Nearly 40 million likely to die by 2050 from antimicrobially resistant infections

More than 39 million people worldwide could die over the next 50 years due to infections that are resistant to medications , according to a new study published Monday in the scientific journal The Lancet.

Scientists predict that, at current trends, the rate of lives lost due to antimicrobial resistance could increase by nearly 70% by 2050.

Antimicrobial resistance is when pathogens such as bacteria and fungi evolve to become able to evade medications used to kill them.

The World Health Organization says that antimicrobial resistance is "one of the top global public health and development threats" due to the misuse and overuse of antimicrobial medications in humans, plants, and animals.

Researchers from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that deaths from antimicrobial resistance between 1990 and 2021 fell by more than 50% among children younger than 5, but they increased by more than 80% among adults over the age of 70.

Lead researcher Chris Murray, the director of the IHME, told CNN that the downward trend in youth mortality due to antimicrobial resistance is likely caused by improved water sanitation, vaccination programs, and treatment programs in the developing world.

But older adults can be more susceptible to severe infections. With the overall world population aging, researchers expect a spike in the antimicrobial resistance death toll.

The authors of the study estimated that 1.27 million deaths in 2019 were directly caused by pathogens that had antimicrobial resistance. Antimicrobial resistance contributed to the deaths of nearly 5 million more people, meaning that it likely exacerbated a different condition.

Using statistical modeling, the authors estimate that, in 2050, the number of global deaths directly caused by antimicrobial resistance could reach as high as 1.9 million, and the number of deaths in which it is a contributing factor could reach 8.2 million.

The numbers suggest the regions most affected by antimicrobial resistance will be in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa — areas where access to supportive healthcare with basic resources such as oxygen is scarce.

The researchers also modeled two different scenarios that could lead to improved conditions: one in which healthcare access is improved worldwide and one in which more potent drugs are developed to combat superbugs that have antimicrobial resistance.

As many as 92 million cumulative deaths could be averted in the next 50 years, according to researchers, with improved healthcare systems in the developing world. With new drugs, 11 million cumulative deaths could be avoided by 2050.