ERCOT issues power use warning

ERCOT Weather WatchPhoto byERCOT

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has issued a request for consumers to reduce electric use during high peak periods for January 15 - 17, eliciting memories and fears of a repeat of the situation of February 2021.

With outlets such as The Weather Channel forecasting temperatures as far south as the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex to reach single digits, ERCOT is also forecasting higher electrical demand and a potential for less electricity to be available in “reserves.”

ERCOT manages the flow of electricity to about 90 percent of electric customers in Texas. It is responsible for scheduling how electricity travels throughout the state on the electric grid to reach customers of all types. Subject to the Public Utility Commission and the Texas Legislature, ERCOT is also responsible for ensuring that wholesale electric providers are paid and for ensuring smooth transfers of electric billing for customers.

Using seven methods, ERCOT develops a “baseline” of energy use throughout the state as well as in localized areas. Through an array of scientific and mathematical formulas, ERCOT then develops anticipated usage levels and makes sure that electricity is routed appropriately. In doing, so, ERCOT also requests that providers generate additional electricity to be held in reserve for possible usage spikes.

With a comparatively mild month, January 2023 did not provide the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex with below-freezing temperatures until late in the month, with only four days having lows of that magnitude: January 26, 29-31. Through that month, ERCOT saw usage during peak hours total approximately three-fourths that of the all-time high, which occurred in August 2023 (65,632 MW compared to 85,508 MW).

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates that a typical Texas home uses about 4 MW of energy in a year, or about 0.011 MW per day (10,958.9 kW per day). As ERCOT anticipates that the coming week will see an increase well above this average, it requested in October 2023 an increase of 3,000 MW for the period of December 1, 2023, through February 29, 2024, to ensure that electricity is available.

Frozen Water Stone in Home GardenPhoto byDeposit Photos

The current weather forecast provides that the temperatures are expected to dip even lower than those of January 2023 and possibly for a longer period.

Even with the increased reserves requested in October, ERCOT is concerned that, while no “energy emergency” is currently expected, one could occur if the weather sours beyond predictions much as it did in February 2021.

Temperatures are predicted to begin falling on Thursday, with the extremes expected to start on Sunday. Even though little, if any, precipitation is predicted, winds are estimated to be above 10 mph through January 22. These winds will cause conditions to feel colder than the thermometer will indicate. This will lead to an increase as heating sources will need to be used more to provide comfort against the elements.

So that they can proactively monitor the state’s usage and reserves, ERCOT recommends that customers sign up to receive grid condition notifications through the Texas Advisory and Notification System (TXANS). ERCOT also provides real-time and predicted grid conditions on its website. It also advises that ERCOT Emergency Alerts can be received via an email subscription and that the ERCOT mobile application will provide additional notifications (iOS | Android).

The TXANS website also provides energy-saving tips to help customers reduce usage and lower demand on the grid during this period.