Purdue’s season is over, and the last weekend didn’t go how I had hoped. We have already seen one opinion on where the program goes from here, so I thought I would look at the statistics and see how the trends look after three full seasons and what I think this says about the future of Purdue baseball.

5/18: FINAL—Nebraska 10, Purdue 5

W: Hawkins (4-0) L: Stephen (7-4)

The first six innings were quite even, but Nebraska dominated the last third of the game and took the series opener. The Cornhuskers had four straight batters reach base, and a sacrifice fly scored the first run of the game. While Purdue didn’t manage anything in the first inning, a two-out home run propelled the Boilermakers to a lead, although it barely lasted. The middle of the game was bereft of runs, but it wasn’t entirely due to pitching. Purdue had multiple opportunities with runners on second and third, but they couldn’t execute. Those runs would have been useful, because Purdue’s pitching folded in the last third of the game. Nebraska got three runs in the seventh inning, four more in the eighth, and another in the ninth. Purdue added a few runs of their own in those innings, but it was not enough. CJ Valdez had a massive game for the Boilermakers, managing three hits, including a home run, two runs, and three runs batted in. Mike Bolton Jr, Couper Cornblum, and Paul Toetz all had multiple hits and a run scored.

5/19: FINAL—Purdue 7, Nebraska 3

W: Iwinski (3-5) L: Walsh (3-3)

In a must-win game for the Boilermakers, they did consistent damage throughout the middle innings and used strong pitching down the stretch to even the series. The start of the game would make you think that Purdue really didn’t need the game that much, since the pitching was struggling a bit in the early innings and the offense was sluggish. However, things roared to life with a home run to start the fourth inning, and Purdue added another run later in the inning. The production kept churning with two more runs in the fifth and three more in the sixth due to a home run, a couple of singles, and a wild pitch. Meanwhile, the Purdue pitching shut down Nebraska to make sure that the lead would hold up. Sadly, Michigan State defeated Indiana for the second game in a row and clinched the final spot in the Big Ten Tournament. Aaron Suval locked down the Cornhusker bats late in the game, holding Nebraska to two hits, one walk, and no runs in over two innings of work while striking out six. Jake Jarvis and Connor Caskenette drilled a solo home run and a two-run home run respectively, and both players scored two runs.

5/20: FINAL—Nebraska 6, Purdue 4

W: Bunz (1-0) L: Blackwell (5-6) SV: Perry (3)

There were certainly places where the players made mistakes, but I would argue that coaching played a major role Purdue lost this game. After a quiet first couple of innings, the Cornhuskers got an early walk and moved the runner home without needing major hits. The bottom of the third looked uneventful early on, and then the Nebraska shortstop booted a ground ball that would have been the third out, and then the Nebraska starter just couldn’t find the plate. All of this led to three Boilermaker runs, but the lead would not last. A two-out home run on a full count tied the game at three in the fourth inning, and then things got quiet for a little while. One main blunder came in the fifth inning when Jake Parr either decided to or was ordered to try for second on a wild pitch. The catcher recovered nicely and threw him out with relative ease. Had he waited, he probably would have scored on the Paul Toetz double that transpired shortly afterward. Nebraska added a couple of runs in the sixth and seventh while Purdue couldn’t crack the Cornhusker relievers, but there was another good opportunity in the eighth where I’m not sure why Coach Goff made the moves that he did. Leaving in a senior in the last game of the season versus switching him out for a different player that you hope gives you better odds of winning is a complicated subject that I’m not going to dig deep into. However, with a runner on second base and the top of the lineup not far away, I don’t understand why you leave in the senior batting about .050 but substitute out the senior hitting over .300. Maybe there’s something that I’m missing, but that seems unthinkable. Anyway, that opportunity was lost, and while Purdue tried a rally in the ninth partially thanks to another Nebraska error, it didn’t go far enough. Although he was certainly helped by a nifty barehanded double play from Evan Albrecht, Jackson Dannelley had a nice outing in his own right. He held Nebraska to one hit, one walk, and one unearned run in almost three innings of work. In the batter’s box, Paul Toetz had a three-hit day and added an RBI, while CJ Valdez smacked two hits and scored twice.

Final Thoughts:

In the comment section of my last column, I stated that I was unhappy with the direction that Purdue baseball has taken over past head coach’s tenure. After thinking about things, I wondered if I was totally fair. I would not say that 2020 is a good data point, since that was very much Coach Wasikowski’s team and the season never finished for outside reasons. For the other three seasons, Purdue’s Big Ten record has improved every year, so that is a key step in the right direction. Still, I wanted some more information on where Purdue is going, so here are some more stats:

HITTING:

PITCHING:

It should be noted that the wRAA number that I got came from adding each individual player’s wRAA, so this number is directly comparable to a team of completely average D1 baseball players. The 2021 to 2022 offensive change is heartening to see, but I wonder how much of that was due to coaching and how much of that is due to replacing a full Big Ten schedule with a squishy soft nonconference schedule. I know there was quite a bit of transition for the pitching staff in 2022, but it’s weird that they got worse against an easier schedule. The 2022 to 2023 change was kind of jarring, since I fully expected the hitting to get better over that season and the pitching to get worse, but the exact opposite happened. There are some positive trends to look at, such as consistent rises in stolen bases and stolen base percentage and a consistent fall in OBP allowed. Still, it is disappointing that the Boilermakers couldn’t make it back to the Big Ten Tournament, and going 3-7 in midweek games, all of which came against mid-major opponents, is sorely disappointing and probably somewhat damaging to recruiting.

As for next season, all of the starting pitchers and many key relievers are expected to return, but there will be considerable turnover within the batting lineup. Given previous results, I am sure that the coaching staff will take transfers from junior colleges and possibly some D-I schools with the promise of playing time on a Big Ten team. When you look at how the hitting fell off last season, it may not be the worst thing to get some fresh faces. Hopefully the pitchers will continue to improve and avoid the same fate that befell the offense last season. My opinion of Coach Goff’s ability to fix this issue is somewhat dented, but I’m not willing to write him off just yet. There is plenty of room for improvement next season, so hopefully Coach Goff and the team will take that opportunity and jump firmly into the top half of the conference next season.