Thursday, April 25: Soggy at times with the possibility of severe through the weekend

** 10 PM UPDATE**

The threat of heavy rainfall has faded late this evening with pockets of heavier rain slowly exiting off to the northeast.

The break will be short-lived with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning by morning, continuing on and off through Friday afternoon. This will have an impact on temperatures, keeping highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. The result will be limited instability, but with the strong wind fields, spotty severe weather will remain possible. The risk would mainly be from late morning into the evening hours with any stronger storms capable of all modes of severe weather.

To the west, near and west of I-49, the day will be drier and a little sunnier. Temperatures will be warmer and instability levels will be running higher. There won’t by much to trigger storms, but any that develop could quickly become severe given the strong wind fields. All modes of severe weather would be possible with this activity as well. These storms will tend to be widely scattered at best in a line from north to south, gradually shifting east into Western Missouri during the evening.

The threat of storms across the area is expected to fade by late evening with most areas probably quiet after midnight.

Saturday will be a partly sunny, warm and humid day with gusty southerly winds. Much of the area will remain dry, and severe weather isn’t really expected during the day. Storms will organize west of the area by Saturday evening, but will only slowly edge east into Western Missouri during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. Severe weather is possible with these storms, but the storms will likely fade by sunrise. Additional shower and thunderstorms are expected later in the morning and afternoon, gradually shifting east. Storms will slowly exit Sunday evening. Like Friday, clouds and widespread showers and thunderstorms may limit the overall severe risk some. But, the strong wind fields will be capable of organizing any stronger storms.

The pattern should quiet down after the weekend with a relatively quiet stretch from Monday to Wednesday. Scattered storms should return on Thursday of next week.

**5 PM UPDATE**

Heavy rainfall has swept across the Ozarks causing major concerns and issues with flash flooding. As of this moment, Lawrence, Christian, and Greene County have taken the brunt of the force.

Radar has estimated in some localized pockets over 3-6″ has poured. Video from Mount Vernon captures the immense amount of flooding causing multiple stalled vehicles requiring water recuses.

Rain will continue to persist as the night carries on, however, the heaviest band of rainfall will switch. As the night progresses, rainfall will begin to creep to the north and will be mostly concentrated north of I-44.

Except for flash flooding, at this time we have no concerns of severe weather for this evening. Chances for severe weather start to ramp up for Friday.

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Hopefully, you found time to enjoy yesterday because today will be a washout. Scattered rain showers this morning has become more widespread and heavy for this afternoon.

A more organized complex of rain and thunderstorms will sweep through from northwest to southeast today providing the heavier rain. Some gusty winds and small hail are possible in this complex.

We may find a brief break from the rain this evening into tonight, but storms coming out of Kansas and Oklahoma will be in the area Friday morning. The severe weather risk is low with this round of morning rain and storms, but a storm may be able to become strong as we head later into the morning/day.

The morning round of storms will impact what we see on Friday afternoon. Isolated storms may be able to develop along a dryline in east Kansas and move into western Missouri. However, the atmosphere may not be able to fully recover in time to support severe weather in the afternoon/evening. A cap is also expected to develop later in the day on Friday.

Saturday looks pretty quiet with an increasing threat of storms later Saturday night working in from the west. These storms will slowly build east into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas by Sunday morning with the risk of severe weather gradually easing. The corridor of showers and thunderstorms will probably flare back up again later in the morning with a risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Heavy rainfall from Thursday through Sunday will lead to flooding concerns in spots. Some data suggests a zone of 3-5″ of rain is possible all said and done in west, southwest and southern Missouri into northern Arkansas.

Remain weather-aware for Friday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday. Keep in mind that each round will impact what happens with the next round of storms and this will be a tricky weekend to forecast.

In addition to the risk of severe weather, winds will be very gusty at times (topping 30 mph) Friday through Sunday.

Quieter weather will follow the weekend as we end the month of April.

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