<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1i2rQ8_1Gxma37l00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1i2rQ8_1Gxma37l00" width="984" height="808" ></figure>SynopsisConfidence is increasing in a prolonged storm system impacting the region Thursday into the weekend.This looks like a multi-part setup, with an initial inland low followed by coastal redevelopment Thursday night into Friday — and possibly another coastal low Friday into Saturday.For the Hudson Valley, rain will dominate at first.As colder air filters in, wet snow becomes increasingly likely across the Catskills and other higher elevations, especially above roughly 1,500 feet. Some accumulation is becoming likely there.Valley locations could see wet snow mix in Friday night into Saturday, but meaningful accumulation currently looks much less likely, especially on paved surfaces.The bigger questions now are how quickly the colder air arrives, how long precipitation persists, and whether the second coastal low develops strongly enough to prolong the event.Short version:– Rain arrives Thursday– Higher terrain mixes with snow Thursday night into Friday– Accumulating snow increasingly likely in the mountains– Valley wet snow possible Friday night/Saturday– A second coastal low may keep precipitation going into Saturday– Improving SundayThis is shaping up as much more of an elevation-dependent November storm than a widespread Hudson Valley snow event.Nerd Alert below for the full breakdown.Nerd Alert BelowConfidence continues to increase that a developing storm system will bring a prolonged stretch of unsettled weather to the Hudson Valley and Catskills beginning Thursday and lasting into the weekend.This is not looking like one clean, fast-moving storm.Instead, the pattern favors an initial inland low Thursday, followed by coastal redevelopment Thursday night into Friday — and potentially a second coastal low developing Friday into Saturday.That means several rounds of precipitation may move through before the entire system finally pulls away Sunday.THURSDAYThe first surge of moisture arrives from the southwest.For most of the Hudson Valley, this begins as rain.Across the higher elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens and Berkshires, temperatures will be cold enough for some wet snow to mix in, particularly as you climb above roughly 1,500 feet.Any early accumulation Thursday should generally be light and confined to the highest terrain.THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYThis is when the pattern becomes more interesting.As upper-level energy reaches the coast, the original inland low begins weakening while a new coastal low develops offshore.That transfer should keep moisture streaming into the region.Valleys remain primarily rain through much of Friday, while colder air gradually filters into the higher elevations.That should allow rain to increasingly mix with or change to wet snow across the mountains.The Euro graphic attached shows this transition well — widespread rain through the Hudson Valley with snow becoming more established across the higher terrain.FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAYA second piece of energy may help develop another coastal low along roughly the same corridor.If that occurs, precipitation could continue well into Saturday.By this point colder air should be better established across the region.For the valleys, that opens the door for some wet snow to begin mixing in Friday night into Saturday morning.But there’s an important distinction here:Snow falling does not automatically mean snow accumulating.Temperatures near the valley floor will be marginal, ground temperatures remain relatively mild, and precipitation may become lighter by the time the coldest air arrives.So at this stage we are NOT expecting a significant valley snowstorm.Higher terrain is another story.Above roughly 1,500 feet, confidence is increasing in at least some accumulation.Current guidance supports roughly a 60–70% chance of 2”+ across portions of the higher terrain, with locally greater totals certainly possible depending on how the coastal lows evolve.For the Catskills, especially the higher peaks, this is becoming a legitimate early-season snow event to watch.VALLEY VS. MOUNTAIN FORECASTHudson Valley:– Rain Thursday into Friday– Periods of rain continue Friday– Some wet snow may mix in Friday night/Saturday-Accumulation currently looks unlikely on paved surfacesCatskills / higher terrain:– Rain initially Thursday– Increasing wet snow Thursday night into Friday– Better opportunity for accumulation Friday night into Saturday– Highest elevations could see several inches depending on precipitation intensity and storm trackWHY THIS FORECAST IS STILL TRICKYThere are two separate coastal-development opportunities showing up in the guidance.The first coastal low develops Thursday night into Friday.A second may form Friday and follow a similar path.Small differences in where those lows develop and how quickly colder air arrives will determine:• How much precipitation falls• How quickly rain changes to snow• How low the accumulating snow line gets• Whether precipitation remains steady enough to overcome marginal valley temperaturesGFS Model:European Model<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=0AzkaI_1Gxma37l00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=0AzkaI_1Gxma37l00" width="984" height="807" ></figure>The Euro and GFS agree reasonably well on the larger idea, but they still differ on exactly where the coastal lows develop and how precipitation wraps back into the region.That’s what we’ll be watching over the next 24–48 hours.BOTTOM LINE– A prolonged period of unsettled weather begins Thursday– Rain will be the dominant precipitation type initially– Higher elevations increasingly mix with/change to snow Thursday night into Friday– Accumulating snow is becoming increasingly likely across the higher terrain– Some wet snow may eventually reach the valleys Friday night into Saturday, but meaningful valley accumulation currently looks unlikely– A second coastal low may prolong precipitation into Saturday– System should finally begin departing SundayThis looks much more like a classic November elevation-dependent storm than a widespread Hudson Valley snowstorm.For the valleys: mostly wet.For the mountains: increasingly white.</div></body>

Block Source: hudsonvalleyweather.com

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Confidence is increasing in a prolonged storm system impacting the region Thursday into the weekend. This looks like a multi-part setup, with an initial inland low followed by coastal redevelopment Thursday night into Friday — and possibly another coastal low Friday into Saturday. For the Hudson Valley, rain will...

NOR’EASTER UPDATE — RAIN FIRST, THEN A COLDER MIX WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY

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Confidence is increasing in a prolonged storm system impacting the region Thursday into the weekend. This looks like a multi-part setup, with an initial in

NOR’EASTER UPDATE — RAIN FIRST, THEN A COLDER MIX WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY

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