This summer, temperatures will be near to slightly above average, but we may have to wait until the end of June for our first heat wave.

Here is the temperature outlook for each of the summer months. The average high temperatures for the month of June range from 81 to 89 degrees. Both July and August may see temperatures above average. There is currently a 50% to 60% chance that temperatures will be above the average of 86 degrees to 90 degrees.

A big factor in this summer's weather will be El Niño. This is the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that have effects that are felt around the globe. From droughts in regions like Indonesia and The Philippines to flooding in areas like California and Peru. Some of the world's worst floods and droughts have occurred during El Niño years.

Locally around the DMV, we typically see warmer and drier weather during El Niño years. So far in 2023, we've only experienced one 90-degree day (at the official Reagan National weather station), and it was about two weeks later than the average first 90-degree day of May 16th. In an average year, we typically see about 40 90+ degree days. With no big heat waves in the forecast, it's likely we won't see several 90-degree days in a row until at least late June or early July.

We have spotty showers at best coming our way over the next 10 days. It's moderately to abnormally dry across the area with a 6-inch rainfall deficit. June through September are the wettest months of the year in Washington, on average.

But a unique weather pattern called an "omega block" has been dominating our weather since late April, limiting our rainfall.

With no immediate signs of this weather pattern changing, we can expect much of the same dry and mild weather until it finally breaks down.