Where the midterms are still going

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday.

Miami-Dade County’s elections office spent Monday processing ballots for Florida’s 27th District as it faced a too-close-to-call race under a recount.

The circumstances mark a stunning turnaround for GOP Rep. MARÍA ELVÍRA SALAZAR, who won her 2024 reelection by nearly 20 points but found herself in the middle of voter outrage against President DONALD TRUMP’s mass deportation agenda this cycle. Though Salazar spoke out against Trump’s immigration policies in a direct-to-TV ad, she still faced voter backlash that made the race exceptionally tight with former CBS News anchor ELIOTT RODRIGUEZ.

A federal judge denied an effort by Rodriguez to have elections supervisor ALINA GARCIA, a former GOP state representative, recuse herself from the recount. The judge, DAVID LEIBOWITZ, reprimanded Garcia for comments she made on Election Night, reportedly saying that Salazar won the election “with or without a recount,” per the Miami Herald’s Antonio María Delgado. He said, however, that he didn’t want to remove her from her duties without the full context. Garcia’s son-in-law is also one of Salazar’s attorneys.

Rodriguezalerted supporters to the recount in an email. “Every person who voted in this race deserves to have their voice heard, and the public must have absolute confidence in the integrity of the result,” Rodriguez wrote, asking donors for help to cover legal fees and support staff who were monitoring the recount.

Trump mused to CBS’ “60 Minutes” after last week’s results that his immigration policies may have hurt Republican candidates for Congress and statewide office. A week ago, speaking outside a voting site in Key Biscayne, Salazar maintained that her conversations with Trump and GOP House leadership about the issue had allowed them to “disagree and remain friends.”

“The Republican Party is a very democratic party because after I spoke to the president and I said what I said in that commercial — leadership, including the president, never told me anything that was evil or that was bad, and never never forced me to do anything,” she said, arguing Democrats operated differently toward dissent.

She additionally split with her colleagues on health care. Florida’s 27th District was hard hit by the expiration of pandemic-era Obamacare subsidies that Republicans wouldn’t fund, which disproportionately hit middle-income people through higher premiums that are set to go up even more next year.

House races were also tight for Republican former Fox 35 Orlando anchor RYAN ELIJAH and Democratic Rep. DARREN SOTO. County elections websites show the results reached a margin that wouldn’t necessitate a recount and submitted unofficial ballot results to the state — and Elijah was in Washington for orientation — though as of this morning the races haven’t been called by The Associated Press. The race in Florida’s 26th District was finally called for GOP Rep. MARIO DÍAZ-BALART by The AP on Monday night. (Here’s an explainer of how the news service calls elections.)

The number of close House races shows just how much voter sentiment in Florida shifted with the rest of the country in the 2026 midterms, despite the GOP ultimately hanging on in statewide offices. Republicans were unsuccessful in flipping House seats after the redraw, though Democrats also weren’t able to topple incumbents — sending a similar number of representatives to Washington this Congress as the last one.

Over in the state House, another contest requires a recount in Brevard County, between Democrat DANIEL MCDOW — a former West Melbourne city councilmember — and Republican state Rep. MONIQUE MILLER. Either recount will need to be done by hand if it results in a margin of 0.25% or less.

Should McDow prevail, he could add even more to the inroads Democrats were able to make in the state House, among the clearest bright spots for the party on Election Day in the Sunshine State.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

POST MORTEM —EUNIC EPSTEIN-ORTIZ, the campaign manager for Democratic state Rep. ANGIE NIXON’s unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate, is out with her reflections on Substack about the election as the progressive came within less than three points — or roughly 238,000 votes — of defeating GOP Sen. ASHLEY MOODY.

Epstein-Ortiz warned that coming out of the race thinking more “moderate” campaigns need to be run in Florida is the wrong takeaway — instead saying their campaign showed what happened when a candidate with the a message of “lowering costs, fighting corruption and delivering for working people” didn’t have enough resources to “reach every community we needed to reach.” She also raised the fact that few Black candidates were among those prioritized for national resources.

Epstein-Ortiz writes that, when Nixon was considering running in January 2025, she told her team that she would still consider it a win if her organizing methods helped flip down-ballot races. It did: Her campaign stops featured down-ballot candidates, and Democrats made inroads in the state Legislature, breaking the supermajority.

“These are not small victories,” Epstein-Ortiz wrote. “These are changes in who holds power, who makes decisions, and who gets a seat at the table.”

Moody ran a cautious campaign but had the backing of Gov. RON DESANTIS and Trump and received slightly more votes cast in her favor than other statewide candidates. She told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade on a “Breakfast with Friends” program that the race had been close because “the people here in Florida want accountability from their government.”

Pressed about whether she agreed with Trump’s comments on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that some voter backlash may have come as a result of immigration enforcement measures having gone too far, Moody pointed to how Florida has local law enforcement sign on to help with immigration enforcement — a move that intensified the crackdown.

“I went after the Biden administration as AG and said, ‘You cannot stop our sheriffs from arresting people and then saying you won't deport them when they're hurting our citizens,’” she said. “And so I thought that should have been our highest priority.”

— “Donalds: GOP must campaign on new healthcare policy in 2028,” by Ryan Mancini of The Hill.

— “Democrats ended the GOP supermajority in the Florida House. What’s next?”by Silas Morgan of the Orlando Sentinel.

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

TODAY — News Service of Florida is hosting its Aging Summit in Tallahassee. (View the agenda.)

DONALDS ERA TAKES SHAPE — Gov.-elect BYRON DONALDS on Monday tapped MANNY KADRE as chair of his transition. Kadre is CEO of the luxury retail company Kollective Auto Group, chairs the University of Miami Board of Trustees and is on the board of directors of Home Depot.

Donalds also named RYAN SMITH, who directed his campaign and ran his political committee, as executive director of the transition. Smith, who works at Rapid Loop Companies, was a business partner with JAMES BLAIR, a political adviser and former Trump’s deputy chief of staff.

Donalds appointed TARREN BRAGDON as policy chair and TERESA RESSEL as senior adviser. Bragdon is the chief executive officer for the Foundation for Government Accountability, an influential national think tank that started in Florida and makes recommendations about conservative policies. Ressel was assistant secretary for management and CFO at the Treasury Department during President GEORGE W. BUSH’s administration, and her current role is as managing partner at the investment firm Radiate Capital.

LEADERSHIP TEAM — House Speaker-designate SAM GARRISON on Monday released names for his leadership team: state Reps. ADAM BOTANA for Rules & Calendar Committee chair; DEMI BUSATTA for speaker pro tempore and Health and Human Services Committee chair; JENNIFER CANADY for Policy and Strategy Committee chair; TRACI KOSTER for Appropriations Committee chair; RANDY MAGGARD for majority leader; FIONA MCFARLAND for Education and Employment Committee chair; MIKE REDONDO for Health Care Appropriations Subcommittee chair; JASON SHOAF for Commerce Committee chair; JOHN SNYDER for State Affairs Committee chair; and KAYLEE TUCK for Judiciary Committee chair.

DATA CENTER FUTURE — Many voters nationwide flat-out rejected data centers — and candidates who were linked to them — during last week’s midterm elections. But in Florida, the industry got its wish.

Donalds, a pro-business Trump ally whose campaign was flush with millions from the data center and tech industries, narrowly won the election for Florida governor over Democrat David Jolly, a staunch data center opponent. Donalds’ win was one of the GOP’s few major victories of the night, as Democrats took control of Congress and ousted Republicans in red-leaning states.

After last week’s wipeout, Florida is the most populous Republican-led state — and one still without a hyperscale data center, despite the industry’s efforts. Yet while Donalds has supported certain restrictions on data centers, he hasn’t gone as far as governors-elect in other states and has not been as hard line an opponent as outgoing DeSantis. His victory could change the data center industry’s views about the Sunshine State’s viability, just as other states are pumping the brakes on development.

— Kylie Williams

— “Hurricane Isaias claims keep climbing,” reports Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.

— “Florida’s Amendment 3 could cost schools their police officers, districts warn,” by Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel.

— “Number of plaintiffs in vaccine rule challenge grows by two,”by Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.

— “Florida woman’s death from this mosquito-borne disease raises alarms,”by Anemona Hartocollis of The New York Times.

DATELINE D.C.

PRIORITY LIST — Moody in a post on X this week is pushing her chamber to stay at work without any breaks or holidays through the end of the year before the new Democratic-majority Senate is sworn in.

“This is not the time to throw our hands up and accept defeat,” she said. “We still have the majority, and we need to act like it.”

During the Fox New interview, Moody also highlighted issues she thought the Senate should work on through the end of the year, including confirming judges, addressing permitting reform and passing the Ratepayer Protection Act — a bipartisan measure that passed the House before the election but that Democrats in the Senate said didn’t go far enough in protecting consumers from paying higher energy bills tied to data centers.

Moody did not say whether she backed Sen. JOHN THUNE of South Dakota as minority leader as senators are set to hold a forum to decide on GOP leaders today. GOP Sen. RICK SCOTT, who has said he wants to delay the leadership elections until the caucus comes up with a plan to respond to the “awful” election results for Republicans, echoed Moody’s call to stay in Washington and power through the agenda in the remaining weeks of the year. Among his priorities are passing the National Defense Authorization Act and the SAVE America Act, as well as banning members of Congress from trading stocks (Scott himself disclosed holding between $1 million and $5 million in shares of biotech supplies company Standard BioTools Inc., per his annual financial disclosure).

MOVING AHEAD — The Senate voted Monday night to advance a bipartisan permitting reform bill, an important step toward passage of the package, reported POLITICO’s Nico Portuondo.

Nearly all Senate Republicans and more than a dozen Democrats voted 73-25 to proceed to consideration of the deal, which would streamline the approval of data centers, transmission lines and energy projects. Among those who voted to advance the bill was Scott, though he said in a statement that “a critical provision” had been left out of the bill that impacts Florida.

According to a source familiar with the negotiations, granted anonymity to relay internal deliberations, Scott was referring to a provision that would put the state in charge of issuing federal wetlands and waterways permits, known as Section 404 permits — a responsibility currently handled by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

While he voted to move the legislation forward, Scott said he wanted his colleagues in exchange to vote on an amendment that would address the issue.

“Permitting reform is very important in lowering costs for American families and creating more jobs,” he said. “We need to get it right.”

THIS WEEK — Rep. Thomas Massie filed articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday, forcing a vote on his future as soon as this week amid lawmakers’ increasing demands for his ouster.

The Kentucky Republican’s articles accuse Hegseth of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” including illegally launching the Iran war and killing hundreds of civilians in boat strikes against alleged drug-smugglers in the Caribbean.

— POLITICO’s Mark Satter

— “Massie suggests DeSantis as war secretary if Hegseth ousted in impeachment push,” reports Claire Carter of the Washington Examiner.

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

TODAY — Immigration organizations are gathering outside the Freedom Tower at 11 a.m. for a protest to demand an end to local police agreements with federal law enforcement.

— “Rubio backs U.N.-authorized Gang force in Haiti. ‘There’s No plan B,’” by Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald.

— “Environmentalists leery of plan to blast, pump and mine area south of Lake O,” by Florida Trib’s Nicolás Rivero.

— “Millions in unbudgeted taxpayer incentives weigh on downtown Jacksonville Publix subsidy,” by Florida Trib’s Molly Farrar.

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

GROWING GAETZES — Former GOP Rep. MATT GAETZ, anchor at One America News Network, and his wife GINGER GAETZ are expecting their second baby, a boy, the couple announced over X.

BIRTHDAYS: Ballard Partners’ Justin Sayfie … Mark Herron, attorney with Messer Caparello, P.A. ... Alan Gomez, media relations and communications manager at Greenberg Traurig ... Carlos Becerra, associate vice president of government and community affairs for Florida International University … (was Monday) state Rep. Chase Tramont.