In a women’s bantamweight bout on the main card, Holly Holm and Yana Santos meet at UFC on ESPN 43 at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 43: Holm vs. Santos odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The fights are on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET. The main card, also on ESPN/ESPN+, begin at 7 p.m. ET.
Holm looks to avenge a split-decision loss against Ketlen Vieira last time out in the main even on May 21, 2022. Since her stunning KO/TKO of Ronda Rousey at UFC 193, “The Preacher’s Daughter” has been rather ordinary. She is just 4-6 in the past 10 fights, and she has just 1 finish June 17, 2017, against Bethe Correia.
Santos is also looking to rebound after a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Irene Aldana on the UFC 264 card July 10, 2021. She hasn’t fought in nearly 2 full calendar years, 20 months to be exact, to give birth to a baby with husband Thiago Santos. It’s the 2nd time in her career she pressed the pause button for the birth of a child.
The southpaw Holm holds a 1-inch reach advantage, and 2-inch height advantage, while Santos has a 4.28-to-3.24 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. In addition, Santos is much more accurate at 72.04% on her significant strikes, as opposed to Holm at 48.44%.
Santos can also wow the judges with her takedown ability, posting a 1.53 takedown average, while managing a 53.33% takedown average accuracy percentage.
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UFC on ESPN 43: Holm vs. Santos odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Holm -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Santos +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -290 | Under +220)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -230 | No +155)
UFC on ESPN 43: Holm vs. Santos picks and predictions
Records: Holm (14-6-0) | Santos (14-6-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The veteran Holm (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive, especially for a bout between 2 fighters with identical records.
I do like Holm to get the victory, though, as it’s difficult for a fighter to come back from such a long layoff like Santos (+200) is doing. There is concern about cardio and stamina, especially against an active fighter like Holm.
I don’t think we’ll see a knockout in this one, and it’s likely HOLM ON POINTS (-118) is the most likely outcome.
Over/Under (O/U)
There is no value playing Yes (-230): Fight to go the distance, as you must risk nearly 2 1/2 times your potential return. In addition, Over 2.5 Rounds (-290) is a no-go, too.
PASS, and just stick to the method of victory play.
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