big picture: Heat waves are becoming more common and intense due to human-caused climate change. Everywhere in the mainland U.S. — except for North Dakota — is projected to be hotter than average from June to August, with varying odds.
- Virginia, for example, has a 40% to 50% chance. The odds increase to 60% to 70% further north.
- Winters are also getting warmer ; allergy season is longer , and the risk of flooding due to heavy rain is higher.
Zoom in: Virginia is already having one of its warmest recorded starts to a year, reports the Times-Dispatch's Sean Sublette .
- And Richmond has been averaging 48 days at or above 90°F this century compared to an average of 39 days in the 1900s.
Between the lines: Some Richmond neighborhoods will face even hotter temperatures because of the heat island effect , where fewer trees to cover pavements means the concrete absorbs and traps heat.
- This is often concentrated in lower-income neighborhoods that were further segregated by discriminatory housing laws in the 1930s known as redlining.
- Some of the hottest areas like Gilpin Court, a public housing community that was once redlined, can see temperatures up to 15°F hotter than wealthier parts of the city.
By the numbers: Richmond had 120 heat-related illness visits from May to September last year — the third-highest number in the state and the city's highest number recorded since 2015, according to Virginia Department of Health data .
What's next: The National Weather Service and the CDC are rolling out an experimental heat forecast tool that can give health guidance up to seven days in advance.
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