Gonzaga vs. UConn NCAA Tournament prediction: Bulldogs can't afford another slow start

Gonzaga’s first three NCAA Tournament wins haven’t come easy, but its next opponent might pose the toughest challenge yet.

“UConn is playing better than anybody in the tournament right now,” said Zags head coach Mark Few of the fourth-seeded Huskies, who play the third-seeded Zags on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The two programs have taken much different paths to the Elite Eight, with Gonzaga defeating its opponents by an average margin of six points and UConn winning by a difference of 20.7. But regardless of how either team reached this point, anything is possible in March, and this year’s tournament proves no exception.

Gonzaga’s victory on Thursday exemplified the event's unpredictable nature, as they defeated second-seeded UCLA on a go-ahead 3-pointer from Julian Strawther with six seconds remaining. It was a thrilling showdown in which Gonzaga rallied back from a 13-point halftime deficit.

UConn, on the other hand, demolished Arkansas in a game that was decided long before the final buzzer. The Huskies had the lead for all but one minute and 25 seconds.

The success of UConn has been orchestrated by the play of Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins, who combined for 42 points against the Razorbacks.

Sanogo, a 6-foot-9, 245-pound forward, has been a force in the paint for the Huskies. He’s averaging a team-high 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

“He’s a hell of a player,” Drew Timme said of Sanogo. “He gets a lot of his misses back which I think is an underrated part of his game. And he presents a lot of challenges and he's a smart player. So it’s gonna be a handful for sure.”

Hawkins is UConn’s primary threat to score from beyond the 3-point arc where he shoots 37.7% on 7.6 attempts per game. The 6-foot-5 guard led the Huskies with 24 points on Thursday.

“I think he’s probably the best jump shooter in college basketball, especially what he’s able to do with off-ball screens, pin downs, flares and actions like that,” Few said of Hawkins.

Defending Sanogo and Hawkins will test the limits of Gonzaga’s defense, which ranks 73rd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (99.3) The Zags have allowed two of their last three opponents to build double-digit leads.

When Gonzaga defends at a high level, it doesn’t take long for the team to create separation and pull away in most games. That’s what happened against UCLA, which went more than 11 minutes in the second half on Thursday without a field goal. The Zags capitalized by going on a 20-4 run that put them ahead by six points with just over one minute remaining.

However, Gonzaga’s inconsistencies don’t carry over to the offensive end where it averages a nation-best 87.0 points per game. Drew Timme is the team’s top contributor with 21.5 points per game on 62.3% shooting from the field.

Timme had 36 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and two blocks against UCLA, becoming the first player in history to score at least 20 points in 10 separate NCAA Tournament games.

He anticipates a physical contest on Saturday, believing that it will take a group effort to overcome UConn’s toughness.

“I think it’s gonna be a battle and we’re gonna have to play hard and gritty and we’re gonna have to get dirty and nasty and do whatever it takes to win,” Timme said.

The Huskies rank third in adjusted offensive efficiency (120.9) and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.1), making them one of the most well-rounded teams left in the tournament.

For this reason, Gonzaga will finally face a deficit it can’t climb its way out of.

The Pick: UConn 78, Gonzaga 75