<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3j169L_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3j169L_1H4293nF00" width="628" height="750" ></figure>by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont's weekly unemployment claims fell last week but are on the rise, typical of the seasonal trend. For the week ending November 7, 2026, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that there were 482 new claims, down 5 from the previous week and up 69 from last year at this time. Summer hiring typically drives claims down, while they begin to climb in the fall before extreme swings in claims occur around the holidays. Total job claims for the week were 2,659, up 48 from the week before and down 98 from last year at this time. Claims in 2026 have tended to run higher than 2025, but have been running lower the last few weeks. Initial claims, which are typically lowest in the summer, were 186 in September 2025. Recent layoffs have occurred at the UVM Health Network and at the software firm Vermont Information Processing (see WARN layoff notice below).Meanwhile, the Vermont unemployment rate held steady at 2.6% in September, the third lowest in the nation, while September state revenues exceeded their targets, as the Personal Income tax, the most important revenue source, bolstered the General Fund. See reports below.Nationally, stocks are in a rut, even as GDP grew faster than expected and the Fed chose not to raise interest rates in October (as expected despite inflation again rising). Stocks were mixed on Friday after wild swings since the election because of Nvidia drama, oil prices and concerns over AI investment. The Dow had a good day, while the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq were down.While weaker jobs numbers could give Fed governors pause on whether or not to raise interest rates later this year, but higher inflation will likely lead the Fed to raise interest rates in December. Higher interest rates could weaken the economy and thus lower inflation.The Fed's 0.25% increase in September was the first since 2023 and brings the central bank’s rate to between 3.75% and 4.00%. Despite governors' previous disagreements over whether to raise, lower or hold rates, this vote was unanimous.For Vermont's weekly labor UI claims report, manufacturing accounted for 5% of the total, down 3 points. Manufacturing overall has become a smaller part of the Vermont economy over the last 25 years and that trend appears to be continuing. The Service industry, which typically accounts for the most claims, last week reported 58% from the previous week, down 7 points. Construction was 16%, up 6 points. In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 200,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 189,000 to 191,000. The 4-week moving average was 195,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 194,750 to 195,250.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=0GDKLo_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=0GDKLo_1H4293nF00" width="680" height="830" ></figure>The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $336.6 million in the Trust Fund, up about $2.6 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.Mass layoffs must be reported to the Vermont Labor Commissioner. WARN applies to employers with 50 or more employees planning mass layoffs or business closures affecting 50+ workers within a 90-day period. See recent WARN notices below.Affected WorkersNotices<h2>All WARN Notices — Vermont</h2>101 totalDownload full CSV — $20 →101 total notices for VermontCompany TypeWorkers↕WARN▼SourceWARN layoff notices are regularly published by Vermont JobLink. View official government source<h2>Vermont’s unemployment rate again holds at 2.6% in September</h2><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1a3y1j_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1a3y1j_1H4293nF00" width="724" height="283" ></figure>The Vermont Department of Labor has reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for September was 2.6 percent. This reflects no change from the prior month’s revised estimate. Vermont is tied with New Hampshire for the third lowest rate in the nation. South (2.0%) and North Dakota (2.2%) are lowest, and California and Connecticut are highest at 5.1%. The US rate is up one-tenth to 4.2%. The civilian labor force participation rate in Vermont also held steady in September, remaining at 62.1 percent, which is down from 66.0% in July 2024 and 72.8% in July 2009. TD Bank Economist Andrew Foran discussed the Vermont economy at the VermontBiz2Biz Expo on October 15. He mentioned the decline in the state's labor participation rate as one reason the labor force and employment numbers have fallen, but also why the unemployment rate remains low. He also discussed the state's slow economic growth, and the outsized impact Canadian trade has on Vermont. See the TD forecast and related tables below."It has been a beautiful fall, with vibrant foliage reminding us that winter is just around the corner. As the seasons change, so do employment opportunities across Vermont," said Kendal Smith, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. "The Department is hosting the second annual ‘Work Your Way’ part-time job fair series across the state on Wednesday, October 21, and Wednesday, November 4. This opportunity allows Vermonters to connect with local employers and explore part-time and seasonal positions. These fairs may be especially valuable for Vermonters whose access to Medicaid could be affected by the federal H.R. 1 legislation, offering a chance to explore employment options that fit their schedules and needs. For details on locations and times, visit vermontjoblink.com/events." The comparable United States rate in September was 4.2 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised August estimate. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for September show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 54 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 104 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 50. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.The September unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 2.2 percent in Chittenden County to 3.3 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the September unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.6 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted August level and an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=38Bq1l_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=38Bq1l_1H4293nF00" width="722" height="529" ></figure>Seasonally Adjusted (Table 3)The seasonally adjusted data for September reported an increase of 200 jobs from the revised August data. There was an increase of 200 jobs between the preliminary and the revised August estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in September varied at the industry level. The industries with a notable increase were: Private Educational Services (+600 jobs or +4.9%) and State Government (+500 jobs or +2.7%). There were no industries with a notable decrease. <figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3lLI9e_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3lLI9e_1H4293nF00" width="721" height="647" ></figure>Not-Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 4)The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for September showed an increase of 1,400 jobs when compared to the revised August numbers. As with the seasonally adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised August numbers which experienced an increase of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally-adjusted September data, Total Private industries decreased by 600 jobs (-0.2%) over the year and Government (including public education) employment increased by 400 (+0.7%) in the past year.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4R4xnx_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4R4xnx_1H4293nF00" width="719" height="782" ></figure><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4DLtBx_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4DLtBx_1H4293nF00" width="1315" height="485" ></figure>The shaded areas represent US recessions. The break in 2025 represents the US DOL failure to report data.<h2>State revenues boast strong results in September</h2><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2YMBPJ_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2YMBPJ_1H4293nF00" width="814" height="275" ></figure>Vermont’s revenue results for September 2026 show that all three funds exceeded their respective monthly consensus cash flow targets, as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2026 meeting.The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $372.6 million, exceeding the $346.8 million monthly consensus target by $25.8 million, or 7.4%.Total General Fund revenues for September were $276.5 million, $24.8 million, or 9.9%, above the $251.7 million monthly consensus cash flow target. This strong result was driven by the outperformance of the Personal Income Tax (+$17.5M, or 11.9%, above consensus expectations) and the Corporate Income Tax (+$10.5M, or 24.6%, above target), partially offset by the Estate Tax (-$2.2M, or 85.0%, below target) and the Insurance Premium Tax (-$0.5M, or 65.5%, below target). Personal Income Tax is the most important GF revenue source.Year-to-date, General Fund revenues are $594.0 million, $25.3 million, or 4.5%, above the $568.7 million cumulative target.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=36VZ9e_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=36VZ9e_1H4293nF00" width="817" height="258" ></figure>Revenues in the Transportation Fund exceeded their $29.2 million September consensus target by $0.3 million, or 1.1%, yielding $29.5 million in total. Category performance was mixed: MV Purchase &amp; Use revenues (+$0.5M, or 5.3%, above target) and Other Fees (+$0.4M, or 17.5%, above target) outpaced consensus expectations, while MV Fees (-$0.4M, or 4.2%, below target) and Gasoline (-$0.2M, or 3.6%, below target) fell short of their monthly targets.Monthly Education Fund revenues of $66.6 million were $0.7 million, or 1.0%, above their September $65.9 million consensus cash flow target. Lottery Transfer revenues (+$0.5M, or 18.6%, above target) and Sales &amp; Use Tax collections (+$0.5M, or 0.9%, above target) drove this result, partially offset by underperformance in the Meals &amp; Room Tax (-$0.5M, or 5.3%, below target).According to Administration Secretary Sarah Clark: “Vermont's revenues came in ahead of expectations in September, and the first quarter closed with the State tracking above cumulative consensus targets in the General Fund and for all three funds combined - an encouraging result in what has been a turbulent period for the broader economy.”<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1hihVX_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1hihVX_1H4293nF00" width="673" height="826" ></figure><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1uRrIJ_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1uRrIJ_1H4293nF00" width="716" height="556" ></figure><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4JCRop_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4JCRop_1H4293nF00" width="671" height="460" ></figure><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3443Ap_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3443Ap_1H4293nF00" width="1150" height="764" ></figure><h2>New Hampshire, Maine &amp; Vermont: Cross-Border Headwinds Temper the Outlook</h2><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3AXqt8_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3AXqt8_1H4293nF00" width="868" height="648" ></figure>The region’s economy strengthened in early 2026, although performance remained uneven across states. Manufacturing, professional services, and health care supported growth across all three states, with the information technology sector providing an additional boost in New Hampshire. For 2026, we expect real GDP growth of 2.0% in New Hampshire, 1.3% in Maine, and 1.1% in Vermont.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2BiFRP_1H4293nF00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2BiFRP_1H4293nF00" width="400" height="333" ></figure>Andrew Foran is an Economist at TD Bank. Photo: Andrew Cate for VermontBiz.One of the more significant risks facing the tri-state region is trade disputes with Canada. Maine and Vermont are more exposed to cross-border trade than New Hampshire, as trade with Canada amounts to 5-7% of GDP for each state. However, much of this exposure is concentrated on the import side, and only a limited share is subject to the new Section 338 tariffs. As a result, tariffs should represent a manageable headwind unless trade tensions escalate further.Labor market conditions improved across Northern New England in the first half of 2026, though performance remained uneven across states. New Hampshire generated nearly all the region's momentum, with employment rising 1% year-to-date, supported by gains in professional &amp; business services and leisure &amp; hospitality that helped to lower its unemployment rate. By contrast, Maine's job growth remained modest amid broad-based weakness, while Vermont's employment edged lower as gains in local government and health care failed to offset declines in other service sectors. Despite the divergence in hiring, a contraction in the labor force has helped keep unemployment rates stable in Maine and Vermont. Looking ahead, demographic headwinds and slower immigration inflows are likely to limit labor force growth, leaving regional unemployment rates broadly stable through 2027.House prices in all three states accelerated in the first quarter of the year before decelerating into the summer. Year-to-date prices are up 2.2% in New Hampshire, 1.6% in Maine, and 0.5% in Vermont. Supply levels have remained relatively tighter in New Hampshire, which has led to firmer price growth in the state. However, challenging affordability dynamics have weighed on growth in all three states, which is likely to remain a constraint even in a limited supply environment. For 2026, we expect price growth of 4.1% in Maine, 3.1% in New Hampshire, and 2.3% in Vermont.To support vital journalism, access our archives and get unique features like our award-winning profiles, Book of Lists &amp; Business-to-Business Directory, subscribe HERE!</div></body>

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By Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont's weekly unemployment claims fell last week but are on the rise, typical of the seasonal trend. For the week ending November 7, 2026, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that there were 482 new claims, down 5 from the previous week and up 69 from last year at this time. Summer hiring typically drives claims down, while they begin to climb in the fall before extreme swings in claims occur around the holidays.

Weekly unemployment claims stay elevated

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By Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont's weekly unemployment claims fell last week but are on the rise, typical of the seasonal trend. For

Weekly unemployment claims stay elevated

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