Though the top of the ticket rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is certain to steal the show from now to November, it’s concurrent races for Congress that will play an outsized role in determining how much either could actually accomplish in a second term.
Along with the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the United States Senate will be on the ballot this year, including the seat that DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a popular incumbent who has typically run well ahead of other candidates on the DFL ticket, has held since 2006.
Local races for the U.S. House, meanwhile, could be hotly contested, including in the 2nd Congressional District, where Le Sueur County resides.
CD2 setup
Amid current political divisions, CD2 has come to be seen as Minnesota’s marquee swing district, given its mix of inner ring and outer ring suburbs, as well as rural areas.
The 2nd District covers the south metro and extends further southward, taking in Le Sueur County, the Lonsdale area and Northfield. While held by DFL Rep. Angie Craig of Prior Lake since 2018, it was Republican before then under Reps. John Kline and Jason Lewis.
Craig, who narrowly lost to Lewis in 2016 before beating him in a 2018 rematch, has faced close races every time she’s won. In 2020, the 2nd District was the exact tipping point for control of the House, with 217 districts voting more Republican and 217 more Democratic.
Given the 2nd District’s competitive nature and expectations of a “red wave” with President Biden’s low approval ratings and voter concerns about inflation and crime, Craig was thought to be in peril in 2022 when Republican Tyler Kistner, a Marine Corps Veteran, sought a rematch.
However, Craig and other DFLers were able to hold back the “red wave” in suburban areas by tying their Republican opponents to polarizing former President Trump and vowing to safeguard access to abortion after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade.
Running on a DFL ticket stacked with other incumbents, Craig was also able to make the most out of her incumbency and build up a comfortable fundraising advantage over Kistner, helping her to increase her margin of victory, though she still only won by about 5 points.
Craig’s re-election victory came on a night when Democrats seized full control of Minnesota state government for only the second time in 30 years and won many key swing state races, but narrowly lost the House amid poor performances in New York, Florida and California.
Retired Carleton College Professor Steven Schier said that the 2nd District is likely to be the most contested House race in November, but Craig’s formidable resources and proven electoral track record will be hard for a Republican challenger to overcome
“In Minnesota, there’s a real competitive mismatch between the two political parties — the Democrats have a lot more money, which allows them to have a much more formidable get out the vote operation,” Schier said. “It could be close, but the question is whether the Republicans have enough resources.”
The current House Republican majority is not only extremely narrow but dependent on several incumbents who narrowly won in blue states. In order to stay in the majority, Republicans might need to offset potential losses with gains in traditional swing seats they lost in 2022.
The 2nd District could fit the bill, and a poll released last week by KSTP and Survey USA provides the GOP with some hope. Though President Biden narrowly led President Trump in the poll, a “generic ballot test” showed voters trending towards Republican candidates.
Overall, 45% of poll respondents said they would generally prefer to support a Republican candidate while 44% would generally prefer a Democrat. Compared to a poll taken last month, Republicans made major gains among crucial suburban and Independent voters.
Local GOP leaders, like Le Sueur County Republicans Chair Jerry Lucas, say they’ve seen signs of growing support for their party. Lucas said that many voters are fed up with the direction of the country and believe things were better off under former President Trump.
“They can see a clear contrast,” Lucas said. “People know the way it was under the Trump Administration and how it is under this current administration. Everything that was going in the right direction is now going in the wrong direction.”
CD2 challengers
In a race still seen as a key swing seat by both parties, two Republican challengers are working hard to win the support of local Republican delegates for the opportunity to face Rep. Craig in the fall: attorney Tayler Rahm and former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab.
Both Rahm and Teirab have repeatedly pledged to respect the results of the endorsing convention, which will take place at the end of April. While neither has held or even run for political office before, Lucas said that both offer youthfulness, energy and robust resumes.
Rahm’s Campaign Manager Jill Vujovich-Laabs said that her candidate offers a versatile, diverse set of experiences and perspectives which fit the District well. Raised in the District by a single mom, Rahm worked his way through undergrad and secured his J.D. from William Mitchell College of Law in St. Paul.
Rahm is pitching himself as a conservative outsider, which Vujovich-Laabs said has helped him to build up support from many Republican delegates. The first Republican to enter the race, he quickly picked up the endorsement of former Rep. Jason Lewis.
However, Rahm is facing a strong challenger in Teirab, a Harvard Law School graduate, Marine Corps Veteran and former Assistant U.S. Attorney, who appears to be the favorite of the national GOP groups that will be crucial in overcoming Craig’s financial advantage in the fall.
While fundraising figures released in February show that both candidates have raised cash at a similar clip, Teirab’s campaign received much more support from national GOP groups and figures, including House Majority Whip Tom Emmer.
With less than two weeks to go to the endorsing convention, Rahm and Teirab participated in a candidate forum on April 15th held at Mercy Road Church in Burnsville, organized by Evangelical Pastors Dale Witherington, leader of the conservative christian organization Restore Minnesota, and Dan Hall, a former GOP State Senator.
Though both candidates expressed outspoken, unabashed conservative views to applause from a largely conservative Christian audience, Rahm positioned himself as a feisty conservative outsider, suggesting that many Republicans in Washington are insufficiently committed to conservative principles and have sought to undermine his campaign in favor of Teirab.
“I’m a constitutional conservative. I believe in the 10th Amendment and I believe in limited government,” Rahm said. “If we’re going to defeat the Democrat Party and make real change, we need a new generation of leadership in our own party.”
Rahm pushed back hard on suggestions that his outspoken conservative views may make him “electable” than Teirab, saying his deep roots in the south metro combined with his status as an unapologetic “outsider” leave him well positioned to relate to voters in the district.
“I wish it was just about issues, but it’s not,” Rahm said. “I’m proud to be a candidate who can relate to a lot of people who live and grew up here in CD2.”
Teirab took a somewhat different approach, with a focus on both his deep evangelical Christian faith and experience in the Marine Corps and as a federal prosecutor. Raised in a devout Christian family, Teirab said that his faith deepend in college, motivating him to pursue opportunities to serve his community and country.
Teirab was also particularly vocal and personal in expressing his strong opposition to abortion and strong support for “crisis pregnancy centers,” publicly funded clinics which encourage women to consider alternatives to abortion.
While some Democrats have accused crisis pregnancy centers of spreading misinformation, Teirab proudly sits on the board of New Life Family Services, a Twin Cities-based crisis pregnancy center which he credits with convincing his mother to go forward with her pregnancy despite facing significant adversity.
“I am only here today because of the work that God did through New Life Family Services and other crisis pregnancy centers,” Teirab said. “They are doing such important work and right now they are under attack from the left.”
Teirab also made sure to tout his experience as a Marine Corps veteran and federal prosecutor, saying that he has already built strong relationships with local law enforcement and that his ironclad support for police would both help him to defeat Craig and tackle crime once in office.
During a question and answer session, both candidates expressed similar, strongly conservative views on topics including gun rights, border security and election security, and promised to vigorously support the other candidate if they do not secure the endorsement.
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