Thorns FC: Damn, that was ugly

Three of the four quarterfinals were near-run affairs, 1-nil squeakers, including one in which the winning team didn’t score the winning goal (sorry-not-sorry, Seattle!), another that went deep into injury time before the losing side gave up a penalty kick that the winner converted (Kansas City, you magnificent #@$!#!), and the third which might have been just a boring 0-1 win for the visitors…except the winner was Utah, giving us a possible avenue to host a home semifinal this season.

But.

Unfortunately, to do that the Thorns had to get past the Washington Spirit first, and, well…let’s just say that things didn’t go so well.

Beginning only six minutes in, when the Spirit press, in the person of Tiffany Rodman (who else..?), stripped Carolyn Calzada of the ball in the long early-afternoon shadows of the Thorns’ goal.

Rodman then skinned Isabella Obaze to the byline and crossed through pretty much all of the remaining Thorns defenders to Melissa Bethi standing, as unmarked as a forward could be, near the penalty spot inside the Portland eighteen-yard-box.

Boom.

One-nil.

Portland had a couple of half-chances after that.

In the 9th minute the Thorns played out of the back (which they tried repeatedly, desperately, in the first half-hour or so, and we’ll talk about that…) through Pietra Tordin to Caiya Hanks, who made it to the byline and crossed. To no one, and the ball was cleared away harmlessly.

In the 20th minute Hanks attacked the Spirit’s left channel again and crossed in again. This time Sandy MacIver blocked it over the byline, and on the ensuing corner kick Marie Muller lobbed the clearance back in for Sophia Wilson to have a hack at it, but her unthreatening shot was blocked right out for Clara Luvanga to take the length of the pitch the other way.

Eight minutes later Jessie Fleming intercepted a loose Spirit pass and found Wilson on the run. Wilson saw Hanks running into space to her left and led her; Hanks had MacIver 1v0, but just couldn’t get her touch right. She took a touch with her left foot trying to set up the shot, but…

The touch was a bit too heavy and the ball ran a bit too far, and by the time Hanks caught up with it and was in position to strike it again MacIver was in place to use her face to block it out for a corner kick.

Tough gig, goalkeeping. Ouch.

The corner was going nowhere when Obaze got whistled up for a foul in the box.

Then, in the 34th minute, Coach Vilahamn’s, and the Thorns’s plans, whatever they may have been, went completely to Hell.

Mackenzie Arnold rolled a short pass out to Obaze who played another little slow roller up to Nina Nijstad.

Nijstad was immediately pressed and, as Thorns players are wont to do when pressed, immediately played the ball backwards to Obaze, who had Rodman all up in her face immediately pressing.

Instead of booting safely into touch Obaze played a slow skipping ball back to Arnold. The problem was that Luvanga was positioned between the two Thorns and immediately saw the opportunity, tear-assing into the goalmouth where Arnold, never the deftest with the ball at her feet, fumbled about trying to shift the ball from her left to her favored right foot.

Luvanga made the choice immaterial, taking the ball off both Arnold’s feet and bundling it into the goal for the matchwinner.

The third concession – just a minute later – seemed almost comical, Washington chuckling at how thoroughly the supposedly-white-knuckle quarterfinal had turned into a comedy-soccer romp, pressing Fleming and forcing yet another turnover which created yet another Luvanga attack which found yet another Thorns defender (Calzada) standing about staring off in a reverie as Luvanga crossed to Rodman for yet another goal, this one the dagger.

As I watched the Thorns 2026 season die on Audi Field the most frustrating part of that was knowing that all these Thorns-killing problems had been there the…

Whole

Fucking

Time.

All the problems we’d been seeing all season were there on the Audi pitch, just lying around waiting to be assembled into fucking Gundam to beat the Thorns to death:

1) Goalkeeping problems (handling, decision-making, footwork) that were especially troubling because of

2) Backline issues, both individual quality and group cohesion/understanding/decision-making, all exacerbated by the

3) Slow pace of play (passing, movement, decision-making) which also led directly to

4) Vulnerability to pressing (and poor counterpressing) that produced turnovers, especially in the defensive half and, often, were turned into immediate danger in the defensive third, as well as

5) Lack of control in midfield – that also produced danger in back more often than not – while

6) Attacking coordination/combination/understanding was sporadic and often absent – i.e. if someone wasn’t doing successful hero-ball there often WAS little or no attack…so going down early often meant inability to pull back into the match late.

All it lacked was a genuinely competent, well-managed, well-organized opponent with a stacked roster to put all that, or enough of it, together.

We’d already seen how sometimes even relatively poor opponents, like Boston and Chicago here or Bay FC away, could manage to put together those things, or enough of them, to do a number on the Portland squad.

In D.C. well-managed, roster-laden Washington hit every one of those notes and that’s why the match was effectively over before halftime.

It’s an odd sort of damning-with-faint-praise that Vilahamn’s 38th minute subs did help stop the bleeding, and after the break the Thorns kinda-sorta clawed themselves back into a “lose-by-one-goal-or-maybe-even-go-to-penalties-if-we’re-lucky” match.

But the hole was already too deep, so now the gang is off to Puerta Vallarta then hitting the weight room and the jogging track until February.

What then?

We’ll talk about that at the end of the piece.

Short Passes

The postseason is where OPTA and the league’s stats-hoarding greed really kick in. Carlisle-sensei stops writing up the match stats, so I lack passing plots and xG progressions. Sofascore has some xG breakdowns which we can use, but that’s about it.

So let’s start with what we do have, Sofascore’s “attacking momentum” plot:

Pretty much what the match looked like in realtime. Washington all over Portland. Portland getting sporadic looks, but not generating much real danger, either through fallng apart at the final pass or not finding the final shot. Much of the final pass problem was Washington making the defensive play, but most of the shot problem was, as we’ll break down below, Portland’s attackers, and especially Sophia Wilson, not being able to make space for good looks, or not shooting well when they could.

As usual with a Vilahamn squad the possession numbers run heavily towards Washington (59% to 41%) as do the passing, Washington completing 79% of 439 passes, Portland a dreadful 68% of only 299.

The Thorns season-long problems with passing – a combination of mishit attempts and glacially slow pace (both the passers in releasing the pass and the receiver in moving to pick it up) – were brutally exposed by Washington. The Spirit were first to nearly every 50/50 or even close-to-even ball. We’ll get down into the weeds on that in a bit.

I thought that breaking down the individual xG numbers might be a bit useful, so here’s Sofascore’s breakdowns:

Player Shots SOT xG xG/SOT Player Shots SOT xG xG/SOT

Luvanga311.091.09Wilson530.450.15

Rodman521.20.6Tordin320.420.21

Bethi110.430.43Weaver210.260.26

Sullivan110.340.34Hanks110.230.23

Total 10 5 3.06 2.43 Total 11 7 1.36 0. 85

Hmmm. So. Here’s what jumps out from this for me:

1) What we saw Sunday; Washington made better (and converted more) chances from a similar number of opportunities. Portland’s attack was much less clinical, even though several Thorns got decent looks.

2) Luvanga’s value came almost entirely from her pace and aggression. If Rodman is a sniper, Luvanga is some sort of horrifying combination of a tank and Gojira. Remember the whole “Everybody’s got a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth” quote supposedly from Mike “The Biter” Tyson? Yeah, well, Luvanga is Washington’s punch in the mouth.

3) Wilson is the straw that stirs the Thorns attacking drink, and when that straw doesn’t stir? The drink isn’t very fizzy. All the “not-Wilson” Thorns attackers have issues which we’ll discuss in the comments. And Wilson had a very poor day at Audi.

Put all of that together – collapse under the high press, defensive and goalkeeping errors, sputtering attack – and you’re gonna get hustled out of the playoffs most quick smart.

Turnover and over. Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result) Turnovers

Washington – Away (W)26

Seattle – Home (W)11

San Diego – Away (L)29

Kansas City – Home (W)23

North Carolina – Away (D)25

Angel City – Away (W)22

San Diego – Home (W)17

Chicago – Away (W)32

Louisville – Away (L)25

Angel City – Home (D)No data

Bay FC – Home (W)33

Kansas City – Away (L)29

Utah – Home (D)23

Louisville – Home (W)21

Seattle – Away (L)33

Denver – Away (L)33

Gotham – Home (D)23

Utah – Away (L)17

Boston – Away (W)17

Orlando – Home (W)24

Denver – Home (W)19

Gotham – Away (D)21

Washington – Home (L)23

Chicago – Home (D)18

Orlando – Away (W)22

Houston – Home (D)20

Boston – Home (L)33

Bay FC – Away (D)35

North Carolina – Home (w)23

Houston – Away (W)27

Washington – Away (L)25

Taken out of context the Thorns giveaways don’t look too awful. But as we mentioned last time, context is everything. While the unforced turnovers weren’t a problem in themselves, combined with the forced turnovers from pressing the Thorns in D.C. had immense difficulties moving the ball upfield. The loss numbers track with the scoreline; as Portland was being punched around in the first half the Thorns turned over 14 times, and 9 time in the first 38 minutes. After the break, only 9 giveaways,

Washington was relatively tidy; 16 turnovers, fairly evenly divided between the halves, 9 and 7.

Turnovers were a big part of the backline problems; Perry was the Biggest Loser with four. Reyes coughed up three, Calzada two, Hiatt, Obaze, and Arnold one each. None was particularly dangerous, but all contributed to the disjointed, spasmodic pace of play that made things difficult for Portland.

Press! Thirtieth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Here’s the raw numbers.

Portland pressed 60 times in the first half, winning 27 times (45%) and forcing a turnover 9 times. After the break the pressing declined; 34 attempts, 18 wins (52.9%), and 6 turnovers.

Washington pressed 58 times before the break, but won 36 of them (62%) and forced Portland into a turnover a shocking 17 times, almost half of the successful presses and about a third (29.3%) of the total presses. After halftime the Spirit sat in a bit; 28 presses, but 22 wins (78.5%) and an even more successful forced turnover rate (12 of 22 wins, about 43% of the total presses).

Those numbers speak for themselves

Match time Spirit presses (wins)(%) Thorns presses (wins)(%)

0-45+5′58(36) (62%)60(27) (45%)

45-90+3′28(22) (78.5%)34(18) (52.9%)

Match Total 86(58) (67.4%) 94(45) (47.8%)

My thoughts:

1) The forced turnover ratio is brutally lopsided. Washington got possession out of 29 of 86 presses, about 34%. Portland? 15 out of 94, or 16%. That’s the game right there.

2) A lot of those turnovers were in Portland’s half, and many were in the defensive third. That meant that any sort of “playing out of the back” was more likely to produce a turnover and a threat to Portland’s goal than one to Washington’s. It also forced Portland to go Route One to try and get forward at all. The Thorns can play direct, but Washington’s backline and goalkeeping had that pretty much in hand, so little or no joy there, either. So…

3) Washington’s high press was a huge factor in winning this match for them,

3) What was kind of infuriating about that was Robert Vilahamn was asked about the press specifically in the post match interview and essentially admitted that he knew the punch in the face was coming and rather than come up with a workaround led with his club’s chin.

Here are his verbatim replies (beginning at about 18:43 in the linked video):

“They were very aggressive, forcing us to do mistakes…”

“I mean, we knew that they were aggressive…we play(ed) into their press, basically, or we actually lost the ball in their press.”

“For me it’s their aggressivity, their way of pressing us. We knew that about it but we couldn’t handle it.”

WTAF!!!???

So you knew your opponent’s most likely tactic was an extremely active, high, hard press, and yet you didn’t train to evade that? Or work up a response for it? Or even harden your squad to expect and deal with it so they wouldn’t come apart when encountering it? Like they did?

Jesus wept.

I know I’ve picked on this guy through the season, but that might well be the most “ I have no fucking idea how to prepared for a given matchday” Coaching 101 Fail I’ve ever fucking heard from him. It’s not even the usual coachspeak sort of “well, I think we played them pretty evenly.” thing. It’s saying “Well, yeah, I knew he had a sawed-off shotgun but, well, I just ran up to tackle him unarmed because of reasons.”

Just like not figuring out how to deal with the Washington press in the quarterfinal, that ain’t gonna end well.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result) Opponent Press (Success) Thorns Press (Success)

Washington Away (W)40(27) (67.5%)69(41) (59.4%)

Seattle Home (W)61(30) (49.1%)35(20) (57.1%)

San Diego Away (L)33(22) (66.6%)88(40) (45.4%)

Kansas City Home (W)26(15) (57.6%)43(23) (53.4%)

North Carolina Away (D)35(22) (62.8%)56(26) (46.4%)

Angel City Away (W)52(37) (71.1%)61(32) (52.4%)

San Diego Home (W)45(71) (63.3%)45(80) (56.2%)

Chicago Away (W)68(34) (50%)97(51) (52.2%)

Louisville Away (L)101(70) (69.5%)62(35) (56.4%)

Angel City Home (D)No dataNo data

Bay FC Home (W)59(34) (57.6%)59(37) (62.7%)

Kansas City Away (L)52(29) (55.7%)34(20) (58.8%)

Utah Home (D)99(55) (55.5%)60(31) (51.6%)

Louisville Home (W)55(31) (56.3%)28(13) (46.4%)

Seattle Away (L)67(46) (68.6%)66(35) (53.0%)

Denver Away (L)46(24) (52.1%)53(27) (50.9%)

Gotham Home (D)60(32) (53.3%)58(86) (67.4%)

Utah Away (L)86(61) (70.9%)70(38) (54.2%)

Boston Away (W)84(55) (65.4%)83(44) (53%)

Orlando Home (w)94(57) (60.6%)87(55 (63.2%)

Denver Home (W)87(55) (63.2%)60(32) (53.3%)

Gotham Away (D)42(34) (80.9%)90(49) (54.4%)

Washington Home (L)43(30) (69.7%)64(35) (54.6%)

Chicago Home (D)42(27) (64.2%)54(33) (61.1%)

Orlando Away (W)38(29) (76.3%)39(23) (58.9%)

Houston Home (D)20(11) (55%)43(23) (53.4%)

Boston Home (L)36(20) (55.1%)53(23) (43.3%)

BayFC Away (D)42(25 (59.5%)81(40) (49.4%)

North Carolina Home (W)59(30) (50.8%)95(42) (44.2%)

Houston Away (W)66(41) (62.1%)73(38) (52%)

Washington Away (L)58(86) (67.4%)94(45) (47.8%)

Corner Kicks

Three. Two in the first half, one in the second. All long.

Time Taker Short/Long ? Result

21′MullerLong“Long” is a misnomer; it was a looping delivery but way short, landing on the near side of the pack. The clearance went back to Muller for another lob. Cleared again but to Wilson. Her shot was blocked and turned over.

29′MullerLongThis time Muller hoofed it all the way over the scrum. Someone got a head to it and hit or cleared it wide of MacIver’s left post. The pack was still tussling over it when Obaze was whistled for a foul.

51′FlemingLongInto the pack, cleared, Reyes intercepted and dropped to Fleming. Fleming delivered a pretty service that Tordin latched onto and scored to make it 3-1

Muller screwed up twice and got nothing for her squad. Fleming hit a good delivery but needed extra work – good from both Reyes and Fleming on the recycle – and a patented piece of Tordin slick footwork to nick the goal. So it was nice to see something from one of these three deliveries, but two-thirds were wasted.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+9/-0 : +5/-2 : +14/-2) Here’s the thing about Sophia Wilson.

She’s a generational talent. Possibly – probably – the most gifted striker that has ever played in a Portland shirt. Having a Wilson on the roster is like having a big-ass hammer in your toolkit. One that can, under the right circumstances, drive a nail through the toughest materials. A game-changer. If you can get your hands on one you’d be nuts not to.

But there are costs.

If you have that big hammer you can’t not swing it. And that means that a lot of your attacking energy has to go into swinging that hammer. And if the swing isn’t on target, or the force behind the swing isn’t concentrated and focused, or the opponent has come up with some effective anti-hammer defenses? Then you’ve put all that effort and energy into what amounts to an ineffective energy-sump at the expense of your other attacking weapons.

But…there’s still that big hammer! What head coach has the confidence to keep that hammer behind her back, or use it as distraction? If that works you’re a genius. But if it doesn’t…woof.

Wilson put all her usual energy and creativity into her game last weekend. She ran through her full repertoire, what Carlisle-sensei described as “…pure menace…acceleration, close control, strength and balance. She uses it to absorb contact, run by defenders, and finds ways to put shots on goal. It’s her primary directive on the pitch, and over the course of several years she’s rarely fail(ed) to deliver.”

But as we’ve seen this season, Wilson can be defeated when those qualities aren’t quite fitted together right, and her opponent has a solid plan to deflect them and sticks to it. In Washington Adrián González had the plan and his midfield and backline stuck to it. The pressing disrupted Portland playing out of the back, the marking cut down Wilson’s options, shielding her off her teammates and closing down her looks at goal.

And the results were that Wilson sucked up a lot of Portland attacking energy – 5 of 11 shots, 3 of 7 shots on target, 0.45 of 1.36xG – but couldn’t find the goals she and her squad needed to get the result.

That’s why, as we’ll discuss, the RAJ organization needs to do some really serious thinking about what they want for next season, beginning with “can we re-sign Wilson?” and then, assuming that answer is “yes”, keep going into the lessons-learned from this season, “now what do we do to change the squad from what we saw last season to make her and them more effective?”

That’s…let’s just say I’m glad I’m not the one that has to do all those.

Tordin (+7/-1 : +6/-1 : +13/-2) Having just gone through all that, the most-effective-Thorn and Woman of the Match at Audi has to go to Pietra Tordin. Tordin continued working the line of attack despite the plan to run that attack through Wilson. Her persistence paid off with the only Thorns goal, and it’s hard not to wonder what might have been had the coaching staff been willing to make the tactical changes to make Wilson the distraction and Tordin the focus, turn Wilson into the matador’s cape and Tordin the sword.

We’re going to discuss this more in a bit, but one huge piece of the “How Do You Fix A Problem Like Sophia?” discussion mentioned above is the “Where and How Do These Other Attackers Fit In?” question. Because for all that Wilson is the complete striker her attacking teammates all have various strengths as well as some weaknesses. Tordin, to my mind, is the closest to the “Complete Wilson Package” right now. Gorgeous, silken ball skills, pace, strength, vision…you’d think that somehow a gifted manager could craft some sort of setup that melds the strengths of both players into a kind of self-reinforcing symbiosis, a “sum greater than the parts” kind of strike partnership.

If that someone, whoever it turns out to be, can do that?

Dammit, I want to be here to see it.

Hanks (+8/-3 : +2/-2 : +10/-5) Having spent the first quarter of this page praising two of this squad’s attackers as nearly-perfect now we come to the “good but…” part of the forward roster.

Caiya Hanks has a number of terrific qualities, beginning with her blistering pace. Given the right service Hanks can reliably blow through most defenses, or find space wide to drive to the byline and cross or cut back inside. She’s got a monster engine and just doesn’t stop running at you.

She also has some visible shortcomings. Her touch isn’t reliable; worse, it’s prone to let her down at the worst times. as the screenshots of her 28th minute attack illustrate. She can struggle with picking her head up and her teammates out. None of these are insurmountable, all of them interfere with her integration into an “attacking scheme”; any tactical plan a gaffer is thinking of implementing needs to take those weaknesses into account along with Hanks’ strengths.

This was on display at Audi. OPTA shows that Hanks completed only 3 of 8 passes (only 1 of 6 inside Washington’s half). Sofascore is harsher; only 3 of 7, no “key passes”, and only 1 of 5 in the attacking half). Yet Hanks had the highest xG-per-shot of any Portland attacker (look back up at the table; the closest is Weaver, but that 0.26 is per shot on target; if you look at all attempts Hanks is the most efficient and dangerous of the top four).

You’d think that there’s a lot to work with there, and I think you’d be right. But, as with Tordin, it’s not as simple as “throw ’em out there and let ’em play”. There needs to be a tactical system that integrates Hanks’ pace with Tordin’s moves with Wilson’s, well, everything…and technical coaching to work with Hanks to refine her touch and expand her vision.

Fleming (+8/-3 : +7/-1 : +15/-4) Here we go again.

Fleming’s strengths – unrelenting hard work and field vision, tough pressing and tackling, good distribution – were on display. So were her – or, more precisely, her coach’s midfield setup – issues; one-off pressing and lack of coordinated coverage that allowed repeated Washington line-breaking passing through to (or above to) their forwards.

Fleming’s Audi last Sunday was sort of her and her squad’s 2026 writ small; lots of good ideas and individual skills but problems assembling those into a cohesive effort of the pitch and a consistent effort across matches. And perhaps what troubles me most about this season’s squad; that there seems to be a problem with getting the senpais – the veterans, the senior on-field players who should be the “team leaders” – to get their squad in hand, keep heads cool and nerves steeled.

When Washington came out pressing high and hard – which, as he’s already admitted, Coach Vilahamn knew about but had no plan to combat – Fleming, who’s seen this Washington squad repeatedly and Washington’s skill players like Rodman both in the league and as internationals, should have been able to step up and knock some heads. “ Settle down! This is what these bee-yotches fucking do, and here’s how we un-fuck ourselves..!”

That didn’t happen, and as we’ve discussed here already several times this season, and has been happening; instead the squad seems to come apart under pressure.

I’m not saying that it’s part of Fleming’s job to prevent that. But all teams need someone or someones like that. Portland has been uniquely blessed with a string of players who played that role, going back to Christine Sinclair and running through Meghan Klingenberg and Emily Menges to today. Who steps up to play that role for the 2027 squad? Fleming? She seems like a terrific candidate, but I’d sure like to see more of it from her.

Nijstad ( 51′ – +4/-1 : +1/-0 : +5/-1) Last Sunday was a “Nijstad off day”; Fleming was carrying much of the defensive load as well as the going-forward passing. Nijstad pitched in when she could but was much less involved, and so it wasn’t surprising that just before the hour she was subbed off for…

Weaver ( 31′ – +4/-0) Morgan Weaver is beginning to remind me of Meg Morris. I don’t know how many of you remember little Morris, a hard-as-woodpecker-lips defender for the Parsons Thorns who suffered a horrific hip fracture and was out over a year rehabbing.

When she returned…ouch. She was visibly in pain, and her pace was gone. She just couldn’t play, even at a purely replacement-level. Consistent with her spirit she tried, but her body was just too broken.

Weaver…looks increasing similar. All the drive, all the energy, all the knowledge and instincts are there. But her body just doesn’t seem to be able to turn that into effective soccer. She’ll score a banger or two, but overall she’s just kind of there.

What I’m hoping is that a full off-season of more rehab and training will allow Weaver to find ways to adapt her game to her new body, and train her body to do some of the things she used to do in different but more effective ways.

What I fear is that she’s bone-on-bone and her legs will look back at her and laugh bitterly. Fuck but I know that laugh. It’s misery, and if that’s her fate, I’m sorry; sorry for what was, sorry for what might have been. I hope not, because, goddamn. That would suck.

Muller ( 38′ – +1/-3) As I noted, the 38th minute subs were both unfortunate and unavoidable. Unfortunate because of how starkly they showed the squad’s collapse under Washington’s repeated punch-in-the-mouth aggression, unavoidable because at that point Coach Vilahamn had to do something to shore up the squad.

And it worked, sorta. But the need to make the swap just pointed out the problems with this roster’s construction. The fullback-as-winger experiment was exposed as the spit-and-bailing-wire contraption it was, but all replacing Muller with Turner did was stop the slide. Because…

Turner ( 52′ – +1/-1 : +2/-0 : +3/-1) …is a perfectly solid attacking piece but not a game-changing sort of super-sub. She did all the positive things she does; ran hard, got into some space, drew some fouls. That wasn’t enough; she had no shots, only 7 passes completed of 16 attempted with no “key passes”, lost 10 of 21 touches and was moving backwards (-15 meters “progression”) more often than not.

Like Hanks, like Weaver, presumably like the reserves such as Lyles and Dufour, Turner seems to have the skills to make up part of a dangerous attacking side. That she isn’t now seems clear, though. What we need to know is; is that her shortcomings? Is it her coach’s vision not suiting her skills? Something of both?

Reyes (+3/-3 : +5/-3 : +8/-6) Given the magnitude of the thrashing Washington gave Portland’s defense it’s difficult to hand a rose to any particular defender. And Reyes certainly had her “awshit” moment, that being in the 58th minute when she was ballwatching as Rodman slipped in behind her to pot Luvanga’s cross for concession number four.

Shit. Ouch. Yeah, that’s ugly.

Given the day the rest of her backline sisters had, though? It could have been worse.

Perry ( 88′ (RC) – +1/-2 : +4/-6 : +5/-8) What were we just saying? Oh, yeah. Yep. This was worse, and to add depitude to injury young Perry got tossed in garbage time for a dumb foul.

I don’t know what this unit needs, but it needs someone. Something. Becky Sauerbrunn overseeing training days with, I dunno, a cattle prod, maybe? Replacing Vytas with someone who can get the backline to work together for multiple-full-90s? I know there’s both a skill-deficit and an inexperience problem here, but the sheer magnitude of some of these derps…sheesh.

The prematch analyses that picked on Portland’s defending were, sadly, spot on. Between lack of cover from the DMs, lack of understanding within the backline, and lack of fundamental individual back and goalkeeping Soccer-101-level play the Thorns defensive position turned out to be a mess of shallow foxholes that Washington’s battalion-6 barrage just blew completely to hell.

My question now is, simply, how fixable is this unit? What pieces can be repaired and sent back into battle, which are just wrecked and can only be hauled away to be sold off for parts. I don’t have that answer, but someone will have to.

FWIW, we’re going to take a deep dive into the defense this off-season. We need to look hard at the various defensive sets, including the DMs, to see if there’s a way to answer that “who can be fixed?” question. We’ll see if that helps enlighten us on that subject.

Obaze ( 73′ – +3/-7 : +1/-2 : +4/-9) Seldom has a Thorns defender had a worse half than Isabella Obaze had in Washington. Huge individual errors on both the second and third concession, having just combined with Perry to be utterly skinned by Luvanga in the 30th minute. Indeed, Luvanga ate Obaze’s lunch all match, including the juicebox and the Otis Spunkmeyer chocolate chip cookie.

The thing is, Obaze has been among the better Thorns centerbacks this season. Certainly better than Hiatt, typically better than Calzada, she’s been what looked like the best pairing with Perry across the matches they’ve started. But, like the deceptive results against Carolina and Houston in the run-up to the playoffs, how much of that was “Obaze and Perry are a good CB pairing” and how much was “Gee these opponents really suck”?

Again…I think we need to break down the Thorns defending sets against opponent quality to see if there is anything there.

We’re just fans, though. The club is supposed to have stats and analysis people who should be doing that in real time. The owners, the GM, the HC should already know the answers to those and more questions to help them make good off-season roster and acquisition decisions.

Emphasis on “… should already know…”

Hiatt ( 17′ – +1/-1) I got nothin’. If you have to yank a centerback to either turn the match around or to yeet a player who’s in catastrophic meltdown Perry would be my pick for “CB who looked worse by the 73rd minute”. Part of the mystery inside an enigma that is so often this club’s management.

Calzada ( 38′ – +1/-2) This move was clearly a “player who’s in a catastrophic meltdown” decision, and, sadly for Calzada, it worked to show just how bad a day the poor rook was having. Again, we need to step back and look at her work across the season. Everyone has a bad day or two, even one as big a flaming disaster as Calzada had in D.C. Is there anything salvageable here? I hope so; the kid had some decent outings. But…damn. This one’s gonna bring her bolting out of a sound sleep, sweating and shaking, for weeks to come, I think.

Vignola ( 52′ – +1/-1 : +4/-2 : +5/-3) She didn’t have to be great, and she wasn’t. But Vignola had to be better than Calzada and she was. Not really good enough, but as good as she could be, and that is really all you could ask. Tough way to crash out of the season.

Arnold (+1/-1 : +0/-1 : +1/-2) I’ve been solidly in the anti-anti-Arnold camp all season. This match, though…ugh. I’m ready to accept that one of the moves the FO needs to make this offseason is to unload her contract. Bixby should be ready to go next spring, and my thought is that the team might as well give her the starting job and make it hers to lose. If she can’t hack it? Messner looked promising in her three matches this spring.

Not really at fault on the other three concessions…but the second was an awshit of galactic dimension; “a clusterfuck of epic proportions” as one of my first sergeants described our company’s collapse in one ARTEP mission. Throw in the usual distribution problems and her shot-stopping becomes less of a job-saver. Sorry, Macca. It’s not…yeah, okay, it is you. Time to put out the lights.

Coach Vilahamn: So.

My overall opinion about the Swedish Chef remains unchanged. I think he’s a replacement-level head coach at best. The squad overperformed early in the season – any analysis of his 2026 record that gives excessive weight to early season wins like Washington and Kansas City away or Seattle here completely misses that the Spirit and Current were messes in March and April and that the Seattle match, fun as it was, was pure squad-level gutting out and Laura Harvey fuckups – and has been slowly descending (what the FAA calls “a controlled flight into terrain”) through the season.

Vilahamn’s work this year was at best a C-minus, even giving him a break for the shamefully slow hiring process that shoved him into the technical box the morning before Opening Day.

But it’s now too late – again – to give him the sack and start yet another search. Like it or not, and I don’t, much, I think we’re stuck with him for at least the opening of next season.

He and Agoos have got to work together, work quickly and intelligently, this off-season to resolve much uncertainty and fix obvious problems.

Starting with the biggest. the goalkeepers and backline.

So much fan and pundit chatter has focused on the centerbacks that it’s important to remember how this club has acquired their former high-value CBs.

Leaving out Rachel Beuhler, who was allocated, Emily Menges was a virtual unknown plucked out of college when she was signed in 2014. Becky Sauerbrunn was on the downward arc of her distinguished career (and was set on playing here for various reasons). Assuming – hoping! – that Wilson re-signs, that’s a huge chunk of cap space. How much Bhathal Bux might remain to sign a Naomi Girma-grade CB?

Roster building is a damn tough job. I’ve hammered on this before, but Thorns team history suggests that the club has had only two truly huge off-seasons; the 2012-2013 initial team construction (which included so much “NWSL 1.0” elements like national team allocation that it’s almost impossible to equate with the current free agent era) and 2015-2016 Parsons rebuild.

Those and other Thorns roster builds included otherwise-unheralded players like Menges and Hina Sugita and Kat Reynolds and Sam Coffey who were just names to us as fans, but were known to either the then-head-coaches or the then-GM Gavin Wilkinson.

After Parsons left and Wilkinson was gated, it’s difficult to overestimate how badly the club was damaged by Karina LeBlanc’s time as GM, and it’s still difficult to assess what the conditions are with Agoos in the GM slot. What the hell does Mike Norris do as “technical director”? How does Vilahamn fit in?

Whatever all these people did this season, they now have about four or five months to come up with a vision for 2027 and make the moves – releases and trades and signings, and then training and testing and evaluating – to bring the club to Opening Day in shape to make a better run at the title.

That’s not much time and a lot to do. During that time we’re going to take a look back at the past season and a look ahead to what the next might be. No matter the rain or shine, as the song says, this is still our team, the mighty PTFC.

13 thoughts on “ Thorns FC: Damn, that was ugly ” Three months. We’ve got three months to right the ship, as the season starts on Feb. 13. It’s early because of the World Cup break next summer.

I have next to zero belief that Agoos can fix things before then. Perhaps because of his inexperience, or perhaps because of temperament, he just moves too slowly. And he doesn’t seem to be able to execute the jaw-dropping kinds of deals that brought Lindsey (Horan) Heaps or Sophia (Smith) Wilson here, nor to uncover hidden diamonds like Sam Coffey. We were hurt a lot by Moultrie’s injury, but we were hurt even more by our roster deficiencies. I’ve come to agree that Vilahamn is an average-level NWSL coach, but I think our real deficit is in the roster. Fans have been yelling about our defense for two years now, ever since Sauerbrunn retired, and all we’ve done is sign college students and replacement-level players. Although it’s hard to tell given the lack of communication, I don’t see Agoos pulling off anything special for us this offseason.

Also I really don’t know how well the Bhathals are backing the team. *Does* Agoos have available the maximum amount of money under the salary cap to spend? For instance, I think Agoos could have put Wilson on an HIP contract to make more money available under the cap. (This would have required her to tear up the last half-year of her current contract, but I’m sure she could be talked into this if the HIP deal were slightly better.) This didn’t happen. Did something prevent it, did Agoos just not think of it, did the Bhathals not want to spend, or what? We could’ve had a better team.

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February? February?!? The league thinks the weather in Chicago is gonna be good to play soccer? Are they all fucking high in the league front office? Jesus wept.

As for the off-season…we’ll see. If there is as little progress as you anticipate? It’ll certainly tell us something uncomplimentary about the owners and the GM. But Vilahamn? I’d buy the “he wasn’t the problem, his roster was the problem” more if we had seen some tactical shifts to deal with those roster problems.

We didn’t, meaning either that 1) Vilahamn didn’t recognize them AS problems (meaning his ability to work with players’ skills and weaknesses is catastrophically poor) or he did and didn’t have any ideas on HOW to fix the problems (meaning his tactical and organizational skills are in the dumpster). Either way? That’s a coaching problem on TOP of a roster problem.

Well. It’ll be what it’ll be, and we’re gonna be along for the ride. It could be – take if from a long-suffering former Newcastle fan – a hell of a fucking bumpy one.

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Didn’t know you are a *former* Geordie. Sorry to hear it, but I guess that’s what happens when MBS (Mohammed Bone Saw) buys your club.

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The worst part was that the Toon Army labored under the penny-pinching reign of Mike Fucking Ashley for years, watching him spend nothing and win nothing, watching the Lads struggle along as mid-table dross. Until finally, hurrah! the cheap bastard sells us…

…TO THE FUCKING SAUDIS!!!!!!

That was it. That was the straw. I gave up. I won’t support the goddamn sheiks.

But if the neoliberal era has taught us nothing else, it should have taught us that having a shitpot of money doesn’t make you smarter or more competent than some schlub working the day greeter shift at WallyMart. I hope the Bhathals ARE smart and competent enough to succeed in NWSL 2.0.

But at this point I don’t think we can say that. They did the bare minimum – signed Wilson – but I wouldn’t say they killed it on anything else Thorns related. The hoopla about the training facility is…well, do we see anything startling emerging about, oh, say, the Thorns’ players endurance or strength or fitness? It’s nice to have, sure, but has it made any actual difference in luring players, or even reducing things like ACL injury rates on the squad?

Like I said; we’ll see. I’m still hoping for the best. But I won’t be shocked if it doesn’t arrive…

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At least they’re not as batshit bonkers as whoever’s heading things up over on the men’s side, with their decision to make the whole goddamn thing a winter schedule. Starting next year, they’re doing it like the Europeans do.

Good luck to ’em. They’re gonna need it. And maybe with Men’s Game Money they can install fancy under pitch heating or something.

But yeah. It’s an issue. And it’s going to get even worse the longer Berman keeps chasing franchise fees like a terrier after rats.

I like the current league structure. Sixteen is a good number. Powers of two make the math neat, and thirty games in a season plus up to three postseason games isn’t insane. But if we go higher we’ll have to split into conferences; we’ll lose some of the straightforward “this feels completely fair” double round robin magic, as well as the hope of seeing our favorite players who happen not to play for the Thorns at Providence Park in any given year.

I’m afraid that 2027 will be the last year that the league structure doesn’t make my brain hurt.

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Well. Year in the bin. Thoughts.

Thanks.

I’m not a long-time Riveter. I moved to Portland a few months before the NWSL kicked off and pro soccer never grabbed me. Not until this summer, when a Jordanian friend dragooned me into watching the World Cup and something clicked. I got the hype at last, or at least part of it. And then I remembered 1999, and instead of the Timbers I picked the Thorns.

My first game at Providence Park was the first Gotham game. I had little idea what was going on, no idea who any of these people were, but I was determined to give it a proper shot. And damn if I didn’t fall in love with the Thorns after all.

And then I found this here blog, and the prediction game, and I thought – yes.

It’s been a rough year to be a Thorns fan. A rough back half of the year as an introduction to the club. But being able to come here and be geeky and play silly games and share in the ups and downs has been fantastic. Zero regrets.

So thanks, John. And Dave, and Barca, and everyone else in this nerdy little corner of the Internet. Thanks for making me welcome. I was late to the party but it’s a flipping blast.

Next year in Goose Hollow. 🌹

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Happy that you jumped on board!

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You’ve added some excellent content; I’m very glad you peeked in and like this joint enough to stay. We’ll be there in February (February! …the fuck? What an idiotic notion…”) to see how we look for 2027. Onward Rose City!

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I agree with your opinion on Vilahamn. I have also found that Villain has solved none of the problems that previously plagued us and has kept the same play style, which, in my opinion, is just not very fun to watch. The Thorns have one of the highest attendance figures in the NWSL, and one of their only ways to get an advantage out of that is to spend big on a coach because of the salary cap. So to go with such a terrible coach baffles me. In my opinion, they should start looking for a top-level coach, and when they find one, fire Vilahamn.

Wilson: I find that she really lacks effort when she plays. Sure, she will work in the big moments, but in the press she only half-heartedly runs, and it is infuriating to watch. She also only has 9 penalty goals on 12.5 non penalty xg and in my opinion, this is simply not a player who is worth it if it means making sacrifices everywhere else in the team.

I was also curious how many people read your game reports and if you think anyone from the Thorns reads these?

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I’m not sure what kinds of contacts Agoos or the Bhathals have in women’s soccer, or soccer in general. I suspect that money in itself isn’t the key; a really gifted manager is going to want a fair amount of control over roster and matchday decisions and know that the GM/owners will go after and spend for player(s) central to the manager’s vision.

I hope that 2026 wasn’t Vilahamn’s “vision” for this club, and he’s got a whole file of ideas that he can work with Agoos to find , and with the Bhathals sign, the sort of players he needs to make that vision work like a mechanical ass-kicker.

I’m sorry, but Wilson is anything but a player that’s “Not worth it”. She’s a top class striker, one of a handful in the world at that level. She isn’t her best this season for a number of reasons, so her own form but many of them coaching or roster issues.

A typical “Thorns FC:” post may get about 80-100 views. Small change compared to Stumptown. That’s fine; I write this for myself, because I enjoy it. If it entertains a dozen other people? I’m happy with that.

I dunno about this joint, but yes. people on the team do read the local sport blogs. Again, Stumptown definitely; I got a nastygram from (IIRC) Hayley Raso saying she unsubscribed from Stumptown because my column the during the 2018 season was so mean. This little blog, tho? Probably not much if at all.

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Good and thorough write up John. I feel mentally exhausted after this season. As you know I am almost pathetic optimist and homer regarding this team and my guesses each week that are totally shite.

The players on the other hand are a great group of young women that seem to get along well, so likeable and there are no obvious locker room problems like there were in 2013 and at the end 2022 with the Wilkenson/Mengis imbroglio.

So, there is a nice social cohesion and you want the best for them, but when they play on weekends there is some sort of disaster every single week. Tactically, as you comment, they are a mess. Really hard to watch sometimes.

Part of me thinks what can a coach really do? Actually, only so much with players who may have never had great coaches or never had the chance to play for amateur clubs before going Pro, like Heaps, Wilson and most of the European players? But the Thorns have and have had some very skilled players like Morgan, Heath, Wilson, Coffey, Sauerbrunn, Moultrie and Tordin that have come up in the US system and are good technicians rather than just good athletes. Calzada is the classic example of a really good athlete that may never be a really good CB or FB. In a crunch, she doesn’t know what to do.

I agree with Kielbj over on STF that few if any coaches in the NWSL could do much with the four Thorns CBs. So that shifts the blame for that bad defense to the Front Office.

On the other hand, the FBs, Midfielders, Wingers and Strikers are, I think, a pretty talented bunch that are playing like don’t practice together, that is not lack of talent, it seems to me to be a lack of tactical alignment, a consistent strategy and training. That is all on the coach.

I like Vilahamn, but I won’t be surprised or unhappy if he is replaced. If he isn’t replaced I will be cheering for him to figure it out in the off season.

I do remember Meg Morris and I pray that is not Morgan Weavers fate. Morris when she would come steaming up to somebody to defend you could see them flinch. She was like a runaway engine. So fun to watch! But Wow! how many players in the NWSL have broke their hip!

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Simply put, the manager/head coach sets the team up to play.

She determines the tactics and techniques, outlines the style of play (slow, fast, possession, defend-and-counter, bunker, whatever), and sets up the XI both to execute that style and to gain the best matchups against the opponent.

Then, on matchday, she makes adjustments to the opponent, the game state, and her own squad’s form.

So “what can a coach really do”?

EVERYTHING.

Without the gaffer’s vision for the squad, training, matchday management, it’s a no more than fucking rec league team; eleven people running around a grassy field with a ball.

So, again; if the problem was that Vilahamn didn’t have any replacement-level centerbacks..? Why wasn’t he slapping Agoos upside the head to change that? Why didn’t he try different formations and tactics? Setting up this squad to defend-and-counter when you don’t have an solid centerbacks? Routinely giving your opponent 60% of the possession to threaten your own goal? Why the fuck would you want to do that? You KNOW that your CBs will get tested by that, and since you know your CBs are shit, well…

So I think at least at the moment Vilahamn looks like what his 2026 record says he is; an upper-mid-table, barely-makes-the-postseason kind of coach.

If he gets a full off-season and his roster either improves or doesn’t get significantly worse, and his 2027 is pretty similar to this season?

We should see Lowdon as interim and a new HC search beginning by the World Cup break if not sooner.

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Thanks for your work this year. It couldn’t have been easy to watch AND analyze the team and its struggles this year. It was really hard for me to watch the team regress over the year, and simply not address the problems that were very apparent.

Unfortunately I think we are going to see it run back next year, as I don’t see ownership addressing the Agoos issue, nor do I see Agoos addressing the Vilahamn issue. The one thing that would make it more tenable would be to have the team hire a coach who is totally focused on the defensive side of things. While I get the player issue, I am more and more convinced that the team is playing defense the way they are being coached to play defense. When a player does the same thing over and over again, it is either because they can’t change what they are doing (talent) or they are being told to do it by the coaches. It has to change, or the team will be stuck where it is.

Hopefully the team figures things out, because there should be a lot of soul-searching in the offseason. Its a good team, it should be much better.

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