Power grid operator issues winter outlook as demand continues to increase

VALLEY FORGE, Pa.- The power grid operator for Pennsylvania, New Jersey and 11 other states says it is prepared to meet the challenges of the colder months ahead.

PJM Interconnection, with headquarters in Montgomery County, is forecasting peak electricity demand of approximately 147,500 megawatts (MW) over the winter. PJM said it expects to have 182,426 MW of operational capacity available.

Should that predicted peak become reality, a new winter record would be set in the PJM footprint. The current record of 143,700 MW was established on Jan. 22, 2025.

PJM also noted that extreme cold has added to the challenges of general demand growth; earlier this year, the PJM service territory saw the most prolonged period of extreme cold since the 1990s, recording hourly winter peak loads above 130,000 MW for eight days straight from Jan. 26 to Feb. 2.

In coming up with its current winter power prediction, PJM looked at factors that include long-range weather forecasts. The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for much of the country, including all of the PJM footprint, PJM said.

Even so, PJM said it remains concerned that increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements and the slow pace of new generator projects coming online are eroding its reserve margins.

At the same time, the number of flexible generation resources that can respond quickly to an immediate need is decreasing. Significantly higher levels of generator outages, such as those that occurred during a blizzard in late 2022 (impacting 46,000 MW), could leave the system vulnerable to power outages, PJM said.

Last winter and through 2026, PJM relied on Demand Response customers to help reduce load during times of peak electricity.

Those customers are paid in advance to reduce their power use when requested. The program has been activated 15 times in 2025 and 2026, versus eight times in the previous eight years, PJM said.

PJM will continue to call upon Demand Response customers when necessary and also will seek emergency orders from the Department of Energy (DOE), if needed.

PJM already has clearance from the DOE to direct data centers and other large load customers to use their backup generators as a last resort to reduce demand and avoid power outages for residential customers.

So far, PJM has not had to use this directive.

Power grid operator issues winter outlook as demand continues to increase

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