Q&A: Previewing Opening Day with Pirates insider Andrew Destin

PITTSBURGH, Pa. (WTAJ) — Opening Day is less than 24 hours away and the Pirates are set to hit the road to take on the Marlins to open up the season. After seeing a 14 game win improvement from 2022 the Pirates appear ready to take that next step towards contending. Ryan Risky sat down with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Pirates insider Andrew Destin to preview the season.

QUESTION: Are the Pirates back this year?

ANSWER: “That’s a good question. I’m going to say they’re close. They’re probably a year away. The biggest question is the rotation. You look at Paul Skenes, he’s down there at Triple A. He’s one of the more ready big league arms that they have in terms of the prospect pool. I like a lot of the guys that are probably going to start in Altoona. I like Anthony Solemento and Bubba Chandler, but the rotation is the biggest question mark to me. Martin Perez looked solid in spring training. Marco Gonzales is a guy that probably left something to be desired in terms of the spring training results. Bailey falters or five starter. I’m not sure how confident you can really be about that. There’s a lot to like in terms of the hitting and in terms of the defense with guys coming back like Oneil Cruz. Henry Davis is a big question with what can he do defensively, but in terms of the pitching the rotation is a big big question mark for me and I think it’s going to be the make or break of the season.”

Q: Do you think they should have brought try to bring in more veteran arms because as you said Paul Skenes is pretty close to MLB . Jared Jones looked good and then they’ve got still got some guys in Altoona that are probably not going to be ready until a closer to the end of the season.

A: “Yeah, I think that’s exactly it. And I think that’s probably a reason that they weren’t able to attract some of those bigger name guys. Obviously, we know the Pirates are a bit of a small market team when it comes to spending. That’s pretty well-documented. But I have to wonder, in terms of attracting free agents, did that play a role in terms of getting guys to commit here longer term? The reality that you’ve got a lot of prospects that are knocking on the door that these guys, hey, you don’t perform to expectation or perform to your abilities, that you might get moved to the bullpen in favor of some of these younger guys. So. Absolutely. I completely agree. They should have gone out and gotten more veteran guys, but you have to wonder if they tried and they just couldn’t convince guys because you couldn’t guarantee them 32 starts. I think you were able to bring in guys like Gonzales because they’re a little bit more reclamation project ex guys who had down seasons in 2023. That’s why they were willing to come here in one year fliers.”

“But there aren’t many guys like that. People want that long term sustainability comfort, knowing that they can be in a place and they can be guaranteed a number of starts. I don’t know that the Pirates could do that, and it’s not necessarily a bad problem to have. It means you’ve got a solid minor league system. It just they couldn’t guarantee those two starts, I got to believe.”

Q: Where to you think the Pirates are on Opening Day 2024 versus where they were in 2023?”

A: “I think they’re in a better spot for sure. There’s a number of places you can go to. I think the number one thing to me is just that you’ve made financial commitments to your three cornerstones and something that I wrote about for the Post-Gazette for our big season preview story is just what Mitch Keller, Brian Hayes and Bryan Reynolds are all locked in until 2028. You couldn’t say that last year on Opening Day. You could say that about two of the guys. And you had just signed Brian Reynolds to an extension just days before that, right? Now you’ve got Mitch Keller in the fold. That’s the guy who’s a little bit of a success story for the Pirates. You know, it’s obviously documented, the trials and tribulations he went through. So that’s one reason I would say that they’re in a better spot.”

“Reason number two, is that the guys are a year older. And I know that’s a cliche, but it’s true for a group that’s very young that is so dependent on what contributions they get from rookies, second year players, and third year players. The fact that your leadership group of Reynolds, Hayes, and Keller, all these guys are still relatively young players. On a lot of teams they might be, you know, a budding star, somebody who’s still up on the ascent. You can still say that to Ke’Bryan Hayes. He’s a guy who still has a lot of room to grow. And obviously they’re in a better spot because Oneil Cruz is healthy. Certainly he was healthy at the beginning of the year last year 2023. But he got hurt, what, ten, 12 games into the year with the slide at home plate against the White Sox. So yeah, I look at it as they’re in a better spot, just in that sense that they’ve got guys locked up. The future is secure, at least in that respect, and they’ve got Oneil Cruz back and we all know that that’s always a good thing.”

Q: How much of an X-Factor do you think Oneil Cruz can be for the Pirates this year?

A: “The power is everything, and it’s an X factor in so many different ways, right? Look at what the Pirates got last year at shortstop in terms of their production. Defensively, it was below league average. Offensively, it was well below league average. If Oneil Cruz can just return to being, you know, let’s say in his first full season that he has in the big leagues, if he can be a 20 homer guy who plays adequate defense a chart, that’s a huge boost for the Pirates. The thing about Cruz that makes him such an X factor. He’s capable of so much more. He’s a guy who could legitimately hit 40 home runs. He has seven home runs in Spring Training that’s like top five in Pirates Spring Training history. We saw the potential there in terms of the power. It’s been documented at the MLB level just not in a full sample size. So he’s somebody who’s certainly an X factor there.”

“And defensively he’s an X factor just in the sense of what kind of Oneil Cruz do we get? It’s not as if before the injury, this was a guy who cemented himself as a Gold Glove shortstop. There’s still a lot of questions there about the consistency, you know, the throwing accuracy. Can he range to his left and to his right? Those are even bigger question marks now coming off the ankle injury as a pretty serious injury. So, you know, it might be too much to say the entire season rests on him. There’s a lot of other factors, but there’s no one player, I think, more impactful to the Pirates season than Oneil Cruz.”

Q: You mentioned the Spring Training home runs. The Pirates finished tied for first in the MLB in home runs this spring with 49. What do you think led to that power surge?

A: “I think it’s something that the Pirates sought to address this offseason. And, yeah, a lot of those home runs were hit by guys that they didn’t get out in the free agent signings. But last year, this was a team that was not a power heavy team. If memory serves me right they were 28th in MLB and home runs overall, maybe about half as many as the Atlanta Braves had. This is 2024. If you’re going to be a successful baseball team you got to be able to hit the ball out of the ballpark.”

“The Pirates have shown that they’re at least trying to do that based off of what they got in Spring Training. I think it’s an approach thing too and working with hitting coach Andy Haines I think in trying to get these guys to lift the ball in the air. And another factor is just that you know again cliche but younger players getting more seasoning that leads to usually better power results because they’re more used to the pitching. You’re more used to the velocity, the speed of the game, all that sort of thing, the break off speed. So I think really this is the team that they’re going to hit more homeruns this year. Are they going to lead the league? Probably not. I would be hard pressed to see if they repeat what they did in Spring Training, but I think it’s somewhere in between on a daily basis on a game to day basis.”

Q: One guy who struggled most of the year last year offensively was Ke’Bryan Hayes who came on at the end of the year. We know he was working with other hitting coaches, except how big do you think that end of this season was for him to carry over into 2024 because he really looked like a five tool player kind of there because he already plays Gold Glove defense?

A: “Yeah, certainly he showed his full potential and that’s the guy we saw the last two months of the year. That’s the guy that the pirates extend into that long term deal. That’s what they envision of him, an above average hitter and an elite defender. I think it’s really important for him for a couple of reasons. But first and foremost, when talking about Ke’Bryan Hayes, the thing that comes to mind to me is how that back needs to be healthy. If the back isn’t healthy, then what are we talking about here? Because Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to be in the lineup. He was limited to 124 games last year. I believe he needs to be in that lineup. And he’s talked about how he’s figured out a way to be on top of his health with his back, has found ways to make sure that that’s in a good spot. He showed what he’s capable of. It showed that in 2020, that wasn’t a fluke when he had the fantastic end to the Covid season.”

Q: The NL Central is probably the one division that’s just kind of up for grabs. There’s really no favorite. The Cubs could have easily made moves to try to make themselves the favorite and they didn’t spend any money. How do you view the outlook of the NL Central and for the Pirates potentially making a run for the division title because last year they were in first place for a good portion of April ?

A: It’s this could go anywhere, really. And it’s an answer that probably makes everybody wonder what actually are the 2024 Pirates. They can be a first place team. They could be a last place team. This division is wide open. It’s got as much parity or lack of excellence or however you want to describe it as any division in baseball. Everybody is anywhere between mediocre and a pretty good. I think the big differentiating factor for any of these teams is pitching.”

“Who’s going to pitch the best and last year you could point to a team like the Milwaukee Brewers and say, well they’ve got the best rotation that’s why they’re going to win the division. Well, they sold off Corbin Burnes. So when I look at the outlook of the whole division, I really don’t know who you would pinpoint and say that’s a clean and obvious team.”

“You can give me a legitimate argument about why the Cardinals are going to win the division after last year, finishing in fifth, and I would believe you on that. So it’s wide open. The Pirates spent a little bit probably not as much as they needed to, to make themselves a clear cut candidate. If you ask me I think third or fourth is a realistic pick for the Pirates.”

Q: Is this kind of one of the in the current stage of the rebuild where it’s in the last stage before all of the guys that are kind of ready and starting to learn to win together because you know because they didn’t really go out and spend a ton like they didn’t go and get that lucrative free agent that you see a lot of those teams doing when they get to that stage?

A: “I think they’re one year away. And the key this is such an important year because you’re kind of figuring out, hey, are the guys that we got that we really believe in and invested in, are they for real or is this rebuild? Not quite as far along as we thought. That’s what the season is all about.”

“For me, it’s a big year to circle on the calendar is 2025. That’s where you start thinking, OK, this is compete now mode. This is window mode. This is when the you know, the window opens to me that season for the Pirates feels more like 2012 for Pirates fans who you know look back to that time before they made the three straight playoff runs to the postseason. I look at in 2012 where they might jump out of the gate they might be a .500 team, but they’re still a year away from competing.”

“You got to figure out what you have in Henry Davis if you can sure the future is he a franchise cornerstone for five to eight to 10 years where you can consistently put back there or the defensive deficiencies going to be too much and you got to stick the guy in right field or he becomes a designated hitter.”

“What do you have an O’Neill Cruz can he play every day shortstop. Um you know second base is Jared Triolo the answer there or is it going to be somebody else that they sent down like a Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero? What do you have in some of your pitching prospects? Quinn Priester last year showed that he didn’t quite have it. He’s going to start the year in the minors can he come up here and be a guy or is he another first run bust for the Pirates? There’s so many question marks, and that’s what this year is all about answering. Are these guys ready or is this rebuild not as far along as we thought it is.”

Q: You mentioned earlier the extensions that they signed to Reynolds, Hayes, and Mitch Keller this spring and that was something that they didn’t do in their last run when they made the playoffs from 2013 to 2015. How big of a commitment do you think that kind of maybe shows the fan base this time around that they want to actually continue this success and have it be more sustained?

A: “I think it genuinely shows them, hey, like this is something for the long haul. Listen, again, I said it earlier and it’s true, the Pirates are not going to out spend a team like the New York Yankees. They’re not going to outspend the Los Angeles Dodgers. That doesn’t mean that you can’t hold on the guys who can be part of a winning formula for the long haul. I think they learned that the last time that, hey, if you can lock up three or four core guys, yeah, it might mean that you have to cut ties with other ones a little bit earlier than you’d like to, and it might mean the window of winning might be a little bit more sustained.”

“But I bring that all up to say that I think they learned from last time around. The Pirates learned that, hey, if we’re going to do this, we’re going to need to lock up a few guys, and that’s going to make this winning product a heck of a lot more sustainable or at the very least, marketable because the reality is that fans don’t want to go out there and see a rotating cast of blank names on the back of the jersey. They want to see guys that show that they’re invested in winning, but they care. And I think you got that with these three guys. And maybe they’re not going to all be perennial all stars for the long, long haul, but they’ve certainly all got the potential for it.”

Q: Another top prospect they got in their minor league system is Termarr Johnson. He’s shown flashes of greatness, however he has had some struggles at the plate. What do you think the outlook is for him this season?

A: “The big thing for me with Termarr Johnson, it’s not so much what we get from him at the plate. It’s how does he fare defensively. This is a guy who has a great eye and has shown in Spring Training that he can keep up with some hot, fast pitching, big league level competition. He’s not ready for that. But the potential is there. You can see it with the bat. He’s got a smooth swing. He’s got a great approach. Can he stick in the infield? Can he be a big league second baseman? That’s my biggest question because otherwise he might have to move to the outfield. And it’s something that diminishes his value greatly.”

“There’s a big difference between being a left fielder and being a second base in second baseman. If you can hit 20 home runs, 25 home runs at second base, that’s huge. And he has the potential to do that at the plate. But that’s coming in the outfield it become more of a diamond doesn’t guy. So with Termarr I’m really curious to see what kind of development we see from him in the field now something like that, where it happened where guys we got these position changes.”

Q: We don’t know if Henry Davis is a catcher. The outfield is kind of getting crowded. So how do you think that might impact things with the Pirates kind of maybe having a difficult decision and figure out which guys are going to be their outfielders and which guys could potentially be used as trade chips to fill other needs?

A: Yeah, I think that’s exactly it. And I think you’re kind of alluding to what the Pirates plan might be in 2025 or 2026. I’m not saying any specific names, but hey, this is a guy who would be surefire trade bait, but when you got a surplus, you’re going to have deficit number in other areas. And the pirates certainly have that when it comes to different areas, whether that’s, hey, we can get better relief pitching, whether we can get more starting pitching.”

“When you look at the prospect pool right now outside of Termarr Johnson, it’s pretty bare in terms of position players that you look look toward and say, hey, these guys we think highly of. So, you know, that’s all to say that the outfield picture might be a little crowded right now, but you know, there’s certainly some movement that could take place in the near future as well as other spots in the infield or maybe if you can guys in the rotation as well.”

“There’s a lot of moving parts there. And I think that when it comes to the outfield depth, the pirates got a surplus there. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the near future take advantage of that accordingly.”

Q: What do you think is a realistic win total for the Pirates this year? Last year they won 14 more games than they had in 2022 and they might not finish 14 games better this year, however I think it’s reasonable to to potentially get closer to .500.

A: “.500 is the number that I have them around give or take a few wins. If you’re asking me point blank all right what’s the winning total for the pirates. 79 wins I think 79 and 83 is a realistic expectation and anything above .500 you would consider a success.”

“The problem I have with this Pirates team in terms of relating it back to 2023 personally speaking I think 2023 with a little bit of an aberration. The 14 wins was a bigger jump than they probably should have expected, going from 62 wins to 76. They’re probably more like a 71 team last year. But that incredible start in April like you mentioned going 20-8 at one point that was not representative of who the Pirates really were.”

“The second half where Ke’Bryan Hayes was hitting great. Some of the prospects are coming up they’re doing well. That gives you confidence. So I would say .500 is a good expectation. I’ll go a couple of losses below and say 79 and 83.”

Q: One thing you alluded to that this season isn’t necessarily all about wins and losses. It’s the development of young players and trying to still learn to win together before you get to that next stage of the rebuild when you’re ready to compete.

A: “Yeah it absolutely is. It’s this set. This stage right here is let’s see how we can get better in 2025. How can the Pirates get better as a team, you know across the board? Can they become a better team defensively? Can they get more adept at some of those tighter hitting situations that are going to help for postseason baseball down the line? We’re in a 2-1 ball game and you got to come through in the bottom of the eighth. You know, those kinds of swing settings are going to be the ones that are really impactful this game.”

“So you know 2024 if it ends up being a season where you’re competing for a postseason spot, great. That’s awesome. It might not be due to expectation externally internally and they certainly feel that way I believe that they’re probably a year away. They could exceed expectations and really challenge and make some difficult decisions for Ben Cherington as the trade deadline when we get there in a few months. But I think for the time being, the focus is still continually on getting better. And if that manifests itself in the Pirates being a competitor for the postseason, then that’s great.”

Q: You mentioned you’re winning those 2-1 games and those one run games are the hardest ones to win. You’ve got to have a good bullpen, and this Pirates team seems to have a really good bullpen, especially at the back end where you have Aroldis Chapman setting up David Bednar.

A: The bullpen is certainly the strength, and it’s something that if you ask me what is the Pirates greatest strength, it’s the bullpen the only question is whether Chapman and Bednar are both healthy, but two guys who are arguably as important and getting the ball to them are Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman. They’re both out to start the year. Holderman was dealing with an illness and Mlodzinski just the usual wear and tear there. So those guys, they’re going to be huge for the Pirates success in the bullpen in terms of getting the ball to the eighth and ninth inning guys and Chapman and Bednar respectively. But those two could be the best 1-2 punch in baseball. And I don’t use that liberally. I mean, that’s just that’s just reality. You got a two time All-Star closer in Bednar and Chapman is as accomplished a closer as there is in the big leagues and now he’s embraced this role later in his career of being that late inning reliever who doesn’t, you know, close out the game. So if they can get the ball to those guys in the seventh inning, eighth inning, ninth inning, then they’re golden. But you got to get a starter who can get you through five or six.”

Q: One of the most important things that Chapman brings to the table is being a flame throwing left hander. There are a lot of contending teams that want a good left handed reliever like that.

A: You got to bring that up. It’s a it’s a strange thing to bring up just because if the Pirates season goes south or maybe not qualify as expected and you get to the trade deadline and you’re, hey, five, six, seven games under .500, you got to take those trade calls seriously. He’s on a one year contract. It’s not as if this isn’t a guy that other teams would be very interested in getting. And also, it’s not as if a 36 year old or all this Chapman is going to be what carries the Pirates to really you know extended success in 2029, but somebody else could. Somebody that you trade Aroldis Chapman for so I think he’s somebody who certainly can help for this year especially if the Pirates are able to make that postseason push, but if not that’s a trade trip that if all goes according to plan he’s on an expiring contract and team friendly deal. So yeah Chapman could go somewhere and make an impact.”

Q: Relievers always seem to fetch the best return on the trade market at the deadline at least among players on expiring contracts.

A: “There are worse problems to have than getting rid of a guy in the team friendly deal like that for the pirates sake. Yeah, it’s. It’s a guy who you look at all is Chapman and say, hey, OK, you you have established postseason success. He’s done it with multiple teams. He’s won multiple World Series titles before with Chicago and as well with the Texas Rangers most recently. So Chapman’s got a lot that he brings to the table with experience and an established track record. So when it comes to approaching a prospect or two, maybe it’s not going to be the top end guy in any other teams farm system but certainly he’s going to get you, you know a toolsy guy who maybe down the road could help you out.”

Q: How do you feel the balance is in terms of veteran players and young prospects that are going to be on the Opening Day roster?

A: “If you had asked me that question in February, I would have given you a much different answer than now. And I say that because I think the Pirates did a good job of going out there and hey, we’re still going out and getting a Michael A Taylor. I like what he brings to the table in terms of outfield defense to power. Rudy Tellez is a great clubhouse guy as well. You know, look across the board. There’s a lot of spots that you say, hey, yeah, there’s a good veteran nucleus there. But the nice thing now, I think for the Pirates sake is that, yeah, it’s not just, hey, it’s a bunch of young guys. Throw them out there and see what happens. You’ve got a few established big leaguers. Reynolds, Hayes, and Keller. These are legitimate all star type guys. They kind of set the tone of the room. A guy like Connor Joe, he helped set the tone of the room. And then you got guys like Tellez who can compliment it. Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, they’ve been there, done that. I think it’s a more veteran laden group than we saw at the end of last year, which is only a good thing the Pirates, because that’s going to help those young guys carry along and establish themselves in the big leagues that much better.”

Q: Speaking of veterans, they also brought back Andrew McCutchen. How big do you think it it could be for this young group to be learning from kind of the guy who was the face of the franchise in that last stretch where they were really good? He’s a guy that knows how to win in Pittsburgh.

A: “Yeah, it’s super important. He’s the bridge to the last time this team had this, you know, extended success. That’s not anything to sneeze at. And it’s also not anything to sneeze at his impact in the clubhouse. Still, this is a guy who just certainly is still a positive impact. He’s a guy who is very approachable for any young guy. They all have a lot of respect for these veterans. These are guys who are 23, 24 years old and when they were growing up, they looked at this Pirates team and said, well, yeah, Andrew McCutchen, that was, you know, an MVP gold glove type guy who was one of the faces of the league bases of the Pittsburgh Pirates.”

“So in terms of having a bridge to the past, the last time the Pirates were truly successful, McCutchen still carries that weight and he still carries a good back. I mean, this is a guy who last year went healthy, you know, at a photo ops at the bottom of the park, put the ball out of the ballpark on the occasion is he now probably going to be relegated to mostly designated hitter role? Yeah, but that’s OK because you can still be that voice of authority in the room and also a guy who connects them to the last time that the pirates really were that good.”

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